China Desk · 2026-09-29

China Desk Digest 2026-09-29

Copper Term Structure Holds Steep Backwardation Into Holiday

SHFE copper's front-month spread stayed in backwardation, with the October contract at 109,980 versus November at 109,300, a 680 yuan gap (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). That 0.62% premium signals continued tightness in nearby availability, and the main month held at 2611 with no roll (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). Spot activity was muted ahead of the long holiday, with traders reporting quiet last-day trading (SMM South China spot copper, 2026-09-29). Desk note: backwardation this steep rewards holding physical metal, but thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves.

Rebar Contango Deepens as Steel Margins Stay Under Pressure

SHFE rebar's curve flipped further into contango, with October at 3,041 against November at 3,101, a negative 60 yuan spread equal to -1.93% (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). The main month remained on 2701 with no roll (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). Daytime trading showed rebar up just 0.16% while iron ore slipped 0.78% and coking coal fell 0.28% (SMM_CN, 2026-09-29). The persistent contango tells traders that near-term demand is weak relative to expected supply, and cost-side support from raw materials is fading.

Gold Bounces From Multi-Month Low as Yields Ease Slightly

Spot gold rebounded to near $4,156.42/oz, up 1.02% on the day, after Monday's plunge to $4,110, the weakest since Aug 5 (Sina_Futures, 2026-09-29). The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.23%, just below Monday's 5.27%, the highest since 2007 (Sina_Futures, 2026-09-29). SHFE gold stayed in mild contango, with October at 895.2 versus November at 896.54 (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). Heraeus sees China on pace to import 1,700 tonnes of gold in 2026, with silver facing a key test near $60/oz (SMM_EN, 2026-09-29).

Silver Curve Rolls to December as Metal Battles Key Level

SHFE silver's main month rolled from 2610 to 2612, the only roll across the tracked contracts (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). The curve stayed in contango, with October at 14,861 versus November at 14,894, a negative 33 yuan spread (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-29). The broader metals tape showed silver under pressure alongside gold, platinum, palladium and alumina, while polysilicon led declines at -2.41% (SMM_CN, 2026-09-29). Heraeus flags silver's test near $60/oz as pivotal for the precious complex (SMM_EN, 2026-09-29).

Yangshan Premiums Climb as Import Demand Firms

Yangshan copper warrant averages rose 2.00 to 119.00, while bill of lading prices also gained 2.00 to 114.00 (Yangshan copper premium, as of 2026-09-29). The parallel move across both instruments suggests genuine import appetite rather than a paper-driven shift. That aligns with expectations that China's refined copper output growth will slow sharply in 2026 amid feedstock constraints (SMM_EN, 2026-09-29). Desk note: rising Yangshan premiums alongside a steep SHFE backwardation point to tighter onshore availability, though holiday-thinned liquidity can distort signals.

Data provenance

• China domestic term structure (M1-M2 spread, main contract) as of 2026-09-29
• Yangshan copper premium (USD/t) as of 2026-09-29
• China headlines, 2026-09-29
• English-native China flashes — SMM_EN / Mysteel_EN, 2026-09-29