China Desk Digest 2026-10-25
SHFE Copper Backwardation Deepens as LME Cancelled Warrants Surge
SHFE copper M1-M2 spread widened to 820 yuan/mt (0.76%) on October 23, extending backwardation as the main month rolled from December to January. LME cancelled warrants jumped 52,900 tonnes (19.38% ratio), the highest among base metals, pressuring SHFE copper’s premium and signaling robust downstream demand despite elevated LME inventory overhang. (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-23), (LME warrant data, as of 2026-10-23)
SHFE Zinc Backwardation Persists on Strong Physical Premiums
SHFE zinc M1-M2 spread expanded to 29 yuan/mt (0.95%) in backwardation, with the main month rolling from January to February, while LME cancelled warrants rose 33,375 tonnes (19.98% ratio), the second-largest cancellation among base metals. Physical zinc premiums in North China strengthened on steady demand follow-up, offsetting LME stock overhang and supporting near-term bullish bias. (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-23), (LME warrant data, as of 2026-10-23)
SHFE Aluminum Contango Unchanged as Yangshan Premiums Climb
SHFE aluminum M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.16 yuan/mt (-0.25%) in contango, with the main month steady at December, while Yangshan average premiums for both warehouse and delivery tickets rose 10 yuan/mt, reflecting tight physical supply and seasonal restocking. China’s coal port arrivals fell 4% week-on-week to 8.1 million tonnes, constraining alumina feedstock availability and reinforcing aluminum’s contango structure. (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-23), (Yangshan copper premium, as of 2026-10-23)
Data provenance
- China domestic term structure (M1-M2 spread, main contract) as of 2026-10-23
- LME cancelled warrants as of 2026-10-23
- Yangshan copper premium (USD/t) as of 2026-10-23
- China headlines, 2026-10-25
- English-native China flashes — SMM_EN / Mysteel_EN, 2026-10-25
Sources
- China Merchants Strategy: A-share indicators near historical bottom range CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-25 21:44
- Shentong Express: Anti-involution trend in courier industry expected to persist CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-25 20:26
- Gaozhengmin Bao Plans Share Issuance to Acquire Assets, Stock Suspended CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-25 15:41
- Johnson & Johnson's First RIPTAC™ Molecule JNJ-6143 Achieves 75% Tumor Response Rate in Late-Stage Prostate Cancer CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-25 15:32
- Trump says he could strike Iran at any time or reach an agreement CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-25 13:28
- Houthis Claim Saudi Arabia Launched 100 Air Strikes in 24 Hours CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-25 05:18
- [SMM Coal and Coke Shipping] China's coal port arrivals last week were 8.1 million mt, down 4% WoW and up 9% YoY SMM_EN · 2026-10-25 18:06
- Steady demand follow-up; North China copper cathode premium strengthens [SMM North China spot copper] SMM_EN · 2026-10-25 12:00
- China Weekly Aluminum Ingot Warehouse Withdrawals Statistics for October 26, 2026 (10.19-10.25) [SMM Data] SMM_EN · 2026-10-25 12:00
- Copper prices surge despite continued inventory declines, downstream purchasing weakens [SMM South China spot copper] SMM_EN · 2026-10-25 12:00
- China Destocking Continues to Support, Ex-China Supply Caps Upside [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary] SMM_EN · 2026-10-25 12:00
- [SMM Iron Ore] Imported iron ore margin widens to 4.57 yuan/mt on firmer spot prices SMM_EN · 2026-10-25 12:00
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