1. Executive Summary
Commodities closed the 2025-01-29 session with a clear bifurcation between precious and base metals on one side and the energy complex on the other. Spot gold finished at 2769.10, up 0.08% on the day, while silver outperformed with a 1.66% gain to 31.238. Copper rose 0.88% to 4.2575, and soybeans added 1.48% to 1060.50. In energy, crude oil was the notable laggard, settling at 72.62 for a decline of 1.56%, whereas natural gas rebounded 1.84% to 3.535 after a volatile stretch that has seen the front month fall 10.73% over five sessions and 10.19% over twenty sessions.
The dominant macro driver was the Federal Reserve's policy decision on 2025-01-29. According to the Federal Reserve, the Committee left rates unchanged, made no mention of balance-sheet or purchase adjustments, described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, characterized the unemployment rate as having stabilized at a low level, and noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated. The guidance was read as neutral. The effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33%, the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.15%, and the 10-year nominal yield at 4.55%. The dollar index was quoted at 108.00, and the VIX at 16.56.
Positioning data from the CFTC for the week ended 2025-01-28 revealed the most consequential flow of the session: crude oil net length dropped 55,914 lots to 191,531, a substantial reduction in bullish exposure. Gold net length eased 5,329 lots to 210,540, silver fell 3,271 lots to 25,950, and copper declined 2,772 lots to 16,542. Natural gas was the sole major contract to add length, rising 4,742 lots to 52,641.
The primary risk factor for today is the combination of a still-restrictive real rate backdrop, a firm dollar, and the aggressive liquidation of crude oil length. With the 10-year yield at 4.55% and the dollar at 108.00, the cost of carry for long commodity positions remains elevated, and the energy complex appears most exposed to further de-risking. Precious metals, supported by a gold/silver ratio of 88.65, have thus far absorbed the macro pressure with greater resilience.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at 2769.10, a gain of 0.08% on the session. The move extends a constructive January in which the metal has advanced 6.25% over twenty sessions, with the twenty-day range running from 2604.90 to 2792.00. The close places gold in the 87.80% percentile of its twenty-day channel, indicating that price is pressing toward the upper boundary of its recent range. The average true range stands at 27.36, reflecting a daily volatility envelope of roughly one percent. The intraday high of 2769.10 matched the settlement, suggesting a firm close into the Fed decision. Gold's advance has been achieved against a 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.15%, a configuration that historically would be expected to weigh on the metal, implying that official-sector or safe-haven demand has been the marginal buyer.
Silver (SI=F). Silver was the strongest performer in the precious complex, closing at 31.238 for a gain of 1.66%. The metal is up 7.32% over twenty sessions and sits in the 84.00% percentile of its twenty-day channel, with the range spanning 28.94 to 31.675. The gold/silver ratio of 88.65 continues to favor silver on a relative-value basis. The average true range of 0.5966 indicates that daily swings of roughly two percent are within normal parameters. Silver's outperformance on the day is consistent with a modest reflation impulse in industrial metals, echoed by copper's advance.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Crude oil was the weakest major contract, settling at 72.62 for a loss of 1.56%. The front month has now declined 3.74% over five sessions and 3.06% on the Brent contract, which closed at 76.58, down 1.17%. The twenty-day range for WTI spans 70.87 to 80.77, and the settlement places crude in just the 17.70% percentile of that channel, confirming that price is trading near the lower end of its recent distribution. The average true range of 2.2050 equates to roughly three percent of spot, underscoring elevated realized volatility. The intraday low of 72.33 was struck before a modest recovery into the close. The weakness came despite the neutral Fed outcome and appears driven by positioning rather than a discrete headline.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas closed at 3.535, up 1.84%, a rebound from the prior session's sharp decline. The contract remains deeply depressed on a multi-session basis, down 10.73% over five days and 10.19% over twenty days. The twenty-day range of 3.313 to 4.369 places the settlement in the 21.00% percentile, indicating that price is near the bottom of its recent band. The average true range of 0.3183 represents roughly nine percent of spot, among the highest in the complex. The intraday range of 3.313 to 3.588 was wide, consistent with the weather-driven volatility that has characterized January trading.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at 4.2575, up 0.88%. The metal has gained 5.24% over twenty sessions and sits in the 64.70% percentile of its twenty-day channel, which spans 3.9745 to 4.4120. The average true range of 0.0539 is modest relative to spot, at roughly 1.3%. Copper's relative resilience against the firm dollar at 108.00 suggests that supply-side or China-demand considerations are providing a partial offset to macro headwinds.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at 1060.50, up 1.48%, and have gained 7.99% over twenty sessions. The settlement sits in the 83.80% percentile of the twenty-day range of 978.75 to 1076.25. The average true range of 20.50 is approximately two percent of spot. The grain complex was broadly firm, with corn up 2.42% to 497.00 and wheat up 3.16% to 562.50, suggesting a sector-wide bid rather than a soybean-specific catalyst.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop on 2025-01-29 is defined by a Federal Reserve on hold and a still-restrictive real rate structure. According to the Federal Reserve's 2025-01-29 statement, the Committee maintained rates unchanged, made no reference to adjustments in balance-sheet policy or asset purchases, assessed economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, described the unemployment rate as low and stabilized, and judged inflation to remain somewhat elevated. The guidance was neutral in tone. The effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33%, and the unemployment rate at 4.00%.
The inflation picture remains the key constraint on policy easing. The unadjusted CPI index stands at 318.961, and the core PCE price index, which the Fed treats as its primary inflation anchor, is at 124.587. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.15%, the real cost of capital remains firmly positive, a configuration that historically acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. That precious metals advanced on the day despite this backdrop suggests that demand is being driven by factors other than the real-rate channel.
The yield curve provides a modest growth signal. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields stands at 0.34 percentage points, a positive slope consistent with a soft-landing or no-recession baseline rather than an imminent contraction. The 10-year nominal yield was quoted at 4.55%, and the dollar index at 108.00. A firm dollar at this level mechanically raises the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated commodities for non-US buyers, a persistent headwind for the complex.
Liquidity conditions appear ample. The Federal Reserve's total balance sheet stands at 6,818,186 million dollars, and the overnight reverse repurchase facility was drawn at 121.842 billion dollars. The high-yield credit spread, as measured by the BofA Merrill Lynch index, stands at 2.68%, a level consistent with benign risk appetite and no imminent liquidity stress. The VIX at 16.56 corroborates this reading, indicating that equity-market volatility remains contained and that cross-asset risk sentiment is constructive.
Employment remains a source of resilience. Total nonfarm payrolls stand at 158,268 thousand, and with unemployment at 4.00%, the labor market continues to underpin consumer demand. For commodities, this supports the demand side of the equation, particularly for industrial metals and energy, even as the strong dollar and positive real rates cap the upside.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC data for the reporting week ended 2025-01-28, positioning across the major commodity contracts was dominated by liquidation in energy and modest reductions in precious and base metals, with natural gas the sole exception.
Crude Oil. The crude oil contract recorded a net long position of 191,531 lots, comprising 240,582 long and 49,051 short contracts against total open interest of 1,782,462. The week-over-week change was a reduction of 55,914 lots, by far the largest single-week decline in the dataset. This represents a material unwind of bullish exposure and is the most significant positioning signal of the week. The scale of the reduction, equivalent to roughly 23% of the prior long base, suggests that momentum and macro-oriented accounts were active sellers. With the net long still at 191,531 lots, the position remains directionally long but substantially less crowded than a week ago.
Gold. Gold net length stood at 210,540 lots, with 227,871 long against 17,331 short, on open interest of 577,505. The weekly change was a decline of 5,329 lots. The short base remains remarkably small at 17,331 lots, indicating that bearish conviction is limited and that the dominant risk is a further reduction in longs rather than a wave of new shorts. The net long remains large in absolute terms, and the ratio of longs to shorts of roughly 13:1 flags a degree of crowding that warrants monitoring.
Silver. Silver net length was 25,950 lots, comprising 46,674 long and 20,724 short, on open interest of 165,135. The weekly change was a reduction of 3,271 lots. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 2.3:1 is far less extreme than gold's, and the smaller absolute position size suggests less crowded positioning.
Copper. Copper net length stood at 16,542 lots, with 67,992 long against 51,450 short, on open interest of 234,867. The weekly change was a decline of 2,772 lots. The long-to-short ratio of roughly 1.3:1 indicates balanced positioning with no extreme crowding in either direction.
Natural Gas. Natural gas was the only major contract to add length, with net positioning rising 4,742 lots to 52,641. The position comprises 188,602 long and 135,961 short against open interest of 1,568,450. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.4:1 is moderate. The addition of length into a market that has fallen 10.73% over five sessions suggests that some accounts are positioning for a weather-driven or mean-reversion rebound.
In aggregate, the positioning data point to a market that is de-risking energy exposure while maintaining substantial, if slightly reduced, bullish exposure to precious metals. The crude oil liquidation is the clearest contrarian signal in the dataset: a heavily reduced net long in a market trading near the bottom of its twenty-day range could, on a historical basis, precede a stabilization if the fundamental backdrop does not deteriorate further.
5. Today's Focus
The primary event of the session was the Federal Reserve's policy decision on 2025-01-29. According to the Federal Reserve, rates were left unchanged, no balance-sheet or purchase adjustments were mentioned, economic activity was described as expanding at a solid pace, the unemployment rate as low and stabilized, and inflation as still somewhat elevated. The guidance was neutral. Market participants will be parsing the statement for any shift in the reaction function, but the absence of explicit forward guidance leaves the data-dependent framework intact.
On the inventory front, the most recent EIA data, for the week dated 2025-01-24, showed crude oil inventories at 415,126 thousand barrels, a weekly build of 3,463 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories stood at 248,855 thousand barrels, up 2,957 thousand barrels on the week, while distillate inventories were 123,951 thousand barrels, a draw of 4,994 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization was 83.50%. The crude and gasoline builds are consistent with the softer tone in crude oil pricing, while the distillate draw provides a partial offset.
No economic calendar entries were available for the session, and no additional geopolitical headlines were captured in the data. The absence of scheduled macro releases places the emphasis on positioning flows and the market's interpretation of the Fed statement. Traders will also monitor the follow-through in the energy complex following the large CFTC liquidation reported for the week ended 2025-01-28.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold is in a constructive uptrend, having gained 6.25% over twenty sessions and 0.05% over five sessions. The settlement at 2769.10 places price in the 87.80% percentile of the twenty-day channel, with the range spanning 2604.90 to 2792.00. The pivot, R1, and S1 levels all coincide at 2769.10, reflecting the limited intraday range captured in the data. The average true range of 27.36 defines the expected daily excursion. The trend structure remains positive, with higher lows established through January. Resistance is defined by the twenty-day high at 2792.00; a sustained break above that level would open the path toward further extension. Support is anchored by the twenty-day low at 2604.90, with intermediate support implied by the recent consolidation zone in the 2737–2745 area. Given the elevated percentile reading, the risk-reward for fresh longs at current levels is less favorable than it was earlier in the month, and a buy-dips approach toward the 2737–2745 zone would offer a more constructive entry on a historical basis.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Crude oil is in a downtrend, having fallen 3.74% over five sessions and trading in the 17.70% percentile of its twenty-day range of 70.87 to 80.77. The settlement at 72.62 is below the pivot of 73.01. Resistance is defined by R1 at 73.69 and the pivot at 73.01; support is defined by S1 at 71.94 and the twenty-day low at 70.87. The average true range of 2.2050 indicates that a move to either boundary is achievable within a single session. The combination of a low percentile reading and the large CFTC liquidation reported for the week ended 2025-01-28 suggests that the market is approaching a zone where selling pressure may become exhausted. However, the trend remains negative, and a rally toward the pivot at 73.01 would likely encounter selling interest. On a historical basis, the risk-reward favors patience rather than aggressive accumulation until price stabilizes above the pivot.
Copper (HG=F). Copper is in a mild uptrend, having gained 5.24% over twenty sessions, though it has slipped 0.33% over five sessions. The settlement at 4.2575 is marginally above the pivot of 4.2573, with R1 at 4.2581 and S1 at 4.2566, reflecting an exceptionally narrow intraday range. The twenty-day range spans 3.9745 to 4.4120, placing price in the 64.70% percentile. The average true range of 0.0539 is modest. The trend is constructive but lacks momentum, and the narrow pivot band suggests a consolidation phase. Resistance is defined by the twenty-day high at 4.4120; support is anchored by the twenty-day low at 3.9745, with the 4.20 area providing intermediate support. A buy-dips posture toward 4.20 would be consistent with the prevailing trend, while a break below that level would warrant reassessment.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset configuration on 2025-01-29 is defined by a firm dollar, elevated nominal yields, and contained equity volatility. The dollar index stands at 108.00, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.55%. The gold/silver ratio is 88.65, the copper/gold ratio is 0.001538, and the oil/gold ratio is 0.0262. The 3-2-1 crack spread stands at 18.74.
The relationship between the dollar and commodities remains the dominant cross-asset channel. With the dollar at 108.00, the headwind for dollar-denominated commodities is persistent. Yet the divergence in performance on the day, with precious and base metals higher and crude oil lower, indicates that commodity-specific factors are currently outweighing the macro channel. This is consistent with the CFTC data, which showed a large crude-specific liquidation alongside only modest reductions in metals.
The gold versus real-yield relationship is currently inverted relative to its historical pattern. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.15%, gold's advance to 2769.10 represents a breakdown of the traditional negative correlation. This suggests that gold is being driven by reserve-diversification or safe-haven demand rather than by the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The gold/silver ratio of 88.65 remains elevated relative to its long-run average, implying that silver retains relative-value appeal.
Within the energy complex, the divergence between crude oil and natural gas is notable. Crude fell 1.56% while natural gas rose 1.84%. The crack spread of 18.74 provides a reference for refining margins. The distillate draw of 4,994 thousand barrels reported by the EIA for the week dated 2025-01-24 stands in contrast to the crude build of 3,463 thousand barrels, a configuration that typically supports product cracks over crude outright.
The base metals basket is firm, with copper up 0.88% and the copper/gold ratio at 0.001538. The positive slope of the 10-year/2-year spread at 0.34 percentage points and the contained VIX at 16.56 are consistent with a constructive growth backdrop that supports industrial metal demand.
8. Risk Factors
Positioning unwind in crude oil. The 55,914-lot reduction in crude oil net length reported by the CFTC for the week ended 2025-01-28 represents a material de-risking. Further liquidation could pressure prices toward the twenty-day low of 70.87.
Real rate and dollar headwinds. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.15% and the dollar index at 108.00, the carry and currency backdrop remains unfavorable for broad commodity exposure. A further strengthening of the dollar would intensify this pressure.
Elevated gold crowding. Gold net length of 210,540 lots against a short base of only 17,331 lots represents a crowded long position. Any shift in macro sentiment could trigger a disproportionate unwind.
Inventory builds in crude and gasoline. The EIA reported a crude build of 3,463 thousand barrels and a gasoline build of 2,957 thousand barrels for the week dated 2025-01-24, which may cap upside in the energy complex.
Natural gas volatility. With an average true range of 0.3183, roughly nine percent of spot, natural gas remains exposed to sharp weather-driven swings in either direction.
9. Week Ahead
No economic calendar entries were available in the dataset for the coming five trading days. Market participants will nonetheless monitor the usual cadence of US macro releases, Federal Reserve communications, and energy inventory data.
The next EIA inventory report will be closely watched following the crude build of 3,463 thousand barrels and the distillate draw of 4,994 thousand barrels reported for the week dated 2025-01-24. Refinery utilization at 83.50% will be a key input for product balances.
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ending 2025-02-04 will provide the first read on whether the crude oil liquidation reported for 2025-01-28 continued or stabilized. Given the magnitude of the prior reduction, the next print carries elevated information value.
Central bank communication remains a focus following the Federal Reserve's neutral 2025-01-29 statement. Any shift in the inflation or labor-market language would be consequential for real rates and, by extension, for precious metals.
Agricultural markets will continue to trade on export demand and South American weather, with soybeans having gained 7.99% over twenty sessions and corn and wheat also firm.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Constructive trend, but the 87.80% channel percentile argues for patience. Buy dips toward 2737–2745 rather than chasing strength above 2769. Resistance at 2792.00.
- Silver: Outperformer on the day at +1.66%, with the gold/silver ratio at 88.65 supporting relative value. Watch the 31.675 twenty-day high.
- Crude Oil: Downtrend intact at the 17.70% channel percentile. The 55,914-lot CFTC liquidation reduces crowding but does not yet signal a reversal. Resistance at 73.01 pivot; support at 71.94 and 70.87.
- Natural Gas: Sharp rebound of 1.84% after a 10.73% five-day decline. The 4,742-lot addition to net length is a modest positive, but volatility remains extreme.
- Copper: Mild uptrend, balanced positioning, narrow pivot band. Buy dips toward 4.20; resistance at 4.4120.
- Soybeans: Firm at +1.48%, with the grain complex broadly bid. The 83.80% channel percentile warrants selective profit-taking.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.