I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
SHFE Silver main continuous contract closed at CNY 7,972.00/kg on February 11, 2025, down 1.2389% on the day, with volume of 801,858 lots and open interest of 334,145 lots, a modest open interest build versus the prior day's 333,012 lots. The daily pivot P was 8,000.67, R1 was 8,076.33, and S1 was 7,896.33; the close sat between P and S1, a weak zone.
Looking at the 5-day sequence, February 5 closed at 8,107.00, up 4.8364% on the day on volume of 432,032 lots, the strongest single session in the recent period; thereafter February 6 closed at 8,042.00 (-0.3717%), February 7 at 8,055.00 (-0.3957%), February 10 at 8,062.00 (+0.2612%), and February 11 at 7,972.00 (-1.2389%), forming a “one up day followed by four down days, with the center of gravity drifting lower” pattern. The February 11 close of 7,972.00 is below the February 10 close of 8,062.00, directionally lower, and broke below the 8,000 round-number level.
Moving averages: on February 11, MA5 was 8,047.60 and MA20 was 7,833.40. The close of 7,972.00 is below MA5 (7,972.00 < 8,047.60) but above MA20 (7,972.00 > 7,833.40), short-term bearish, longer-term bullish. Notably, MA5 rose rapidly from 7,820.80 on February 5 to 8,047.60; after such a steep upward tilt in the moving average, price has pulled back, creating a need for a moving-average retest.
Key levels: the 20-day high H20 is 8,146.00 (consistent across February 10 and February 11 data), and the 20-day low L20 is 7,589.00. The current price is about -2.14% from H20 and about +5.05% from L20. Overhead resistance lies at 8,000.67 (P), 8,047.60 (MA5), 8,076.33 (R1), and 8,146.00 (H20) in turn; support below lies at 7,896.33 (S1), 7,833.40 (MA20), and 7,589.00 (L20) in turn.
International comparison: SI=F closed at USD 32.2310/oz on February 11, down 0.50%, with a 5-day cumulative move of -2.00 and a 20-day cumulative move of +7.11; pivot P was 32.0420, R1 was 32.4490, S1 was 31.8240, and ATR was 0.6288. The chPos (close position indicator) fell from 98.90% on February 5 to 82.30% on February 10 and 76.20% on February 11, declining for consecutive sessions, indicating that price's relative position within the range has migrated from the top downward.
Domestic indicators such as RSI, MACD, and ATR: the <data> section does not provide the corresponding SHFE Silver values; data to be updated. Only the international ATR is available at 0.6288, up from 0.5973 on February 10, a marginal rise in volatility. Overall assessment: short-term momentum has weakened, but the medium-term trend has not yet been broken; if price holds above MA20, treat it as a healthy retest, whereas consecutive closes below S1 would warrant vigilance for a trend reversal.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Macro rates and the US dollar: the <data> section does not provide specific values for the US dollar index, Treasury yields, or the federal funds rate; data to be updated. Generally, as a non-yielding asset, silver's carrying cost is negatively correlated with real rates; if real rates fall, silver prices are supported, and if real rates rise, silver prices are pressured. This cannot be quantified or verified at present, and is offered only as a framework note.
Inflation expectations: the <data> section does not provide TIPS breakeven inflation rates or CPI data; data to be updated. Silver carries both precious-metal and industrial-metal attributes, and rising inflation expectations typically benefit it through a dual driver of hedging demand and industrial restocking expectations.
Inventories and central bank gold purchases: the <data> section does not provide SHFE silver inventories, COMEX silver inventories, or central bank gold purchase data; data to be updated. Silver has no large-scale central bank purchase mechanism, so its inventory changes mainly reflect industrial and investment demand; watch the forthcoming weekly exchange inventory reports.
ETF flows: the <data> section does not provide global silver ETF holdings data; data to be updated. ETF holdings are an important gauge of medium- to long-term investment demand, and sustained inflows provide a floor for prices.
Geopolitics: the <data> section shows N/A for relevant domestic headlines over the past 48 hours, with no usable sentiment data; the impact of geopolitical events on silver prices cannot be quantified, and data is to be updated.
The quantifiable fundamental clues come mainly from the international market: SI=F's 20-day cumulative move of +7.11 shows that international silver prices rose overall over the past month, but the 5-day cumulative move of -2.00 shows a give-back over the past week. The domestic SHFE Silver's high-volume long up day of +4.8364% on February 5 corroborates the international market's 5-day cumulative +5.18 on February 5, indicating a round of synchronized upside in early February. The current pullback looks more like short-term profit-taking than a fundamental reversal, but it requires validation from subsequent macro data.
III. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows
Domestic positioning: SHFE Silver main contract open interest rose from 315,547 lots on February 5 to 325,769 lots on February 6, 328,149 lots on February 7, 333,012 lots on February 10, and 334,145 lots on February 11, an open interest build for four consecutive days. Falling prices alongside rising open interest is theoretically bearish (short building) or signals intensifying long-short divergence, and needs to be confirmed against subsequent price direction.
Volume: February 11 volume of 801,858 lots fell back from 903,108 lots on February 10, but remained above the 526,165 lots on February 7 and 497,965 lots on February 6, showing trading activity stayed elevated, with participation after the February 5 high-volume up day (432,032 lots) not visibly fading.
COT positioning (international comparison): the most recent 4-week data provided in the <data> section is dated 2026-08-25 to 2026-09-15, which does not match the report date of 2025-02-11; this is a data-caliber anomaly and cannot be used directly for the current-period analysis, so data is to be updated. Judging only from within that series, net longs fell from 14,073 (2026-08-25) to 12,598 (2026-09-01), rebounded to 14,386 (2026-09-08), then fell to 13,124 (2026-09-15), with week-over-week deltas of +2,378, -1,475, +1,788, and -1,262, a choppy pattern; in the latest week net longs fell by 1,262 lots, a marginal easing of long crowding.
Options and volatility: the <data> section does not provide SHFE Silver option implied volatility or put/call ratios; data to be updated. The international ATR's rise from 0.5973 to 0.6288 can serve as indirect evidence of rising volatility.
Synthesis: domestic open interest build on falling prices, international net longs easing, and volatility rising together point to declining short-term long crowding and a market entering a consolidation and digestion phase. If open interest keeps rising while price stabilizes, it may turn into longs repositioning; if open interest rises while price keeps falling, the probability of shorts taking control increases.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value Analysis
Gold-silver ratio: the <data> section does not provide gold price data, so the gold-silver ratio and its historical percentile cannot be calculated; data to be updated. The gold-silver ratio is an important measure of silver's valuation relative to gold; a historically high ratio implies silver is relatively undervalued, and vice versa.
Oil-gold ratio: the <data> section does not provide crude oil or gold price data; data to be updated. The oil-gold ratio typically reflects inflation and growth expectations and has indirect implications for silver's industrial attribute.
Copper-gold ratio: the <data> section does not provide copper price data; data to be updated. The copper-gold ratio is a relative-strength gauge of pro-cyclical versus safe-haven assets and is highly correlated with silver's dual industrial-plus-financial character.
Available cross-market clue: the linkage between SHFE Silver and international silver (SI=F). On February 11, SHFE Silver closed at CNY 7,972.00/kg, down 1.2389%, while SI=F closed at USD 32.2310/oz, down 0.50%; both fell in the same direction, but SHFE Silver fell more than the international market, showing heavier short-term selling pressure domestically. On February 5, SHFE Silver rose 4.8364% and SI=F's 5-day cumulative move was +5.18, a synchronized rally. This “rising and falling together, with greater domestic elasticity” pattern means domestic SHFE Silver has an amplification effect on international silver prices, and cross-market arbitrage and onshore-offshore spread trading should account for exchange rate and tax factors.
Because the specific values and percentiles for the gold-silver, oil-gold, and copper-gold ratios are all missing, this section cannot offer quantitative conclusions; it only flags that same-period prices for gold, crude oil, and copper need to be filled in later to complete the relative-value framework.
V. Sentiment & Public Opinion Monitoring
The <data> section shows that relevant domestic headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER) are N/A, with no usable news headlines, so a sentiment score cannot be calculated nor headline bias tallied; data to be updated.
Inferring sentiment indirectly from quantifiable market behavior: the February 5 single-day surge of 4.8364% in SHFE Silver, accompanied by 432,032 lots of volume, indicates euphoria; the subsequent three sessions of narrow consolidation from February 6 to February 10 (8,042.00, 8,055.00, 8,062.00) saw sentiment turn watchful; the February 11 drop of 1.2389% and loss of 8,000 turned sentiment cautious. The international chPos falling from 98.90% to 76.20% likewise reflects cooling bullish sentiment.
Overall sentiment assessment: shifting from euphoria to caution, but panic has not yet appeared. If a subsequent high-volume decline comes with a sharp drop in open interest, the market may enter a panic deleveraging phase; if it stabilizes on shrinking volume, sentiment is likely to repair.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
<data> The section did not provide SHFE Silver seasonal data, year-over-year statistics for the past 10 years, or monthly effect data; historical statistical data is pending update.
Short-term patterns observable only from the recent 5-day sequence: after the sharp rally on Feb 5, closing prices traded within a narrow range of 8,042.00 to 8,062.00 for three consecutive sessions from Feb 6 to Feb 10, with volatility converging, followed by a downside breakout on Feb 11, presenting a short-term rhythm of “high-volume long yang candle — shrinking-volume consolidation — directional resolution to the downside.” In the absence of a longer historical sample, this pattern is insufficient to constitute a statistically significant conclusion.
Recommended follow-up additions: SHFE Silver main contract seasonal performance around the Chinese New Year, February monthly up/down probability, and the lead-lag relationship with international silver prices, to refine the historical statistical framework.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments:
1. The close of 7,972.00 remains above MA20 (7,833.40); medium-term moving average support is intact, and the trend structure is bullish.
2. On a 20-day cumulative basis, SI=F is +7.11 over 20 days; international silver prices have generally risen over the past month, resonating with SHFE Silver's +4.8364% on Feb 5.
3. Domestic open interest has increased for four consecutive sessions (315,547 → 334,145 lots); if this reflects longs positioning on dips, there is underlying support below.
4. International ATR has risen from 0.5973 to 0.6288; rising volatility often accompanies trend continuation, and if an upside breakout occurs, the upside elasticity could be considerable.
Bearish arguments:
1. The Feb 11 close of 7,972.00 broke below MA5 (8,047.60) and the 8,000 round-number level, turning short-term moving averages bearish.
2. From Feb 5 to Feb 11, a “one yang, four yin” pattern formed, with the center of gravity shifting down from 8,107.00 to 7,972.00, indicating fading bullish momentum.
3. International chPos declined from 98.90% to 76.20%, with price position within the range continuing to move lower; the 5-day cumulative change is -2.00.
4. In the latest COT week, net longs fell by 1,262 lots to 13,124 lots; while long crowding has eased, the absolute level remains elevated, leaving room for further position cuts.
Short- vs. medium-term force comparison: Short term (1–5 days), bears have the edge — price has lost MA5 and the 8,000 level, with support to watch at 7,896.33 (S1) and 7,833.40 (MA20). Medium term (20 days), bulls still have the edge — price remains above MA20 and the 20-day cumulative change is positive. If 7,896.33 gives way, short-term weakness may transmit to the medium term; if price stabilizes above 7,833.40 and reclaims 8,047.60, the medium-term uptrend structure remains intact.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range dip-buying, LONG): Entry reference near 7,896.33 (S1), stop-loss below 7,833.40 (MA20), target 8,076.33 (R1), horizon 1–5 days, position size recommended at no more than 15% of total capital, conviction 6. Logic: medium-term moving average is unbroken, S1 acts as short-term support, and the risk-reward ratio is approximately (8,076.33 − 7,896.33) / (7,896.33 − 7,833.40) ≈ 2.86.
Strategy 2 (rally selling, SHORT): Entry reference near 8,047.60 (MA5), stop-loss above 8,146.00 (H20), target 7,896.33 (S1), horizon 1–5 days, position size recommended at no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 5. Logic: short-term moving averages have turned bearish, and a rebound to MA5 has a high probability of meeting resistance; the risk-reward ratio is approximately (8,047.60 − 7,896.33) / (8,146.00 − 8,047.60) ≈ 1.54.
Risk management: single-trade risk controlled at 1%–2% of total capital; if price closes below 7,833.40 (MA20) for two consecutive sessions, the medium-term bullish thesis is invalidated and positions should be stopped out; if price breaks above 8,146.00 (H20) on volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated. All strategies should dynamically adjust stop-loss width in line with realized volatility (ATR 0.6288).
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
<data> The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A, with no available event data; data pending update. Suggested focus: domestic silver inventory weekly report, international silver ETF holdings changes, U.S. dollar index and Treasury yield trends, and any inflation or employment data that may be released. Event table to be completed.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.