I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
The SHFE Gold main continuous contract closed at CNY 685.74/g on 2025-02-11, up 1.7932% versus the prior trading day, marking the second large bullish candle in the last five sessions. Previously, on February 10 it closed at CNY 679.08/g, up 1.5037%; on February 7 it closed at CNY 669.90/g, down 0.2828%; on February 6 it closed at CNY 668.46/g, down 0.0718%; and on February 5 it closed at CNY 670.64/g, up 3.3535%. Over the five sessions, the price rose cumulatively from CNY 670.64/g to CNY 685.74/g, a gain of about 2.25%, with a step-like structure of “sharp rise — sideways — sharp rise again.”
The moving-average system remains in a bullish alignment: on February 11, MA5 stood at CNY 674.76/g and MA20 at CNY 647.78/g, with the close of CNY 685.74/g above both, and MA5 sitting CNY 26.98/g above MA20, leaving short- to medium-term MA deviation in an overheated zone. The 20-day high H20 is CNY 691.76/g and the 20-day low L20 is CNY 620.40/g; the current price is only CNY 6.02/g (about 0.88%) below the 20-day high, but CNY 65.34/g (about 10.53%) above the 20-day low, indicating a clear upward shift in the price center of gravity over the past month.
On pivots and key levels, the February 11 pivot P is CNY 685.78/g, nearly identical to the close of CNY 685.74/g — a typical “pivot-hugging” pattern, with a directional choice imminent. First resistance R1 is CNY 691.72/g, forming a confluence resistance band of 691.7–691.8 with the 20-day high of CNY 691.76/g; first support S1 is CNY 679.80/g, with secondary support below at MA5's CNY 674.76/g and the February 7 close of CNY 669.90/g.
The volume–open-interest structure warrants caution: on February 11, turnover was 411,548 lots, up from 371,683 lots on February 10, but open interest fell from 201,628 lots to 193,611 lots, a decline of 8,017 lots — a “price up, volume up, open interest down” combination that typically points to short-term long profit-taking alongside passive short covering, rather than a large influx of new trend-following capital. On February 5, turnover was only 118,422 lots with open interest of 205,872 lots; by comparison, churn accelerated markedly in the latter half of this rally.
On indicators, the domestic RSI, MACD, and ATR values were not provided in this dataset and await update. For reference, the international GC=F ATR stands at USD 38.1429/oz, clearly higher than USD 33.7000/oz on February 7 and USD 33.1714/oz on February 6, with volatility in expansion; if this volatility transmits to the domestic market, the intraday swing center for SHFE Gold may shift higher in tandem. Overall judgment: the trend bias is bullish, but price has run up beneath the confluence of the 20-day high and R1, and with the volume–open-interest divergence, the risk-reward of chasing longs is unattractive.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the dollar, this dataset did not provide specific readings for the dollar index or U.S. Treasury yields; data pending update. What can be confirmed is that international gold GC=F closed at USD 2,912.50/oz on 2025-02-11, up 2.07% over five days and 8.94% over 20 days; a near-9% gain on the 20-day horizon typically corresponds to at least one of falling real rates or rising safe-haven premium, but with no same-day macro data to support it, attribution should not be forced.
On inflation, the dataset contains no CPI or PCE readings; data pending update. Note that gold's sensitivity to inflation data depends on whether it alters policy-path expectations, not on the absolute level of inflation itself.
On inventories and central-bank buying, this dataset provided no SHFE inventories, COMEX inventories, or monthly central-bank gold purchases; data pending update. Domestic open interest on February 11 was 193,611 lots, down 8,017 lots from the prior day; if inventories also decline subsequently, it would more likely reflect delivery or roll behavior than weakening demand, pending inventory data verification.
On ETFs, the dataset provided no changes in gold ETF holdings such as SPDR; data pending update.
On geopolitics, domestic headlines over the past 48 hours returned N/A, with no usable sentiment input; data pending update. In the absence of event-driven catalysts, this rally is more likely dominated by capital flows and relative-value factors than by a sudden geopolitical shock.
Overall, the fundamental inputs in this dataset are mainly international prices and volatility, with macro, inventories, ETFs, and geopolitics all missing; thus the fundamental assessment can only stop at “international strength over 20 days with rising volatility.” If subsequent dollar and real-rate data weaken in tandem, the upside logic for gold would be reinforced; if macro data move the other way, the current elevated level faces give-back pressure.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
Domestic open interest: on February 11, open interest was 193,611 lots, down 8,017 lots from 201,628 lots on February 10; on February 7 it was 199,458 lots, on February 6 205,577 lots, and on February 5 205,872 lots. The open-interest peak appeared above 205,000 lots on February 5–6, followed by consecutive declines even as prices rose — a classic “rally on open-interest cuts.” This structure is bullish in the short term (driven by short covering) but fragile in the medium term (lacking fresh long support — fresh long follow-through).
International COT (comparative basis): in the latest week of 2026-09-15, total open interest OI = 409,899 lots, longs L = 142,394 lots, shorts S = 9,278 lots, net long net = 133,116 lots, weekly change Δ = -1,856 lots; the prior week of 2026-09-08 saw net longs of 134,972 lots, Δ = -1,799 lots; 2026-09-01 net longs 136,771 lots, Δ = -7,976 lots; 2026-08-25 net longs 144,747 lots, Δ = +3,099 lots. Over four weeks, net longs fell from 144,747 lots to 133,116 lots, a cumulative decline of 11,631 lots, marking three consecutive weeks of net-long reduction. Note specifically that the dates on this COT series are labeled 2026, a basis mismatch with the report date of 2025-02-11; when cited, treat it only as a directional trend reference, and do not map the specific values directly to current prices.
Crowding: measured as net longs / total open interest, 2026-09-15 stands at 133,116/409,899 ≈ 32.5%, versus 144,747/427,957 ≈ 33.8% on 2026-08-25; crowding has eased slightly but remains elevated, and if it continues to fall, the international upside momentum may weaken at the margin.
Options and volatility: the dataset provided no domestic option open interest, PCR, or implied volatility; data pending update. A usable proxy is GC=F's ATR, which rose from 33.1714 on February 6 to 38.1429 on February 11, an increase of about 15.0%; volatility expansion is typically accompanied by higher option implied volatility and rising hedging costs.
Fund-flow summary: domestic rally on open-interest cuts, and international net longs down for three straight weeks — both readings point to “insufficient marginal incremental capital,” diverging from the price highs, and this is the risk point most in need of tracking.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Gold-silver ratio: the dataset provided no silver price; the gold-silver ratio and its historical percentile data are pending update.
Oil-gold ratio: the dataset provided no crude oil price; the oil-gold ratio and its historical percentile data are pending update.
Copper-gold ratio: the dataset provided no copper price; the copper-gold ratio and its historical percentile data are pending update.
The only usable cross-market comparison is the onshore-offshore check: GC=F closed at USD 2,912.50/oz on 2025-02-11, down 0.06% on the day, while SHFE Gold main contract closed the same day at CNY 685.74/g, up 1.7932%. The divergence in direction shows that the domestic strength was not entirely driven by the international market, and may include factors such as FX, onshore-offshore spread repair, or domestic capital behavior; however, the dataset provided no CNY exchange rate or onshore-offshore spread readings, so specific attribution is pending update.
On the 5-day and 20-day horizons, GC=F is up 2.07% over five days and 8.94% over 20 days, while SHFE Gold main rose from CNY 670.64/g to CNY 685.74/g over five days (about 2.25%); the two are broadly in sync on the 5-day horizon. On the 20-day horizon, the domestic close from 20 days prior is unavailable, so it cannot be calculated directly; data pending update.
Conclusion: none of the three cross-asset relative-value items currently has data support, so no percentile judgment can be given; this section can only confirm the fact of same-day onshore-offshore directional divergence. If gold-silver, oil-gold, and copper-gold ratio data are later filled in, focus should be on whether all three point in unison to “rising safe-haven premium” or a “reflation trade,” to determine the macro character of the gold rally.
V. Sentiment & Public Opinion Monitoring
Domestic headlines for the past 48h (market=CN, asset=GOLD) returned N/A; no headline samples are available, the sentiment score cannot be computed, and the data is pending update.
There are two alternative sentiment proxies: first, domestic volume on Feb 11 was 411,548 lots, the highest in the past 5 days, expanding more than 2.4x versus 118,422 lots on Feb 5, indicating a marked rise in trading activity that typically corresponds to warming sentiment; second, GC=F's chPos (close-location indicator) stood at 88.00% on Feb 11, 99.30% on Feb 10, 89.80% on Feb 7, 88.50% on Feb 6, and 96.10% on Feb 5, persistently above the 85% threshold, suggesting international closes have remained near the upper end of the daily range with relatively strong buying interest.
Combining the two proxies, sentiment is firm but lacks confirmation from the news flow; with headline data missing, the sentiment score should not be used as an independent trading basis.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
This dataset provides no seasonal return series for SHFE Gold or international gold, nor any statistics on performance during the same period (mid-February) over the past 10 years; historical statistical data is pending update.
The limited statistical facts available are: GC=F is up 8.94% over the past 20 days and 2.07% over the past 5 days, meaning roughly 23% of the 20-day gain is concentrated in the last 5 trading days, indicating elevated short-term momentum concentration; SHFE Gold main contract closed higher on 4 of the past 5 days and lower on 1 day, with a largest single-day gain of 3.3535% (Feb 5) and a largest single-day decline of 0.2828% (Feb 7), as up-day magnitudes significantly exceed down-day magnitudes, exhibiting a “fast-rise, slow-fall” pattern.
In the absence of seasonal data, this section makes no inference about historical win rates for February. If the February SHFE Gold return distribution over the past 10 years is later filled in, two points should be tested: first, whether mid-February sits at the transition window between post-Spring Festival restocking and the consumption off-season; second, whether historical volatility in that window exceeds the full-year average.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments:
1. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment; the Feb 11 close of CNY 685.74/g sits above the MA5 of CNY 674.76/g and the MA20 of CNY 647.78/g, leaving the trend structure intact;
2. International GC=F is up 8.94% over 20 days and 2.07% over 5 days, with medium-term momentum still intact;
3. GC=F's chPos has held above 88% for 5 consecutive days (reaching 99.30% on Feb 10), reflecting strong closes;
4. Domestic volume hit a 5-day high of 411,548 lots on Feb 11, indicating rising capital attention;
5. Volatility expansion (GC=F ATR rising from 33.1714 to 38.1429) often accompanies accelerated upside in a trending market.
Bearish arguments:
1. Domestic open interest fell from 205,577 lots on Feb 6 to 193,611 lots on Feb 11, making the open-interest-cut rally structurally fragile;
2. Price is approaching the confluence resistance of the 20-day high at CNY 691.76/g and R1 at CNY 691.72/g, failing to break through on Feb 11;
3. International COT net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks, falling from 144,747 lots to 133,116 lots, a cumulative cut of 11,631 lots;
4. GC=F closed down 0.06% on Feb 11, diverging from SHFE Gold's +1.7932%, with the overseas market not confirming domestic strength;
5. The close of CNY 685.74/g nearly coincides with the pivot P at CNY 685.78/g, leaving direction undecided, while the deviation from the MA2 of CNY 647.78/g reaches 5.86%, creating mean-reversion pressure.
Short- versus medium-term balance: short term (1–5 days) favors the bulls slightly, given trend and volume alignment; medium term (2–4 weeks) is near equilibrium, with the open-interest-cut rally and the COT net-long decline offsetting each other. If price breaks above CNY 691.76/g effectively, the bullish case strengthens; if CNY 679.80/g gives way, the bearish case takes over.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (buy on pullback): entry near CNY 679.80/g (S1), stop-loss below CNY 674.76/g (MA5), target CNY 691.72/g (R1), horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than one-third of the planned allocation, conviction 7. If price gaps directly above CNY 691.76/g, the strategy is invalid and chasing is not advised.
Strategy 2 (breakout follow-through): if the daily close holds effectively above CNY 691.76/g (20-day high), enter in the CNY 692–694/g zone, stop-loss below CNY 685.78/g (pivot P), target the CNY 700/g round number, horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than one-quarter of the planned allocation, conviction 6. This strategy requires a synchronized rebound in open interest as confirmation; if open interest continues to fall on the breakout day, reduce size or stand aside.
Risk control: single-trade risk exposure should be kept within 1% of account equity; domestic ATR data is missing, so GC=F's ATR of 38.1429 USD/oz may be used as a volatility reference ceiling, with a fixed percentage stop-loss substituted while data is pending update. If price breaks below CNY 674.76/g with a simultaneous rise in open interest, treat it as a trend-weakening signal and reduce or exit positions.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days returned N/A; the specific event table is pending update. Routine items to track independently include: domestic gold spot premium/discount and weekly SHFE inventory updates, the weekly international CFTC commitments report (COT basis), the US dollar index and real rate trends, and any geopolitical or policy headlines that may be released. Until calendar data is filled in, real-time changes in price and open interest should serve as the primary decision basis.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.