I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of February 11, 2025, SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 77,150/t, down 0.3230% from the previous trading day. The intraday pivot P is CNY 77,240/t, the first resistance R1 is CNY 77,560/t, and the first support S1 is CNY 76,830/t. Over the past five trading sessions, price action has shown a rise-then-fade pattern: February 5 closed at CNY 75,290/t (down 0.3441%), February 6 closed at CNY 76,480/t (up 1.5536%), February 7 closed at CNY 77,250/t (up 1.7652%), February 10 closed at CNY 77,370/t (up 0.8341%), and February 11 closed at CNY 77,150/t (down 0.3230%).
On moving averages, as of February 11 the MA5 stands at CNY 76,708/t and the MA20 at CNY 75,740/t; the closing price of CNY 77,150/t is above both the MA5 and the MA20, leaving the short-term bullish MA alignment intact. The 20-day high H20 is CNY 77,950/t and the 20-day low L20 is CNY 74,110/t; the current price sits in the upper-middle of the 20-day range, about 1.03% below the high and about 4.10% above the low.
For the international comparison, HG=F closed on February 11 at USD 4.5945/lb, down 2.26%, with pivot P at 4.5787, R1 at 4.6104, S1 at 4.5629, and ATR at 0.0764. HG=F is up 5.80% over the past five days and 6.96% over the past 20 days, but gave back sharply on February 11, a stark contrast to SHFE Copper's modest 0.32% decline.
On technical indicators, RSI, MACD, and ATR (domestic) data are pending update, so no specific readings can be provided. Judging purely from price structure, SHFE Copper is oscillating within the 76,830–77,950 range in the short term; a decisive break above 77,950 could open further upside, while a break below 76,830 could see a retest of the MA20 (75,740) for support. On volume, February 11 traded 68,212 lots, a clear contraction from 105,092 lots on February 10, indicating insufficient momentum to chase highs.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, this report's data segment provides no US dollar index, US Treasury yield, or inflation expectation data; related analysis is pending update. Judging from HG=F's 2.26% single-day drop, overseas macro sentiment may be cautious, but without specific rate or FX data as corroboration, it is not advisable to over-infer.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, the data segment provides no LME, SHFE, or COMEX copper inventory data, nor any central bank gold purchase indicators; inventory and official reserve analysis is pending update.
On ETFs and funding, the data segment provides no copper ETF holdings changes; related analysis is pending update.
On geopolitical factors, the last 48h domestic headlines (market=CN, asset=COPPER) returned N/A; no news sentiment is available, so geopolitical and policy event driver analysis is pending update.
Overall, this report's data segment is dominated by price and open interest data, with a lack of quantitative inputs for fundamental drivers. Inferring from price behavior, SHFE Copper's gains slowed after two consecutive up days post-holiday (February 6 and February 7), with a slight pullback on February 11, likely reflecting the tug-of-war between post-holiday restocking expectations and overseas weakness. Internationally, HG=F surged 2.60% on February 10 before slumping 2.26% on February 11, nearly erasing the prior day's gain, showing high sensitivity of offshore copper prices to macro news. Domestically, SHFE Copper has shown some resilience, supported by FX, tax differentials, and post-holiday demand expectations; however, if the onshore-offshore ratio continues to deviate, the import window and arbitrage forces will gradually correct the spread.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous contract open interest (OI) stood at 180,965 lots on February 11, down 2,416 lots from 183,381 lots on February 10, but still 5,947 lots above the 175,018 lots on February 7. Open interest peaked on February 10 and has since fallen for two consecutive sessions; combined with the slight price decline on February 11, this suggests some long capital is taking profits and the market's willingness to chase highs is waning.
On volume, February 11 traded 68,212 lots, a sharp 36.9% contraction from 105,092 lots on February 10; the volume-price alignment indicates fading short-term momentum. February 7 traded 81,556 lots, February 6 traded 90,598 lots, and February 5 traded 38,931 lots, with turnover expanding gradually after the holiday before contracting on February 11.
On COT positioning (international comparison), the most recent four weeks of data provided in the data segment are dated August 25, 2026 to September 15, 2026, a clear time mismatch with the current report date of February 11, 2025, and thus cannot be used for current analysis; COT classification, crowding, and option volatility analysis are pending update.
Overall, domestic funding shows a pattern of “falling open interest and shrinking volume,” with short-term speculative sentiment cooling. If open interest continues to decline while price holds at elevated levels, watch for pullback risk after long crowding eases; if open interest rebuilds and price breaks above 77,950, trend-following capital may be attracted.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
This report's data segment provides no cross-asset prices such as gold, silver, or crude oil; the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and their historical percentiles cannot be calculated, so cross-asset relative value analysis is pending update.
From available data, the SHFE Copper vs. HG=F ratio can serve as an onshore-offshore linkage reference. On February 11, SHFE Copper closed at CNY 77,150/t and HG=F at USD 4.5945/lb; the onshore-offshore spread requires conversion using the RMB central parity rate and unit conversion, but no FX rate is provided in the data segment, so the precise ratio is pending update. However, in terms of percentage moves, SHFE Copper fell 0.32% while HG=F fell 2.26%, a significant onshore-offshore divergence; if it persists, it may converge via import profit/loss and arbitrage mechanisms.
V. Sentiment
The last 48h domestic headlines (market=CN, asset=COPPER) returned N/A; no news headlines are available, so the sentiment score and headline bias cannot be quantified, and sentiment monitoring is pending update.
Indirectly from price behavior, SHFE Copper's slight decline on shrinking volume on February 11 suggests a neutral-to-cautious market mood; HG=F's 2.26% plunge indicates bearish offshore sentiment. Divergent onshore-offshore sentiment may amplify short-term volatility; absent fresh domestic positives, SHFE Copper may follow the offshore market lower, while any domestic growth-stabilization or restocking signals could sustain its resilience.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
This report's data segment provides no SHFE Copper seasonal history or same-period statistics over the past 10 years; historical pattern analysis is pending update.
From the limited price series, across the five trading sessions from February 5 to February 11, 2025, SHFE Copper recorded three up days and two down days, with a cumulative gain of about 2.47% (from 75,290 to 77,150), a relatively strong first week after the holiday. However, the sample size is extremely small and insufficient to infer seasonal patterns. If data on SHFE Copper's February win/loss distribution over the past 10 years becomes available, the statistical significance of a “post-Chinese New Year restocking rally” could be further tested.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors:
1. SHFE Copper closed at CNY 77,150/t, above the MA5 (76,708) and the MA20 (75,740), with a short-term bullish MA alignment; technically firm.
2. From the 20-day low of CNY 74,110/t, the current price is up about 4.10%, with the rising-bottom structure intact.
3. Gains exceeded 1.5% on both February 6 and February 7, indicating active post-holiday buying.
4. Domestic open interest is still 5,947 lots above February 7, so medium-term capital has not fully exited.
Bearish factors:
1. The February 11 close of CNY 77,150/t is below the pivot P (77,240), indicating intraday weakness.
2. HG=F plunged 2.26% the same day; onshore-offshore divergence may drag SHFE Copper via ratio repair.
3. Open interest has fallen for two consecutive sessions, and February 11 volume contracted 36.9% from February 10, signaling fading momentum.
4. The 20-day high of CNY 77,950/t is short-term resistance; repeated failed tests could trigger a pullback.
Short- vs. medium-term balance: in the short term (1–5 days), bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with domestic resilience and offshore weakness in a tug-of-war, so a range-bound outcome is more likely; in the medium term (1–4 weeks), the bias turns bullish if domestic restocking expectations materialize and open interest rebuilds, but bearish if offshore weakness persists and transmits domestically.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range low-side long): if SHFE Copper retraces to the CNY 76,830/t (S1) area and stabilizes, a light long can be attempted, with entry around CNY 76,850/t, stop-loss at CNY 76,500/t (about 0.43% below S1), target CNY 77,560/t (R1), horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 6.
Strategy 2 (breakout long): if SHFE Copper decisively breaks CNY 77,950/t (H20) with rising open interest, go long in the direction of the trend, with entry around CNY 78,000/t, stop-loss at CNY 77,400/t (about 0.77% below the breakout level), target CNY 78,800/t, horizon 3–10 trading days, position size no more than 8% of total capital, conviction 5.
Risk management: cap single-trade loss at 1.5% of total capital; if price breaks below the MA20 (75,740), the long thesis is invalidated and positions should be exited; watch for onshore-offshore divergence convergence risk—if HG=F continues to fall sharply, domestic longs should be trimmed.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is to be updated. Suggested focus: China January Total Social Financing (TSF) and credit data, LME Copper inventory changes, Fed officials' speeches, and the US Dollar Index trend. If data is released, it will be promptly supplemented in subsequent reports.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.