I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the 2025-02-14 close, SHFE Gold main continuous contract settled at CNY 688.40/g, up 0.9858% on the day, with volume of 254,378 lots and open interest of 190,905 lots. Over the past five trading sessions, the price action has followed a “sharp rally — consolidation — renewed advance” rhythm: 2 Feb 10 closed at CNY 679.08/g (+1.5037%), 2 Feb 11 closed at CNY 685.74/g (+1.7932%), 2 Feb 12 closed at CNY 681.22/g (-0.4908%), 2 Feb 13 closed at CNY 684.56/g (+0.4608%), and 2 Feb 14 closed at CNY 688.40/g (+0.9858%).
The moving-average system is in a bullish alignment. On 2 Feb 14, MA5 stood at CNY 683.80/g and MA20 at CNY 656.08/g; the closing price of CNY 688.40/g is above both, and MA5 is significantly above MA20, indicating short-term momentum outpacing the medium term. The 20-day high H20 is CNY 691.76/g and the 20-day low L20 is CNY 631.16/g; the current price sits near the upper edge of the 20-day range, only about CNY 3.36/g (roughly 0.49%) below the high.
On pivots and key levels, the 2 Feb 14 pivot P is CNY 686.97/g, first resistance R1 is CNY 690.09/g, and first support S1 is CNY 685.29/g. The closing price of CNY 688.40/g lies above P but below R1, a moderately strong consolidation structure. A decisive break above R1 (690.09) with a sustained hold would open a challenge to H20 (691.76); a break below S1 (685.29) could trigger a retest of MA5 (683.80) and even the 2 Feb 12 low zone.
For the international comparison, GC=F closed at USD 2,883.6001/oz on 2025-02-14, down 1.45%, with a 5-day gain of 0.57% and a 20-day gain of 5.00%; pivot P is 2900.9333, R1 is 2927.0666, S1 is 2857.4667, and ATR is 41.5714. The international market weakened on the day while the domestic market closed higher — a clear onshore-offshore divergence — warranting attention to the FX rate and the path of onshore-offshore spread normalization. RSI, MACD and other indicator data are pending update; for now, the moving-average structure and pivot levels serve as the primary technical basis.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, the core anchor for gold pricing remains the real rate and the US dollar index path. The current data segment does not provide specific readings for the dollar index or US Treasury yields; those levels are pending update. Judging from GC=F's recent five-day performance — up 1.64% on 2 Feb 10, down 0.06% on 2 Feb 11, down 0.12% on 2 Feb 12, up 0.58% on 2 Feb 13, and down 1.45% on 2 Feb 14 — the cumulative 5-day gain is 0.57% and the 20-day gain is 5.00%, suggesting the medium-term uptrend remains intact, though short-term momentum has faded.
On inflation, the data segment does not provide the latest CPI or PCE readings; inflation expectation components are pending update. If upcoming inflation data falls more than expected, expectations of lower nominal rates could support gold prices; if inflation proves stickier than expected, rising real rates could weigh on gold.
On inventories and central-bank buying, the data segment does not provide SHFE inventories, COMEX inventories, or monthly global central-bank gold purchases; those data are pending update. Central-bank buying has been an important structural support for gold prices in recent years, and its persistence must be confirmed against official monthly data; this report makes no directional assumption.
On ETF flows, the data segment does not provide holdings changes for major gold ETFs such as SPDR; net ETF inflow/outflow data are pending update. ETF holdings typically lag price; if prices stay elevated while ETFs continue to see outflows, watch for a divergence between allocation-driven and speculative capital.
On geopolitics, the data segment does not provide a list of geopolitical events from the past 48 hours; related sentiment data are pending update. Geopolitical risk usually affects gold prices as a spike in safe-haven premium, which may be unwound if tensions ease.
In sum, the currently verifiable fundamental information comes mainly from price itself: the international market's 20-day gain of 5.00% shows medium-term strength, but the single-day drop of 1.45% on 2 Feb 14, with chPos falling from 99.30% on 2 Feb 10 to 72.00%, signals weakening short-term bullish momentum. The domestic market closed higher on FX and onshore-offshore spread factors; fundamental drivers await confirmation from more macro data.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Gold main contract open interest on 2 Feb 14 was 190,905 lots, up 4,539 lots from 186,366 lots on 2 Feb 13 and up 6,859 lots from 184,046 lots on 2 Feb 12; however, it remains below the 193,611 lots of 2 Feb 11 and the 201,628 lots of 2 Feb 10. Open interest peaked at 201,628 lots on 2 Feb 10, then fell back before edging up again on 2 Feb 14, indicating that some capital chose to cut positions as prices made new highs, after which fresh capital entered — a fairly active exchange of chips.
On volume, 2 Feb 14 turnover was 254,78 lots — correction: 254,378 lots — markedly lower than 359,774 lots on 2 Feb 13 and 354,672 lots on 2 Feb 12, and sharply down from 411,548 lots on 2 Feb 11. The combination of rising prices on shrinking volume suggests the durability of the advance needs observation; a breakout above R1 (690.09) on expanding volume would be a stronger signal, while persistent volume contraction warrants caution over a failed push higher.
On COT positioning (international comparison), the latest report (data segment dated 2026-09-15) shows total open interest OI of 409,899 lots, longs L of 142,394 lots, shorts S of 9,278 lots, and net longs net of 133,116 lots, a change Δ of -1,856 lots versus the prior reading. Prior periods were: 2026-09-08 net long 134,972 lots (Δ -1,799), 2026-09-01 net long 136,771 lots (Δ -7,976), and 2026-08-25 net long 144,747 lots (Δ +3,099). Net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks, down a cumulative ~21,631 lots, indicating speculative longs are gradually cutting and crowding is easing at the margin, though the absolute net long level of 133,116 lots remains elevated.
On options and volatility, the data segment does not provide SHFE Gold option implied volatility, skew, or open-interest distribution; those data are pending update. International ATR rose from 35.2786 on 2 Feb 10 to 41.5714 on 2 Feb 14, a volatility uptick; if domestic volatility rises in tandem, strategy stop-loss settings should be widened accordingly.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the gold-silver ratio, the data segment does not provide silver prices; the ratio and its historical percentile are pending update. The gold-silver ratio is typically used to gauge gold's valuation relative to silver: a high reading implies silver is relatively undervalued, a low reading implies gold is relatively undervalued. No specific reading or percentile judgment can be given at present.
On the oil-gold ratio, the data segment does not provide crude oil prices; the ratio and its percentile are pending update. The oil-gold ratio reflects the relative strength of inflation trades versus safe-haven trades: a declining ratio usually corresponds to safe-haven dominance, a rising ratio to inflation-trade dominance. No specific reading can be given at present.
On the copper-gold ratio, the data segment does not provide copper prices; the ratio and its percentile are pending update. The copper-gold ratio is often viewed as a relative gauge of growth expectations versus safe-haven demand: a declining ratio implies a market tilt toward safety, a rising ratio toward growth. No specific reading can be given at present.
The available cross-market comparison is the onshore-offshore gold price: GC=F closed at USD 2,883.6001/oz on 2025-02-14, down 1.45%, while the domestic SHFE Gold main contract closed at CNY 688.40/g, up 0.9858%. The two moved in opposite directions; converted at the day's FX rate, the onshore-offshore spread may have widened, so watch the normalization mechanism (e.g., the import window and FX volatility) for its pull on domestic prices. If the offshore market continues to weaken while the onshore market holds firm, the onshore premium may attract arbitrage capital; conversely, the onshore market faces catch-down pressure.
V. Sentiment
Domestic headlines from the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=GOLD) are N/A, and sentiment scores are pending update, so no quantitative judgment on domestic sentiment can be made. Internationally, GC=F fell 1.45% on 2 Feb 14, and chPos fell from 99.30% on 2 Feb 10 to 72.00%, with readings of 91.20% on 2 Feb 13, 85.70% on 2 Feb 12, and 88.00% on 2 Feb 11, showing the price's percentile within the 20-day range has fallen for consecutive sessions and short-term sentiment has shifted from extremely optimistic to neutral-to-cautious.
In sum, domestic sentiment data are missing, so the sentiment assessment temporarily uses international price percentile and volatility changes as proxies: the chPos decline combined with the ATR uptick signals cooling short-term sentiment and rising volatility. If domestic headlines resume, focus on the consistency of policy statements, FX commentary, and institutional views.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
On seasonality, the data segment does not provide historical monthly return series for SHFE Gold or international gold prices; February seasonality statistics are pending update. Performance data for the same period over the past 10 years is pending update.
The referenceable statistical information is the 5-day and 20-day change for the international contract GC=F: as of 2025-02-14, the 5-day change was +0.57% and the 20-day change was +5.00%, indicating that medium-term momentum remains positive, while short-term momentum is clearly weaker than medium-term. Combined with COT net longs declining for three consecutive weeks (cumulative decline of approximately -21,631 lots), history shows that when net longs are continuously cut while prices hold at elevated levels, two paths typically emerge: one is healthy rotation after longs take profit, with prices consolidating before resuming the uptrend; the other is a precursor to trend reversal, with prices subsequently catching up to the downside. Current data are insufficient to determine which scenario applies; confirmation requires subsequent positioning and the direction of the price breakout.
In addition, SHFE Gold main contract open interest fell from 201,628 lots on February 10 to 190,905 lots on February 14, a decline of approximately 5.32%, while over the same period the price rose from CNY 679.08/g to CNY 688.40/g, a gain of approximately 1.37%. Historically, the combination of rising prices and falling open interest typically signals that upward momentum is marginally weakening, though it is not necessarily a reversal signal.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish logic: First, SHFE Gold main contract closed at CNY 688.40/g, above both MA5 (683.80) and MA20 (656.08), leaving the bullish moving-average alignment intact. Second, on the 20-day change, international GC=F is up 5.00%, so the medium-term uptrend remains in place. Third, domestic open interest rose by 4,539 lots on February 14 versus the prior day, indicating renewed capital inflows. Fourth, the close is above the pivot P (686.97), leaving the near-term structure firm.
Bearish logic: First, international GC=F fell 1.45% on February 14, and weakness in the offshore market may drag on the domestic market. Second, COT net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 21,631 lots, as speculative longs continue to cut positions. Third, international chPos fell from 99.30% to 72.00%, with the price's percentile position within the range moving lower. Fourth, SHFE Gold volume on February 14 was 254,378 lots, a sharp contraction from 411,548 lots on February 11; rising prices on shrinking volume suggests insufficient upside momentum. Fifth, the 20-day high of CNY 691.76/g forms near-term resistance, capping upside until breached.
Short- versus medium-term balance of power: In the short term (1–5 days), long and short forces are relatively balanced, and the divergence between a firm domestic market and a weak international market raises directional uncertainty. In the medium term (1–3 months), the trend remains bullish, but this is conditional on stabilization in the international market and a recovery in open interest. If SHFE Gold effectively breaks above R1 (690.09) and holds, longs will be in control; if it breaks below S1 (685.29) and loses MA5 (683.80), shorts will gain the upper hand.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (buy on pullback): Entry reference CNY 685.29/g (near S1), stop-loss reference CNY 681.00/g (below the February 12 close of CNY 681.22/g), target reference CNY 690.09/g (R1), horizon 1–5 days, position size recommended at no more than 20% of total capital, conviction 6. Exit if price breaks the stop-loss; take partial take-profit if the target is reached.
Strategy 2 (chase the breakout): Entry reference CNY 690.09/g (above R1), stop-loss reference CNY 685.29/g (S1), target reference CNY 691.76/g (H20), horizon 1–5 days, position size recommended at no more than 15% of total capital, conviction 5. This strategy depends on volume confirmation; if volume does not expand in tandem with the breakout, signal reliability declines.
Risk management: International ATR is 41.5714, with volatility rising, so stop-losses should not be set too tight. The alignment of changes in domestic open interest with volume is the key validation indicator. If international GC=F continues to weaken and breaks below S1 (2857.4667), domestic long positions should be reduced. All strategies must enforce stop-losses strictly, without adjusting stop-loss levels on the basis of single-day volatility.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is N/A; the specific event table is pending update. Suggested focus: domestic gold spot premium/discount and changes in the onshore-offshore spread, the breakout direction of international GC=F between S1 (2857.4667) and R1 (2927.0666), the next COT positioning update (watch whether net longs stop falling), and the release schedule for U.S. dollar and Treasury yield data. If the calendar resumes updating, inflation- and interest-rate-related events should be flagged as priorities.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.