I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-02-14, SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 78,090.00/t, up 0.8915% versus the previous trading day, with turnover of 84,534 lots and open interest of 183,353 lots. The daily pivot P stands at 77,846.67, first resistance R1 at 78,573.33, and first support S1 at 77,363.33. On short-term moving averages, MA5 is at 77,434.00 and MA20 at 76,179.00; the close holds above both MA5 and MA20, and with MA5 above MA20 the short-cycle MA structure is in a bullish alignment. The 20-day high H20 is 78,330.00 and the 20-day low L20 is 74,840.00; the current price sits only about CNY 240 below the 20-day high and about CNY 3,250 above the 20-day low, i.e. near the upper edge of the 20-day range.
Over the last five trading days: 10 Feb closed at CNY 77,370.00/t, up 0.8341%; 11 Feb closed at CNY 77,150.00/t, down 0.3230%; 12 Feb closed at CNY 77,000.00/t, down 0.3623%; 13 Feb closed at CNY 77,560.00/t, up 1.0027%; 14 Feb closed at CNY 78,090.00/t, up 0.8915%. After hitting a phased low on 12 Feb, price rebounded for two consecutive sessions, a cumulative gain of about 1.42%, with the 14 Feb close marking a fresh 5-day high. On turnover, volume expanded to 105,092 lots on 10 Feb then gradually faded, recovering to 84,534 lots on 14 Feb — volume-price coordination is acceptable. Open interest rose from 180,965 lots on 11 Feb to 183,353 lots on 14 Feb, an open interest build accompanying the rally, with slightly improved participation.
On technical indicators, the dataset provides no RSI, MACD or ATR values, so none are fabricated here. Inferring only from price versus moving averages, short-term momentum is firm, but overbought risk warrants caution. For the international contract HG=F, ATR is 0.0815, usable as a volatility reference, while domestic ATR data awaits update. Key levels: upside resistance in sequence at R1 = 78,573.33 and H20 = 78,330.00; downside support in sequence at P = 77,846.67, MA5 = 77,434.00, S1 = 77,363.33 and MA20 = 76,179.00. A sustained hold above 78,330 could open further upside; a break below 77,363 would likely weaken the short-term bullish structure.
Weekly data were not provided and monthly data are also missing, so no expansion is possible for now. Judging solely from the daily structure, SHFE Copper is in a firm-to-bullish consolidation, though weakness in the international market may cap upside.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Data on macro rates, the US dollar index and inflation expectations were not provided in this dataset, so no quantitative analysis is possible. Inventory data, central-bank gold purchases, ETF holdings and geopolitical events are likewise missing; fundamental drivers overall await update.
Against the international benchmark, HG=F closed at USD 4.6565/lb on 2025-02-14, down 2.36% on the day, while SHFE Copper rose 0.89% the same day — a clear onshore-offshore divergence. HG=F is up 1.64% over five days and 5.58% over 20 days, indicating international copper prices remain in a medium-term uptrend but are correcting near term. On positioning, HG=F's chPos is 80.00%, down sharply from 99.80% on 13 Feb, suggesting a rapid decline in international long concentration, possibly reflecting profit-taking by some funds.
Lacking domestic inventories, import profit/loss and scrap-virgin spreads, no quantitative judgment on SHFE Copper fundamentals is possible. If inventory data are released later, focus should be on the pace of accumulation versus drawdown. Continued inventory declines would support copper prices; an above-expected build could cap the rebound. Macro-wise, a stronger dollar or higher rate expectations would pressure copper, while a weaker dollar or rising easing expectations would provide a tailwind. Current data are insufficient to call direction; more information should be awaited.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
Domestically, SHFE Copper main-contract open interest rose from 180,965 lots on 11 Feb to 183,353 lots on 14 Feb, an increase of 2,388 lots, or about 1.32%. Over the same period price rose from CNY 77,150.00/t to CNY 78,090.00/t, up about 1.22%, an open interest build on rising prices that indicates active long-side entry. Turnover on 14 Feb was 84,534 lots, up 10,161 lots from 74,373 lots on 13 Feb, reflecting higher market activity.
International COT data show a date mismatch: the latest four releases are 2026-09-15, 2026-09-08, 2026-09-01 and 2026-08-25, which do not align with the current 2025-02-14 timeframe and cannot be used directly to analyse the current positioning structure. On the data alone, net longs on 2026-09-15 were 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from 82,154 lots the prior week, a decline of about 20.75%; total open interest OI was 289,463 lots, down 8,028 lots from 297,491 lots the prior week. Falling net longs alongside lower total open interest indicate long liquidation, but the data are not timely enough to serve as a basis for current trading.
Options and volatility data were not provided, so no analysis is possible. On crowding, HG=F's chPos fell from 99.80% to 80.00%, showing some relief in international long crowding, while domestic positioning-crowding data are missing. Overall, domestic flows are mildly bullish while international flows are short-term bearish; the onshore-offshore divergence may amplify volatility.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Cross-asset ratios such as gold/silver, gold/oil and copper/gold were not provided in this dataset, so specific values and percentile levels cannot be computed. Only a qualitative observation of the copper onshore-offshore ratio is possible.
SHFE Copper main contract closed at CNY 78,090.00/t and HG=F closed at USD 4.6565/lb. Converted at the current exchange rate, the onshore-offshore spread data await update. Judging by percentage moves, however, SHFE Copper rose 0.89% on 14 Feb while HG=F fell 2.36%, a clear onshore-offshore divergence. If this persists, it may attract cross-market arbitrage flows, which could weigh on SHFE Copper or support COMEX copper.
Lacking data on correlated assets such as gold and crude oil, copper/gold and oil/gold ratios cannot be analysed. If data are updated later, watch whether the copper/gold ratio sits at historical lows or highs to gauge copper's relative valuation. For now, stay on the sidelines pending completion of cross-asset data.
V. Sentiment
Domestic headline data over the last 48 hours are N/A, so sentiment information cannot be retrieved. Sentiment scores were also not provided, so market sentiment cannot be quantified.
From price behaviour, SHFE Copper's two-day rally with rising open interest may reflect short-term optimism. However, HG=F's 2.36% single-day drop and chPos falling from 99.80% to 80.00% show international investors turning cautious. Divergent onshore-offshore sentiment may increase volatility. If further domestic bullish news emerges, SHFE Copper may extend its rebound; if the international market keeps weakening, the rebound's height will be limited. Follow-up news flow should be monitored, but no directional call can be made at present.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
Seasonality data were not provided and the same-period data for the last 10 years are also missing, so no historical statistical analysis is possible. Judging only from the last five sessions, SHFE Copper trended higher over 10–14 Feb apart from minor pullbacks on 11 and 12 Feb, with the 14 Feb close marking a 5-day high. But the sample is too small to infer any seasonal pattern.
If same-period historical data become available, watch whether copper prices typically rise or fall in February. For now, rely primarily on technicals; historical patterns await update.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors: 1) SHFE Copper closed at CNY 78,090.00/t, above MA5 = 77,434.00 and MA20 = 76,179.00, with short-cycle MAs in bullish alignment; 2) open interest rose to 183,353 lots, an open interest build on rising prices with inflows; 3) price is approaching the 20-day high of 78,330.00, and a breakout could attract trend-following funds; 4) HG=F is up 5.58% over 20 days, so the medium-term trend remains bullish.
Bearish factors: 1) HG=F fell 2.36% on 14 Feb, and international weakness may drag SHFE Copper; 2) HG=F's chPos fell from 99.80% to 80.00%, easing long crowding and possibly triggering further unwinding; 3) SHFE Copper is near the 20-day high of 78,330.00 and R1 = 78,573.33, where technical resistance is strong; 4) although COT net-long data are mis-timed, the latest release shows net longs down 17,048 lots, indicating international long liquidation.
Short- versus medium-term balance: domestic longs dominate near term, but international short pressure is emerging. If SHFE Copper holds the 77,363.33 support, it may retest 78,573.33; a break below 77,363.33 could see a retest of MA20 = 76,179.00. The medium-term direction depends on macro and inventory data; current data are insufficient to judge.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Range-bound long. If price pulls back to the 77,363.33–77,434.00 zone and stabilizes, a light long can be attempted, with entry reference at 77,400, stop-loss below 77,000, target 78,573.33, horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 20%, conviction 6.
Strategy 2: Short at resistance. If price rallies to the 78,330.00–78,573.33 zone and meets resistance, a light short can be attempted, with entry reference at 78,500, stop-loss above 79,000, target 77,400, horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10%, conviction 5.
Risk management: Strict stop-loss; loss per trade must not exceed 1% of total capital. If price breaks above 79,000 or below 77,000, reassess. Avoid heavy overnight positions; monitor international market linkage.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is N/A; a specific event table cannot be provided. It is recommended to monitor daily inventory data, macro policy news, and international copper price trends. If the calendar is updated later, key focus should be placed on Fed officials speeches, China PMI, etc. Current data pending update.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.