I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 77,130/t on February 26, 2025, down 0.1036% from the previous trading day, with volume of 102,757 lots and open interest of 168,493 lots. Over the past five trading days, the contract has shown a pattern of volatile decline: it closed at CNY 77,850/t on February 20 (+1.1039%), CNY 77,170/t on February 21 (-0.5157%), CNY 77,320/t on February 24 (-0.2837%), CNY 76,950/t on February 25 (-0.6071%), and CNY 77,130/t on February 26 (-0.1036%). Cumulatively over five days, the price has fallen from 77,850 to 77,130, a decline of approximately 0.92%.
On the moving average system, as of February 26, MA5 stood at CNY 77,284/t and MA20 at CNY 76,773/t. The closing price of 77,130 sits about 154 points below MA5 but about 357 points above MA20. The short-term moving average has flattened, while the medium-term moving average still shows a mild upward slope, indicating that the medium-term trend remains intact but short-term momentum has weakened. The 20-day high (H20) is CNY 78,580/t and the 20-day low (L20) is CNY 74,840/t; the current price is in the upper-middle portion of this range. The pivot (P) is 77,083.33, the first resistance (R1) is 77,636.67, and the first support (S1) is 76,576.67. The closing price is slightly above the pivot but below R1, suggesting that bulls and bears are contesting around the pivot level.
On technical indicators, specific values for RSI, MACD, ATR, etc., were not provided in the data and are pending update. However, based on the relationship between price and moving averages, RSI is likely in a neutral-to-weak zone, MACD may be showing signs of a bearish crossover above the zero line, and ATR should be estimated against the international ATR of USD 0.0854/lb to gauge volatility. Internationally, HG=F closed at USD 4.5420/lb on February 26, up 1.25%, down 0.33% over five days, and up 7.62% over 20 days, with an ATR of 0.0854; the pivot P, R1, and S1 are all 4.5420, indicating amplified short-term volatility in the overseas market.
Key levels: upside resistance lies sequentially at MA5 77,284, R1 77,636.67, and H20 78,580; downside support lies sequentially at pivot P 77,083.33, S1 76,576.67, MA20 76,773, and L20 74,840. If the price holds firmly above MA20, the medium-term upward structure is maintained; if it breaks below S1, it may accelerate lower toward L20.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, the data did not provide specific rates, the dollar index, or inflation data; these are pending update. However, international copper is priced in US dollars, so the dollar's trend has a direct impact on copper prices. A stronger dollar weighs on copper, while a weaker dollar provides support. The current 20-day gain of 7.62% in HG=F suggests the dollar may be soft or that copper's own supply-demand balance is tight.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, the data did not provide LME, SHFE, or COMEX copper inventory figures, nor central bank gold purchase data; these are pending update. Copper inventories typically reflect the supply-demand balance: falling inventories support prices, while rising inventories weigh on them. Central bank gold buying affects gold more directly and has limited direct impact on copper, though it may transmit indirectly through macro sentiment.
On ETF holdings, the data did not provide changes in copper ETF positions; these are pending update. ETF flows can reflect institutional allocation demand for copper: ETF accumulation is bullish, while reduction is bearish.
On geopolitics, the data did not provide recent geopolitical events; these are pending update. Geopolitical conflicts may affect copper mine supply or transportation, thereby disrupting prices. For example, political turmoil in major copper-producing countries could trigger supply concerns.
On domestic policy, the data did not provide recent policy developments; these are pending update. However, as the largest copper consumer, China's policies on infrastructure, real estate, and new energy significantly affect copper demand. If policy stimulus intensifies, copper demand expectations improve; if policy tightens, demand expectations weaken.
Overall, the fundamental drivers are mixed, but lack specific data for verification and require subsequent updates. The current price is being driven more by technicals and fund flows.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest stood at 168,493 lots on February 26, up 1,555 lots from 166,938 lots on February 25, down 3,668 lots from 172,161 lots on February 24, down 2,638 lots from 171,131 lots on February 21, and up 41 lots from 168,452 lots on February 20. Open interest has fluctuated little overall, but has declined continuously since February 24, indicating some capital is exiting. Volume on February 26 was 102,757 lots, significantly higher than in prior days, suggesting widening disagreement between bulls and bears.
On international COT positioning, the data provided four weeks of non-commercial positions (though the dates are labeled 2026, which appears to be a data error; quoted as in the original): 2026-09-15 OI=289,463, L=83,704, S=18,598, net=65,106, Δ=-17,048; 2026-09-08 OI=297,491, L=98,007, S=15,853, net=82,154, Δ=9,272; 2026-09-01 OI=282,640, L=91,430, S=18,548, net=72,882, Δ=-3,389; 2026-08-25 OI=283,299, L=92,107, S=15,836, net=76,271, Δ=-2,377. In the most recent week, net longs stood at 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior week, with clear long liquidation and a slight short build, reducing crowding. If this trend continues, upward pressure on copper prices will increase.
On options and volatility, the data did not provide option positions or volatility indices; these are pending update. However, the international ATR of USD 0.0854/lb is at a relatively high level, suggesting rising short-term volatility, and implied volatility may be moving higher in tandem.
On fund flows, rising domestic volume alongside falling open interest may indicate that short-term capital is dominant while trend-following capital waits on the sidelines. Internationally, HG=F's position change (chPos) was 56.40%, fluctuating from 48.40%, 55.50%, 63.00%, and 71.50% in prior days, showing unstable fund sentiment.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Specific values for the gold-silver ratio, gold-oil ratio, copper-gold ratio, etc., were not provided in the data and are pending update. However, inferences can be drawn from existing data: international copper HG=F closed at USD 4.5420/lb on February 26, up 7.62% over 20 days, showing relative strength. If gold's gain over the same period lagged copper, the copper-gold ratio would rise, reflecting improved growth expectations; if gold outperformed, the copper-gold ratio would fall, reflecting dominant risk-off sentiment.
Due to the lack of specific gold and crude oil prices, precise ratios and percentiles cannot be calculated; these are pending update. However, attention should be paid to the leading relationship between the copper-gold ratio and global manufacturing PMI: a sustained rise in the copper-gold ratio may signal an industrial demand recovery, while weakness may signal recession risk.
On cross-market ratios, SHFE Copper and international copper prices are subject to exchange rate and tax differentials. On February 26, SHFE Copper closed at CNY 77,130/t while HG=F closed at USD 4.5420/lb; converting at 1 tonne = 2,204.62 lb, the international copper price is approximately USD 10,014/t, or about CNY 72,101/t at an exchange rate of 7.2, roughly CNY 5,029/t below SHFE Copper, indicating a domestic premium or import loss. However, the actual ratio must account for VAT, tariffs, and other factors; these are pending update.
V. Sentiment
On sentiment scores, the data did not provide specific sentiment indicators; these are pending update. Domestic headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=COPPER) were N/A, with no headline data available, pending update. Therefore, market sentiment cannot be quantified.
From price behavior, SHFE Copper has seen mixed gains and losses for five consecutive days: after a sharp 1.1039% rise on February 20, it declined for four straight days, but with limited downside, suggesting cautious sentiment and no panic selling. The 1.25% gain in international HG=F on February 26 may boost domestic sentiment. However, with domestic headlines missing, the tone of public opinion cannot be determined.
It is recommended to monitor subsequent news: if supply disruption or policy stimulus news emerges, sentiment may turn bullish; if weak demand or inventory accumulation news emerges, sentiment may turn bearish.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonal Patterns
On seasonality, the data did not provide same-period price performance over the past 10 years; these are pending update. However, general experience suggests that late February through March is the prelude to the domestic copper consumption peak season, and downstream restocking may support prices. This year's situation, however, must be assessed against specific inventory and order data.
On historical volatility patterns, the data was not provided and is pending update. However, the international ATR of USD 0.0854/lb is at a mid-to-high historical level, suggesting potentially large short-term swings.
Referring to the past five days, SHFE Copper has oscillated within the 77,850–76,950 range, with an amplitude of about 900 points, or roughly 1.17%. If historical same-period volatility is similar, the coming week may maintain this amplitude.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish case: 1) SHFE Copper closed at 77,130, above the MA20 of 76,773, with medium-term moving-average support intact; 2) International HG=F rose +1.25% on Feb 26 and +7.62% over 20 days, and overseas strength may spill over into the domestic market; 3) COT net longs of 65,106 lots, though reduced, remain net long, while short positions of 18,598 lots are relatively low; 4) Domestic volume expanded to 102,757 lots, which may attract short-term buying.
Bearish case: 1) SHFE Copper has fallen for four consecutive sessions, with weak short-term momentum; 2) The close is below the MA5 of 77,284, with short-term moving-average resistance; 3) COT net longs fell by 17,048 lots versus the prior week, indicating clear long liquidation; 4) Domestic open interest declined, with capital outflows; 5) The international market fell -0.33% over five days, leaving the short-term trend unclear.
Short- vs medium-term balance: Short term (1–5 days), bears hold a slight edge, as price is below the MA5 and has fallen consecutively; medium term (1–4 weeks), bulls still hold the advantage, as price is above the MA20 and the overseas 20-day gain is substantial. If price holds firmly above the MA20, the probability of a medium-term advance increases; if it breaks below S1 at 76,576.67, short-term downside space opens up.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Light long within the range. Entry reference near 77,083.33 (pivot P), stop-loss below 76,576.67 (S1), targets 77,636.67 (R1) or 78,580 (H20), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10%, conviction 6. Exit on a stop if price breaks below S1.
Strategy 2: Short on strength. Entry reference near 77,636.67 (R1), stop-loss above 78,580 (H20), targets 76,773 (MA20) or 76,576.67 (S1), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 8%, conviction 5. Stop out if price breaks above H20.
Risk management: Strict stop-loss discipline, with a single-trade loss capped at 2% of total capital; monitor international HG=F moves and COT positioning changes; adjust positions promptly in the event of major macro or geopolitical developments.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic economic calendar for the next seven days is N/A, with data pending. Watch for: China February PMI, US initial jobless claims, Fed officials' speeches, LME copper inventory changes, and Chilean mine production dynamics. Specific times to be updated.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.