I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-03-03, SHFE Silver (SHFE.AG) main continuous contract closed at 7907.00, up 0.0253% intraday, with volume of 188,556 lots and open interest of 292,297 lots. Over the past five trading sessions, the price has retreated steadily from the 2025-02-25 close of 8017.00: it closed at 7904.00 on February 26 (-1.5814%), 7900.00 on February 27 (-0.3280%), and 7869.00 on February 28 (-0.5560%), before stabilizing modestly to close at 7907.00 on March 3. The range high is the 20-day high of 8286.00 and the range low is the 20-day low of 7640.00; the current price sits in the lower-middle portion of that band.
The moving-average system displays a bearish alignment: on March 3, MA5 stood at 7919.40 and MA20 at 8016.60, with the close of 7907.00 below both MA5 and MA20, and MA5 below MA20, indicating soft short-term momentum while the medium-term average continues to cap upside. On February 25, MA5 was still at 8097.00 and MA20 at 7992.25; since then MA5 has shifted down rapidly, reflecting a steep one-week correction slope.
On pivots and key levels, the March 3 pivot P is 7887.67, first resistance R1 is 7953.33, and first support S1 is 7841.33. The close of 7907.00 sits above P but below R1, a mildly weak consolidation just above the pivot. If the price holds firmly above P (7887.67), the short term could test R1 (7953.33) and even MA20 (8016.60); if S1 (7841.33) gives way, attention turns to the February 28 low zone and L20 (7640.00).
On oscillators, this issue's data does not provide domestic RSI, MACD, or ATR readings; those figures are pending update. For reference, the international contract SI=F shows an ATR of 0.6830, up from 0.5729 on February 25, indicating rising volatility in international silver; if the domestic market moves in sync, intraday range management should be widened accordingly. Overall technical assessment: medium-term range-bound, short-term biased to the weak, with directional resolution hinging on the 7900–8020 zone.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, this issue's data segment does not provide readings for the dollar index, Treasury yields, or real rates; the relevant analytics are pending update. Judging from available international performance, SI=F closed at 32.0320 on 2025-03-03, up 2.60% on the day, while SHFE Silver rose only 0.0253% — a pronounced onshore-offshore divergence. Such divergence is typically related to FX, the onshore-offshore spread, and domestic risk appetite, but the quantitative data for the specific drivers is missing this issue, so forced attribution is not warranted.
On inventories and central-bank gold buying, this issue's data does not include SHFE silver inventories, COMEX stocks, or central-bank purchase figures; inventory percentiles and trend changes are pending update. It should be noted that silver carries both monetary and industrial attributes; central-bank gold buying transmits mainly through precious-metals sector sentiment, so its direct impact on this instrument is weaker than on gold, and the strength of that linkage needs to be assessed once data is supplemented.
On ETFs and investment demand, this issue does not provide global silver ETF holdings; subscription/redemption flows are pending update.
On geopolitics and risk events, this issue provides no domestic headlines from the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER returned N/A) and no geopolitical event list, so sentiment-driven impulses cannot yet be quantified. In sum, the fundamental information confirmable this issue is limited; the only clear points are that the international SI=F is down a cumulative 1.67 over five days and 0.30 over 20 days, while SHFE Silver has fallen from 8017.00 to 7907.00 over the same period — both are in a corrective phase, but the international rebound on March 3 was markedly stronger than the domestic one. If the international rebound continues while the domestic market lags, the onshore-offshore spread may widen further, creating room for a repair move; if the international rebound fails, domestic downside pressure will increase.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Silver main continuous open interest (OI) recovered from 259,346 lots on February 27 to 288,417 lots on February 28, and then to 292,297 lots on March 3 — two consecutive days of open interest build; over the same window, volume eased from 783,725 lots on February 26 to 188,556 lots on March 3. Shrinking volume with rising open interest suggests short covering or tentative long entries after selling pressure was released.
On international COT positioning, the latest available data shows net longs of 13,124 lots, down 1,262 lots from the prior value; the previous week saw net longs of 14,386 lots, up 1,788 lots week-on-week, and the week before that 12,598 lots, down 1,475 lots. Total open interest (OI) is 103,745 lots, with long positions of 20,205 lots and short positions of 7,081 lots. Net longs have fluctuated and edged down in the latest week, indicating that international speculative money has marginally reduced exposure after earlier builds — crowding has eased somewhat, but the direction is unclear. Note that the COT data's date basis does not match the current report date; it is for structural reference only, and the corresponding weekly period is pending update.
On options and volatility, this issue provides no domestic option open interest, implied volatility, or skew data; those metrics are pending update. The available proxy is SI=F's ATR rising from 0.5729 to 0.6830; higher realized volatility usually accompanies higher option implied vols, but without direct readings no quantitative claim is appropriate. Overall assessment: domestic volume down with open interest up, international net longs down — the funding picture is neutral-to-cautious, with no consensus direction yet formed.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
This issue's data segment does not provide specific prices for gold, crude oil, or copper, so the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and their historical percentiles cannot be computed; those figures are pending update. This is the main data gap in the cross-asset dimension of this report.
An indirect reference is the SHFE-vs-international silver ratio: at March 3 closes, SHFE Silver at 7907.00 CNY/kg corresponds to SI=F at 32.0320 USD/oz; the two are quoted in different units and FX bases, so they cannot simply be divided to yield a valid ratio. A CNY exchange rate and unit-conversion factor are required, but no FX data is provided this issue, so the specific onshore-offshore ratio value is pending update.
A qualitative comparison from the divergence angle: SI=F is down a cumulative 1.67 over five days and 0.30 over 20 days, with a +2.60% single-day move on March 3; SHFE Silver has fallen from 8017.00 to 7907.00 over five days, with a +0.0253% single-day move on March 3. The international rebound is significantly stronger than the domestic one; if this divergence persists, the domestic market has catch-up potential versus international. Conversely, if international silver rolls over, the domestic market — having fallen relatively less — may show relative resilience. With cross-asset percentile data missing, it is recommended to use the onshore-offshore spread and sector linkage as substitute observation metrics, and to complete the ratio matrix once gold, crude, copper, and FX data are updated.
V. Sentiment
This issue's past-48-hour domestic headlines (market=CN, asset=SILVER) returned N/A, with no usable news sample; therefore no sentiment score can be calculated, nor can headline bias (bullish/bearish/neutral proportions) be tallied. Sentiment and public-opinion metrics are pending update.
Inferring indirectly from price behavior: SHFE Silver rose a marginal 0.0253% on March 3 with shrinking volume and rising open interest, while international SI=F gained 2.60% the same day; overall market sentiment is in a watchful repair state, with no signs of panic selling (volume has fallen from 783,725 lots on February 26 to 188,556 lots). In the absence of sentiment samples, no directional call on sentiment is recommended; the relevant monitoring items will be supplemented once data is restored.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
This issue's data segment does not provide SHFE Silver seasonality statistics, the past-10-year same-period gain/loss distribution, or monthly-effect data; the historical-statistics section is pending update.
The limited observation possible is: the current price of 7907.00 sits in the lower-middle part of the 20-day band of 7640.00–8286.00, roughly 4.8% below the 20-day high of 8286.00 (on closing-price basis) and roughly 3.5% above the 20-day low of 7640.00. Without historical percentile data, it is not possible to judge whether the current level is seasonally high or low. It is recommended to supplement the past-10-year March SHFE Silver return distribution and March volatility seasonality before further assessment.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish logic: (1) On March 3, SHFE Silver closed at 7907.00, holding above the pivot P (7887.67), an early sign of short-term stabilization; (2) International SI=F rallied 2.60% to 32.0320 on the same day, with the stronger overseas market providing positive pull to the domestic contract; (3) Open interest has rebounded for two consecutive sessions to 292,297 lots, with shrinking volume alongside an open interest build indicating easing selling pressure; (4) Price has moved into the zone just above the 20-day low of 7640.00, downside is relatively limited, and the risk-reward profile has improved.
Bearish logic: (1) The close of 7907.00 remains below both MA5 (7919.40) and MA20 (8016.60), leaving the bearish moving-average alignment intact; (2) Over the past five sessions the contract has fallen from 8017.00, with a single-day drop of 1.5814% on February 26, and the pullback trend has not yet been confirmed as over; (3) The latest COT net long stands at 13,124 lots, down 1,262 lots sequentially, as international speculative capital trims positions at the margin; (4) SI=F is down a cumulative 1.67 over five sessions and 0.30 over 20 sessions, still in negative-return territory on a medium-term horizon, casting doubt on the durability of the rebound.
Short- vs medium-term balance: Short term (1–5 days), longs and shorts are tussling within the 7887.67 (P) to 7953.33 (R1) band; the overseas rebound offers marginal support, but domestic moving averages cap clearly, leaving forces roughly balanced with a slight bullish tilt. Medium term (1–4 weeks), with MA20 (8016.60) unrecovered, the bearish structure prevails; absent an effective break above 8016.60, the lower end of the range at 7640.00 may be retested repeatedly. The overall assessment is a range-bound market; trend-following opportunities await confirmation of a range breakout.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range dip-buying, LONG): Enter near 7887.67 (pivot P) or on a pullback to 7841.33 (S1) once stabilization emerges; set the stop-loss below 7820 (a buffer beneath S1); target 7953.33 (R1) and 8016.60 (MA20); horizon 1–5 trading days; position size capped at 15% of total capital; conviction 6. If S1 (7841.33) is breached and confirmed on a closing basis, the strategy is invalidated and the position should be exited.
Strategy 2 (rebound selling, SHORT): If price rebounds into the 7953.33 (R1) to 8016.60 (MA20) zone and stalls, a small short can be attempted, with entry referenced in the 7980–8016 region; set the stop-loss above 8030; targets are a return to 7887.67 (P) and 7841.33 (S1); horizon 1–5 trading days; position size capped at 10% of total capital; conviction 5. If MA20 (8016.60) is broken on volume and held, the bearish thesis is falsified and the stop-loss must be triggered.
Risk management: Keep single-trade risk exposure within 2% of total capital; with international ATR rising to 0.6830 and volatility expanding, stop-loss width should be widened accordingly to avoid being shaken out by intraday noise; during the domestic phase of shrinking volume with an open interest build, liquidity declines, so avoid chasing orders with heavy positions; while cross-asset and FX data are unavailable, onshore-offshore arbitrage is not recommended.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next seven days returned N/A; no confirmed domestic events are scheduled, and the specific agenda awaits update. Routine tracking items to watch include: weekly changes in SHFE silver inventories, SI=F positioning and COT updates overseas, and macro data releases affecting the precious metals complex. Specific dates and consensus estimates for these events are missing this issue and will be added once the data feed is restored.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.