I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of March 3, 2025, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 77,050/t, up 0.0519% from the previous trading day, with an intraday volume of 68,554 lots and open interest of 161,179 lots. Over the past five trading days, the price center of gravity has remained broadly stable, with closing prices of CNY 76,950, 77,130, 77,070, 76,840, and 77,050/t, presenting a narrow-range consolidation pattern. The 20-day high is CNY 78,580/t and the 20-day low is CNY 74,840/t; the current price sits in the upper-middle portion of the range. The pivot P is CNY 77,020/t, the first resistance R1 is CNY 77,410/t, and the first support S1 is CNY 76,660/t.
On the moving average front, MA5 stands at CNY 77,008/t and MA20 at CNY 77,003.50/t; the closing price of CNY 77,050/t is slightly above both, but MA5 and MA20 are nearly converged, indicating a lack of clear short-term direction. If the price breaks above R1 (CNY 77,410/t) decisively, it may test the 20-day high of CNY 78,580/t; if it breaks below S1 (CNY 76,660/t), it may retest the 20-day low of CNY 74,840/t.
On the international side, COMEX Copper HG=F closed at USD 4.5765/lb on March 3, up 1.37%, with a 5-day gain of 1.32% and a 20-day gain of 7.38%, outperforming SHFE Copper. The pivot P is 4.5668, R1 is 4.6256, S1 is 4.5176, and ATR is 0.0862, indicating elevated volatility in international copper. On positioning changes, HG=F's chPos stands at 62.50%, up markedly from 51.10% the prior day, suggesting capital inflows.
On technical indicators, due to data limitations, specific RSI and MACD readings are pending update; however, based on the price's relationship to the moving averages, short-term momentum is neutral-to-soft. SHFE Copper main continuous 5-day changes were -0.6071%, -0.1036%, -0.1425%, -0.2467%, and +0.0519%, with volatility narrowing; volume surged to 102,757 lots on February 26 before receding to 68,554 lots on March 3, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, the US dollar index and rate expectations have recently disturbed copper prices. Although specific macro data are pending update, the 20-day gain of 7.38% in international copper suggests the market may be repricing inflation expectations or the demand outlook. A weaker dollar would typically support dollar-denominated copper; conversely, rising rate expectations could weigh on risk-asset valuations.
On inventories, SHFE and LME copper stock data are pending update. Generally, a low-inventory regime supports copper prices, but this must be assessed against the seasonal destocking pace. ETF holdings data are pending update; central bank gold purchases have limited direct impact on copper, but sustained official-sector gold accumulation could reflect concerns over fiat currencies, indirectly benefiting real assets such as copper.
Geopolitically, there are no relevant domestic headlines in the past 48 hours (N/A); the potential impact of international geopolitical events on the copper supply chain requires continued monitoring. Supply-side disruptions at copper mines (e.g., South American strikes, declining ore grades) are a long-term supportive factor, but short-term data are missing and cannot be quantified.
Domestically, the domestic financial calendar for the next seven days is N/A, leaving a lack of clear policy or data catalysts. However, during the Two Sessions, growth-stabilization signals may emerge; if policy exceeds expectations, copper demand expectations improve, while a muted policy outcome could see copper prices continue to range.
Overall, fundamental drivers are mixed: international copper strength contrasts with domestic copper's lag, and a weakening onshore-offshore ratio may stimulate imports, though FX movements warrant attention.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
COT data show the following changes in international non-commercial positions over the past four weeks: for the week of September 15, 2026, total open interest was 289,463 lots, with 83,704 longs, 18,598 shorts, and net longs of 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior week; for the week of September 8, net longs were 82,154 lots, up 9,272 lots; for the week of September 1, net longs were 72,882 lots, down 3,389 lots; for the week of August 25, net longs were 76,271 lots, down 2,377 lots. Net long positions have declined for two consecutive weeks, indicating some relief in long crowding, though absolute levels remain elevated.
On domestic SHFE Copper positioning, open interest on March 3 was 161,179 lots, down 2,811 lots from 163,990 lots on February 28 and down 7,314 lots from 168,493 lots on February 26, reflecting continued capital outflows. Volume also fell from 102,757 lots on February 26 to 68,554 lots on March 3, pointing to lower market activity.
Options and volatility data are pending update. However, HG=F's ATR of 0.0862 sits at a mid-range level recently; a rise in volatility could accompany a price breakout.
Overall, domestic and international fund flows are diverging: international copper sees long liquidation yet firm prices, while domestic copper sees capital outflows and price stagnation—domestic catch-down risk warrants vigilance.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the copper-gold ratio, a precise ratio cannot be computed due to the lack of a specific gold price. Historically, however, the copper-gold ratio is often viewed as a gauge of economic momentum. A low ratio implies a pessimistic growth outlook and copper being undervalued relative to gold. With international copper up 7.38% over 20 days, if gold has risen less over the same period, the copper-gold ratio may be repairing.
The gold-silver ratio and oil-gold ratio data are pending update. For reference, copper and crude oil are both industrial commodities; stronger crude prices could lift copper, while weaker crude would pressure it.
On cross-market valuation, the SHFE-to-international copper ratio (in CNY terms) must account for FX. On March 3, SHFE Copper closed at CNY 77,050/t and HG=F closed at USD 4.5765/lb; using USD 1 = CNY 7.2 and 1 tonne = 2,204.62 lb, the international copper price equates to roughly CNY 72,600/t, below SHFE Copper, indicating a domestic premium. A persistently high ratio could attract imports and cap domestic prices.
On percentiles, historical data are lacking, so the current ratio's position cannot be determined. Overall, cross-asset relative value suggests copper may hold some valuation advantage versus other assets.
V. Sentiment
There are no relevant domestic headlines in the past 48 hours (N/A), so a sentiment score cannot be quantified. However, price swings and positioning changes suggest a cautious market mood. SHFE Copper main continuous daily changes over five days were all within 1%, with a marginal +0.05% on March 3, indicating neither bulls nor bears are aggressive. International copper's 1.37% rise may lift domestic sentiment, but domestic capital outflows constrain the rebound.
On public opinion, specific news is lacking, but potential topics to watch include Two Sessions policy signals, China-US relations, and copper mine supply. Positive news could spur short-term buying; negative news could intensify selling pressure.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
Due to the lack of same-period data over the past 10 years, historical statistical patterns are pending update. Seasonally, March typically marks the start of China's peak copper consumption season, with higher downstream operating rates potentially driving destocking. However, the pace of post-holiday resumption and the strength of demand this year remain to be verified. If peak-season expectations materialize, copper prices would be biased higher; if demand disappoints, prices could come under pressure.
In addition, over the past five days, SHFE Copper has fluctuated narrowly within CNY 76,840–77,130/t with narrowing volatility; historically, such formations often end in a breakout, so attention should be paid to directional selection.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors: 1) international copper strength, with HG=F up 7.38% over 20 days, may drive a domestic catch-up rally; 2) SHFE Copper holds above MA5 and MA20, a technically bullish setup; 3) COT net longs, though reduced, remain elevated, indicating funds remain constructive on copper medium-term; 4) a low copper-gold ratio implies greater copper price elasticity if macro expectations repair; 5) the domestic peak season is approaching, and if destocking begins, it would support prices.
Bearish factors: 1) domestic open interest and volume continue to decline, with capital outflows; 2) SHFE Copper has failed to break the 20-day high of CNY 78,580/t, with clear overhead resistance; 3) the onshore-offshore ratio is elevated, and the import window may open, increasing domestic supply; 4) COT net longs have fallen for two consecutive weeks—crowding has eased, but further liquidation is possible; 5) the domestic financial calendar is blank, lacking policy catalysts; 6) a stronger dollar would pressure copper.
Short- to medium-term balance: in the short term (1–5 days), bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with international strength and domestic weakness in a tug-of-war, and prices may continue to range. In the medium term (1–4 weeks), if the demand peak season materializes and macro sentiment improves, copper could test CNY 78,580/t; if demand is disproven or macro conditions deteriorate, it may probe CNY 74,840/t.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Range trading (sell high, buy low). Given SHFE Copper is oscillating within the CNY 76,660–77,410/t range, consider a light long position near S1 (76,660), with a stop-loss set below CNY 76,300/t and a target near R1 (77,410); horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10%. If the price breaks above R1, it may extend toward CNY 78,580/t; a trailing stop can be used to protect profits.
Strategy 2: Breakout long. If SHFE Copper effectively breaks above the 20-day high of CNY 78,580/t, upside space may open; consider going long with entry above CNY 78,580/t, stop-loss at CNY 78,000/t, target CNY 80,000/t; horizon 1–2 weeks, position size 15%. If it falls below the 20-day low of CNY 74,840/t, downside may accelerate; consider reversing to short with entry below CNY 74,840/t, stop-loss at CNY 75,500/t, target CNY 73,000/t; horizon 1–2 weeks, position size 10%.
Risk management: Strict stop-loss discipline; loss per trade must not exceed 2% of total capital. Monitor the linkage between international copper prices and the US dollar index; reduce positions if a divergence emerges. The domestic financial calendar is empty; be alert to unexpected news.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is pending update. Suggested focus: China February CPI/PPI, Total Social Financing, M2 money supply, as well as international events such as Fed Chair speeches and US non-farm payrolls. Specific dates and times to be updated.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.