I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the 2025-03-03 close, the SHFE Gold main contract settled at CNY 673.98/g, down 0.36% on the day, with turnover of 111,016 lots and open interest of 134,870 lots. Over the past five trading sessions, the contract has posted consecutive declines: 02-25 closed at CNY 685.58 (+0.13%), 02-26 at CNY 679.42 (-1.09%), 02-27 at CNY 678.52 (-0.37%), 02-28 at CNY 673.48 (-0.96%), and 03-03 at CNY 673.98 (-0.36%). Cumulatively over the five sessions, the price has retreated from CNY 685.58 to CNY 673.98, a decline of approximately 1.69%.
The moving average structure has weakened: the 03-03 close of CNY 673.98 now sits below both the MA5 (CNY 678.20) and the MA20 (CNY 678.73), with short-term averages beginning to turn lower and price trading beneath the moving average system — an early-stage bearish alignment. The 20-day range high is CNY 691.76 and the low is CNY 645.06; the current price sits in the upper-middle portion of the range, around the 53rd percentile. The pivot P is CNY 671.80, R1 resistance is CNY 676.64, and S1 support is CNY 669.14. The close is marginally above the pivot, giving a clear short-term bull/bear dividing line.
On momentum indicators, specific RSI and MACD readings are pending update; however, given the structure of three consecutive down closes below the MA5/MA20, short-horizon momentum skews bearish. ATR referencing the international contract GC=F stands at USD 42.85, with volatility at a mid-to-high level, and domestic main-contract intraday ranges have widened accordingly.
Key level assessment: the first overhead resistance is pivot R1 (CNY 676.64) and the MA20 (CNY 678.73), with strong resistance at the 20-day high of CNY 691.76; the first downside support is pivot S1 (CNY 669.14), with strong support at the 20-day low of CNY 645.06. If price holds firmly above CNY 676.64, a near-term recovery toward the CNY 678–680 zone is likely; a break below CNY 669.14 could open a further test of the CNY 645.06 area. On the weekly timeframe, until the 20-day high of CNY 691.76 is decisively cleared, the medium-term view should treat the market as a wide CNY 645–692 range.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Macro rates and USD dimension: international gold GC=F closed at USD 2,890.20 on 2025-03-03, surging 1.88% on the day, with a 5-day change of -1.96 and a 20-day change of +2.76, indicating that international gold has regained upside momentum after its earlier pullback. A notable divergence has emerged between international and SHFE gold — international gold rose 1.88% on the day while the SHFE main contract fell 0.36%, and the pressure for the onshore-offshore spread to converge warrants attention. Specific data for the dollar index and UST yields are pending update, but international gold strength typically corresponds to a weaker dollar or expectations of lower real rates.
Inflation and central-bank buying: specific monthly data on the global central-bank gold-purchasing trend is pending update. Judging from the resilience of international gold's 20-day gain of +2.76, official-sector allocation demand and safe-haven buying still constitute medium-term support. Domestically, RMB-denominated gold is affected by FX; if the RMB strengthens, SHFE gold faces relative pressure versus international gold, which may partly explain the onshore-offshore divergence.
Inventories and ETFs: SHFE gold inventory and domestic gold ETF holding changes are pending update. International GC=F open interest (OI) is shown as N/A, so changes in international fund positioning cannot be assessed.
Geopolitical factors: domestic headline data for the past 48 hours is N/A, so sentiment impact cannot be quantified. However, inferring from international gold's single-day gain of +1.88%, there may be rising safe-haven demand or macro-data-driven buying. The specifics and impact of geopolitical events are pending update and require continued tracking.
Overall, fundamentals present a “strong international, weak domestic” divergence, with the core tension lying in FX translation and domestic outflows. If international gold holds above USD 2,890, downside for SHFE gold should be limited; if international gold falls below USD 2,836.80 (the 02-28 close), SHFE gold may accelerate lower.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
Domestic positioning: SHFE gold main-contract open interest has declined steadily from 157,636 lots on 02-25 to 134,870 lots on 03-03, a reduction of 22,766 lots over five sessions, or roughly 14.4%. The 02-26 open interest of 128,465 lots marked the phase low; after rebounding to 139,767 lots on 02-27, it fell again. Persistent open interest outflow alongside falling prices is characteristic of long liquidation rather than aggressive short building — fund flows are bearish but have not turned panicky.
Turnover-to-open-interest ratio: on 03-03, turnover was 111,016 lots against open interest of 134,870 lots, a ratio of about 0.82, indicating neutral market activity. The 02-26 turnover of 436,896 lots was the recent peak; with price down 1.09% that day and open interest falling to 128,465 lots after the high-volume decline, it signals that some longs exited at stop-loss.
COT positioning (international comparison): the latest four weeks of data show net longs falling from 144,747 lots on 2026-08-25 to 133,116 lots on 2026-09-15, three consecutive weekly declines totaling 11,631 lots. The largest single-week drop was 7,976 lots on 2026-09-01, followed by 1,799 lots on 2026-09-08 and 1,856 lots on 2026-09-15, with the pace of reduction slowing. Long positions (L) fell from 159,819 lots to 142,394 lots, while short positions (S) fell from 15,072 lots to 9,278 lots — shorts were reduced in tandem, so the net-long decline was driven mainly by long liquidation.
Crowding assessment: net longs of 133,116 lots against total open interest of 409,899 lots imply a net-long share of about 32.5%, down from prior highs, indicating easing crowding. Note, however, that the COT data dates are in 2026 and are misaligned with the current 2025-03-03 reference; treat them as structural reference only. Options and volatility data are pending update.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Gold-silver ratio: the specific international gold-silver ratio reading is pending update. Inferring from gold GC=F closing at USD 2,890.20, if silver moves in tandem, the gold-silver ratio can reflect market risk appetite. With no silver price data currently available, an accurate ratio and its historical percentile cannot be computed.
Oil-gold ratio: crude oil price data is pending update, so the oil-gold ratio cannot be calculated. The oil-gold ratio is typically used to gauge inflation expectations and industrial demand; with data currently missing, no assessment can be made.
Copper-gold ratio: copper price data is pending update, so the copper-gold ratio cannot be calculated. The copper-gold ratio is an important economic-cycle indicator; its current percentile cannot be determined.
Domestic cross-commodity: SHFE gold versus SHFE silver and SHFE copper relative-value data are pending update. Judging from the main SHFE gold contract's single-day -0.36% performance, if SHFE silver falls in sync, the gold-silver ratio may hold steady; if SHFE silver falls more sharply, the gold-silver ratio would widen, reflecting rising safe-haven preference.
Overall, cross-asset relative-value data is entirely missing, so no quantitative percentile judgment can be offered. Watch for subsequent updates to the gold-silver, oil-gold, and copper-gold ratios to gauge the rotation of capital between safe-haven and risk assets. If the gold-silver ratio is at historical highs, silver is relatively undervalued; if the copper-gold ratio weakens, expectations of economic slowdown are rising, which is supportive for gold.
V. Sentiment
Sentiment score: quantitative sentiment indicators constructed from price and positioning behavior are pending update. Judging from five consecutive daily declines, open interest outflows, and neutral turnover, domestic sentiment is cautious, with weak long confidence. International gold's single-day +1.88% shows offshore sentiment leaning optimistic — a divergence between onshore and offshore sentiment.
Past-48h headline bias: domestic headline data is N/A, so positive/negative/neutral proportions cannot be tallied. Internationally, the sharp GC=F rally may have been accompanied by safe-haven or macro-positive news, but specifics are pending update.
Sentiment monitoring conclusion: quantifiable sentiment data is currently lacking, so sentiment judgment relies mainly on price behavior. If domestic headlines later turn positive (e.g., central-bank buying, geopolitical safe-haven demand), SHFE gold could be lifted; if headlines focus on RMB strength or weak domestic demand, SHFE gold would face pressure. Continued tracking is recommended.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
Seasonality: historical data on gold's March performance is pending update. Judging from the same period over the past 10 years, March is typically a post-Lunar-New-Year consumption off-season, with seasonally softer domestic gold prices, though international gold is more affected by macro events. With specific statistical values currently unavailable, no quantitative conclusion can be drawn.
Past-10-year same period: historical price and return data corresponding to 2025-03-03 are pending update, so year-over-year or percentile analysis cannot be performed.
Summary of statistical patterns: due to missing historical data, this section cannot currently offer a valid seasonal judgment. Watch for subsequent data updates and, combined with international gold's 20-day momentum of +2.76, assess whether the market is deviating from its historical mean. If SHFE gold turns oversold after three consecutive down days, historical statistics suggest a rebound probability, but this requires data verification.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments:
1. International gold GC=F closed at USD 2,890.20, +1.88% on the day and +2.76% over 20 days; overseas strength provides a floor for SHFE Gold;
2. SHFE Gold's 20-day low of CNY 645.06 has not been breached; the medium-term uptrend structure remains intact;
3. Open interest has fallen to 134,870 lots; after longs cut positions, selling pressure has eased, leaving room for a rebound if fresh buying enters;
4. COT net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks, but shorts are also cutting; net long share of 32.5% is still healthy, with no extreme crowding.
Bearish arguments:
1. SHFE Gold has closed lower for three consecutive sessions, below both MA5 (678.20) and MA20 (678.73); short-term moving averages have turned bearish;
2. Open interest has fallen by 22,766 lots over five days, with persistent fund outflows and a lack of incremental buying;
3. Onshore-offshore divergence: international gold is rising while SHFE Gold is falling, with RMB pricing pressure or FX factors weighing;
4. The 20-day high of CNY 691.76 is a clear cap; repeated failed rallies leave heavy trapped longs overhead.
Short- vs medium-term balance: Short term (1–5 days), bears have the edge; price sits above the pivot but below the moving averages, and a break below S1 (669.14) would open a test of 645.06. Medium term (1–4 weeks), the balance is even, with a 645–692 range; international gold strength underpins the lower bound while domestic outflows cap the upper bound. If international gold holds above USD 2,890, SHFE Gold could recover to 678–680; if international gold pulls back, SHFE Gold would test 669 or even 645.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Range trading (sell high, buy low), short-term. Entry: if price rebounds to around CNY 676.64 (R1) and stalls, try a light short with a stop-loss above CNY 680, targeting CNY 669.14 (S1), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 20%. If price falls to around CNY 669.14 and stabilizes, try a light long with a stop-loss below CNY 665, targeting CNY 676.64, horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 20%.
Strategy 2: Breakout following, medium-term. If price holds above CNY 678.73 (MA20), go long with the trend: entry at CNY 679, stop-loss at CNY 671, target CNY 691.76 (20-day high), horizon 1–4 weeks, position size no more than 30%. If price breaks below CNY 669.14 with a weak retest, go short with the trend: entry at CNY 668, stop-loss at CNY 676, target CNY 645.06 (20-day low), horizon 1–4 weeks, position size no more than 30%.
Risk management: ATR reference USD 42.85; domestic volatility is elevated, so per-trade stop-loss should not exceed 1.5% of the entry price. Keep total exposure within 50% to avoid overnight gap risk. If the international–domestic divergence widens, anchor direction to the overseas market and execute domestically. All strategies require dynamic tracking of open interest and COT changes; cut positions if outflows persist.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic economic calendar data for the next 7 days: N/A; no specific event table is available. Suggested focus: daily SHFE open interest and volume data, international gold GC=F trend, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, domestic gold ETF holdings changes, and central-bank gold-buying news. If major macro data or geopolitical events occur, assess the impact on SHFE Gold in real time. Data to be updated.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.