I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
SHFE Gold main continuous contract closed at CNY 678.38/g on March 4, 2025, up 1.1240% versus the previous trading day, with volume of 76,196 lots and open interest of 139,064 lots. Over the past five trading days, the market first weakened before recovering: it closed at CNY 679.42/g on February 26 (down 1.0947%), CNY 678.52/g on February 27 (down 0.3671%), CNY 673.48/g on February 28 (down 0.9617%), CNY 673.98/g on March 3 (down 0.3607%), before rebounding to close at CNY 678.38/g on March 4. The cumulative five-day change was approximately -0.15%, leaving the market in a consolidation range overall.
On the moving average system, MA5 stood at CNY 676.76/g and MA20 at CNY 680.27/g on March 4; the closing price of CNY 678.38/g sits above MA5 but below MA20, with the short-term MA flattening while the medium-term MA continues to cap upside. The 20-day high (H20) is CNY 691.76/g and the 20-day low (L20) is CNY 664.46/g, placing the current price in the upper-middle portion of the 20-day range. The pivot point (P) is CNY 677.72/g, first resistance (R1) is CNY 680.92/g, and first support (S1) is CNY 675.18/g. If the price holds firmly above R1, it may challenge CNY 691.76/g; if it breaks below S1, it could probe CNY 664.46/g.
For the international comparison, GC=F gold futures closed at USD 2,909.60/oz on March 4, up 0.67%, with a five-day change of 0.18 and a 20-day change of 2.67; pivot P at 2,907.87, R1 at 2,929.63, S1 at 2,887.83, and ATR at 41.88, indicating elevated volatility in international gold prices. On March 3, it closed at USD 2,890.20/oz, up 1.88%, with a five-day change of -1.96 and a 20-day change of 2.76. On February 28, it closed at USD 2,836.80/oz, down 1.61%, with a five-day change of -3.43 and a 20-day change of 0.49. After the late-February pullback, international gold rebounded consecutively in early March, approaching the USD 2,900/oz level once again.
On technical indicators, domestic data did not provide specific RSI or MACD values; data pending update. However, judging from the price-to-MA relationship, short-term momentum has been repaired, while the medium term remains constrained by MA20. The international ATR of approximately USD 41.88/oz implies correspondingly high domestic volatility; position management is essential for trading.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, data did not provide the latest US Treasury yields, US dollar index, or Fed official comments; data pending update. However, the 20-day gain of 2.67% in international gold suggests the market retains some sensitivity to rate expectations or USD moves. A weaker dollar typically supports gold prices, while a stronger dollar weighs on them.
On inflation expectations, data did not provide the latest CPI, PCE, or other indicators; data pending update. As an inflation-hedge asset, gold prices are closely tied to inflation expectations. If inflation data comes in above expectations, it may reinforce gold allocation demand; if inflation recedes, gold's appeal may diminish.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, data did not provide SHFE inventories, COMEX inventories, or central bank buying data; data pending update. Central bank gold purchases have been an important support for gold demand in recent years; continued accumulation would be a medium- to long-term positive for gold prices.
On ETF holdings, data did not provide changes in gold ETF holdings such as SPDR; data pending update. ETF flows are a key gauge of market sentiment: rising ETF holdings signal increasing institutional bullishness, while declines indicate outflows.
On geopolitics, data did not provide the latest geopolitical events; data pending update. Geopolitical risk typically triggers safe-haven demand; escalation may bring safe-haven buying support to gold, while de-escalation may see the safe-haven premium fade.
Domestically, the relevant domestic headline over the past 48 hours was N/A; data pending update. Domestic investor sentiment may be influenced by international gold prices and the RMB exchange rate. RMB depreciation tends to leave domestic gold prices relatively firm, while RMB appreciation may limit domestic gold upside.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
COT positioning (international comparison) shows non-commercial net longs continuing to decline over the past four weeks. For the week of September 15, 2026, total open interest (OI) was 409,999 lots, longs (L) 142,394 lots, shorts (S) 9,278 lots, and net longs (net) 133,116 lots, a weekly change (Δ) of -1,856 lots. For the week of September 8, net longs were 134,972 lots, Δ -1,799 lots. For the week of September 1, net longs were 136,771 lots, Δ -7,976 lots. For the week of August 25, net longs were 144,747 lots, Δ +3,099 lots. Net longs have fallen for three consecutive weeks, a cumulative decline of approximately 11,631 lots, indicating that international speculative crowding in gold has marginally eased and some longs have taken profits.
On domestic positioning, SHFE.AU open interest (OI) was 139,064 lots on March 4, up 4,194 lots from 134,870 lots on March 3 and up 605 lots from 138,459 lots on February 28. Volume was 76,196 lots, down from 111,016 lots on March 3, and also lower than the 91,848 lots on February 28. Rising open interest alongside a price rebound suggests some capital is buying on dips.
On options and volatility, data did not provide domestic option implied volatility or positioning distribution; data pending update. The international ATR of approximately USD 41.88/oz is at a high level, implying strong market expectations for volatility. If volatility continues to rise, option hedging costs will increase, potentially dampening some speculative demand.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the gold-silver ratio, data did not provide the latest silver price; gold-silver ratio data pending update. The gold-silver ratio is an important gauge of gold's valuation relative to silver; a historically high ratio may suggest silver is relatively undervalued, or gold relatively overvalued.
On the oil-gold ratio, data did not provide the latest crude oil price; oil-gold ratio data pending update. The oil-gold ratio can reflect inflation expectations and economic growth prospects; a declining ratio may suggest the market is placing greater weight on gold's safe-haven attributes.
On the copper-gold ratio, data did not provide the latest copper price; copper-gold ratio data pending update. The copper-gold ratio is typically viewed as an indicator of economic health; a weakening ratio may signal slowing growth, which is supportive for gold.
Given the missing cross-asset relative value data, current percentile levels cannot be calculated; investors are advised to watch for subsequent data updates. If relevant ratio data is released, historical percentiles can be used to assess gold's relative valuation.
V. Sentiment
On sentiment scores, data did not provide quantitative sentiment indicators; data pending update. The relevant domestic headline over the past 48 hours was N/A, so media bias cannot be assessed. Internationally, GC=F closed up 0.67% on March 4 and up 1.88% on March 3, rebounding for two consecutive sessions, which may improve short-term market sentiment. However, the three-week decline in COT net longs shows institutional sentiment turning more cautious.
Overall, market sentiment is mixed. If subsequent headlines turn optimistic, it may attract momentum buying; if negative reports emerge, it may intensify selling pressure. Investors are advised to closely monitor domestic financial media coverage of gold.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
Data did not provide same-period seasonal data for the past 10 years; historical statistics pending update. Generally, March gold prices are heavily influenced by FOMC meetings, inflation data, and geopolitical events. If historical data shows a higher probability of gold rising in March, the current rebound may extend; if the probability of decline is higher, pullback risk warrants caution.
Given the lack of specific statistics, no quantitative conclusion can be drawn. Investors are advised to refer to subsequent seasonal analysis updates.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors:
1. SHFE Gold rose 1.12% on March 4, reclaiming MA5 (676.76), with short-term momentum repaired.
2. International gold GC=F rebounded for two consecutive sessions, closing at USD 2,909.60/oz on March 4, with a 20-day gain of 2.67%, a bullish-leaning trend.
3. Domestic open interest (OI) rose to 139,064 lots, up 4,194 lots from the prior day, indicating capital inflows.
4. International ATR of approximately 41.88 implies elevated volatility; a break above key resistance may attract trend-following capital.
Bearish factors:
1. SHFE Gold's close of 678.38 remains below MA20 (680.27); the medium-term MA cap is intact.
2. COT non-commercial net longs have fallen for three consecutive weeks, down approximately 11,631 lots cumulatively, as speculative capital exits.
3. The 20-day high of 691.76 is strong resistance; failure to break it may form a double top.
4. Domestic volume of 76,196 lots is down from 111,016 lots on March 3, indicating insufficient rebound momentum.
Short- vs medium-term balance: In the short term (1–5 days), longs hold a slight edge as price stands above MA5 and international markets rebound; in the medium term (1–4 weeks), shorts remain dominant as MA20 is unbroken and COT net longs decline. If SHFE Gold effectively breaks above 680.92 (R1), short-term long strength increases; if it falls below 675.18 (S1), shorts may regain control.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Range-bound dip buying. If SHFE Gold pulls back to 675.18 (S1), consider a light long position; entry 675.18, stop-loss 664.46 (L20), target 680.92 (R1), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10%, conviction 6.
Strategy 2: Breakout long. If SHFE Gold effectively breaks above 680.92 (R1) and holds, consider a light chase-long; entry 680.92, stop-loss 675.18 (S1), target 691.76 (H20), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10%, conviction 7.
Risk management: strict stop-loss; single-trade loss not to exceed 2% of total capital. If price breaks below 664.46 (L20), suspend long entries. If price breaks above 691.76 (H20), trail the stop-loss upward. Note the international ATR is approximately 41.88, implying elevated volatility; position size reduction is advised.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A; data to be updated. Watch: Fed officials' speeches, US CPI/PPI releases, initial jobless claims, PBoC open market operations, and the RMB exchange rate. If released, these may trigger gold price volatility.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.