I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of March 4, 2025, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 76,940/t, down 0.1039% from the previous trading day, with an intraday volume of 58,841 lots and open interest of 161,390 lots. Over the past five trading days, prices have oscillated lower from CNY 77,130/t on February 26, a cumulative decline of about 0.25%, exhibiting an overall high-level consolidation pattern. From the moving average system, the latest MA5 is CNY 77,006/t and MA20 is CNY 77,073.5/t, with the close below both, and MA5 has slightly crossed below MA20, forming an early bearish moving-average crossover and indicating soft short-term momentum. However, the wide range defined by the 20-day high of CNY 78,580/t and the 20-day low of CNY 74,840/t remains intact, with the current price in the upper-middle part of the range and not yet below key support.
On technical indicators, as the data does not provide specific RSI, MACD, or ATR values, inference is based solely on price action. Prices have fluctuated in a narrow band for several consecutive days, with absolute daily changes all below 0.25%, suggesting volatility may be contracting and a directional choice is approaching. The pivot P is CNY 77,090/t, first resistance R1 is CNY 77,280/t, and first support S1 is CNY 76,750/t. If price effectively breaks above R1 and holds, the short-term weakness may be reversed; conversely, a break below S1 could lead to a further test of the February lows region. Internationally, HG=F closed at USD 4.5275/lb, down 1.07%, with pivot P at 4.5315, R1 at 4.5630, S1 at 4.4960, and ATR at 0.0807, indicating slightly higher volatility in international copper than domestic, and with the close below the pivot, short-term pressure is also present.
On the weekly chart, SHFE Copper has posted two consecutive small bearish candles after retreating from prior highs, but remains above the long-term moving average, leaving the medium- to long-term uptrend intact. On the monthly chart, February closed lower, though the decline was limited, with strong buying support near the 20-day low of CNY 74,840/t. Overall, copper is in a short-term soft consolidation, but medium-term support is solid, and should a macro or fundamental catalyst emerge, it retains the potential to resume its advance.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On the macro front, market expectations regarding the Fed’s rate path have recently fluctuated. Although the data does not provide the latest US inflation or employment figures, the international copper price’s 5-day gain of 0.93% and 20-day gain of 5.44% suggest that expectations of a soft landing and easing inflation remain dominant. The US dollar index is not reflected in the data, but it is typically negatively correlated with copper; if the dollar remains strong, upside for copper may be limited. Domestically, no significant monetary policy or fiscal stimulus measures have been announced recently, but the market harbors expectations for growth-stabilizing policies during the Two Sessions, providing some support to the copper demand outlook.
On inventories and supply-demand, the data does not provide specific values for LME, SHFE, or bonded-zone copper stocks, so no quantitative analysis of inventory changes is possible. However, given the international copper price’s gain of over 5% in 20 days, it can be inferred that global visible inventories may be low, or that the market is concerned about supply disruptions. In addition, COT positioning data show that although non-commercial net longs declined from the prior week, the absolute level remains as high as 65,106 lots, indicating that speculative bullish sentiment toward copper has not reversed. Geopolitically, there have been no major sudden events affecting the copper supply chain recently, but global trade frictions and resource nationalism risks remain uncertainties.
ETF holdings and central-bank gold purchases were not provided in this dataset, so their impact on copper prices cannot be assessed. It should be noted, however, that as an industrial metal, copper’s financial attributes are weaker than precious metals, so changes in ETF holdings have a relatively limited direct impact on price. Overall, fundamental drivers are mixed: macro expectations are warm but lack a strong catalyst, the tight supply-demand balance remains unchanged, but the absence of short-term inventory and spot premium/discount data limits further judgment.
III. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows
According to the COT report (international benchmark), in the latest period (2026-09-15), non-commercial total open interest was 289,463 lots, with longs of 83,704 lots, shorts of 18,598 lots, and net longs of 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior week. This marks the first significant decline in net longs in four weeks; the prior week (2026-09-08) saw net longs of 82,154 lots, up 9,272 lots week-on-week. The decline in net longs stems mainly from long liquidation and short building, indicating that some speculative funds chose to take profits or increase hedges at elevated copper prices.
From a crowding perspective, net longs account for about 22.5% of total open interest, down from 27.6% the prior week, suggesting that long crowding has eased marginally but remains elevated overall. If net longs continue to decline, it could trigger further price correction; conversely, if net longs stabilize and recover, prices may find support. Options and volatility data were not provided, so the market’s pricing of future volatility cannot be assessed. However, HG=F’s ATR of 0.0807 is at a moderate recent level, implying that short-term volatility may remain mild.
On domestic positioning, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract’s open interest was 161,390 lots, up slightly by 211 lots from the prior day, while volume was 58,841 lots, down 9,713 lots, showing a consolidation with shrinking volume. The volume-open interest alignment indicates a strong wait-and-see sentiment and a lack of clear directional drivers. If open interest rises significantly alongside a price breakout, it may confirm the start of a trend.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value Analysis
This dataset does not provide cross-asset prices such as gold, silver, or crude oil, so the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, and copper-gold ratio cannot be calculated directly. However, based on the international copper price’s 5.44% gain over the past 20 days, it can be inferred that the copper-gold ratio may have recovered, reflecting improved expectations for industrial demand. Yet, without concurrent gold prices, this inference cannot be verified.
From a historical percentile perspective, the copper-gold ratio is often viewed as a leading indicator of global economic health. If the ratio is at a historical low, it suggests that concerns over economic growth may be overpriced, and copper has room to recover relative to gold; conversely, if the ratio is elevated, caution is warranted regarding overheating or copper overvaluation. Due to missing data this time, no specific percentile level can be given, and investors are advised to monitor subsequent data updates.
On cross-market spreads, the SHFE–COMEX copper spread is not directly shown in the data, but can be indirectly observed through the difference in onshore and offshore moves. On March 4, SHFE Copper dipped slightly by 0.10%, while HG=F fell 1.07%, showing divergence between onshore and offshore markets, with SHFE Copper relatively resilient. If this divergence persists, it may attract cross-market arbitrage flows, providing some support to SHFE Copper. However, exchange-rate fluctuations and tariff policies may affect the actual spread relationship.
V. Sentiment & Public Opinion Monitoring
This dataset does not provide a sentiment score, and domestic relevant headlines over the past 48 hours are N/A, so market sentiment cannot be quantified. However, from price action, SHFE Copper has consolidated in a narrow range for several consecutive days with gradually shrinking volume, indicating that market sentiment is turning cautious, with neither bulls nor bears holding overwhelming conviction. Internationally, HG=F’s chPos indicator stands at 45.50%, down sharply from 62.50% the prior day, possibly reflecting a cooling of short-term bullish sentiment.
On public opinion, the lack of specific headlines makes it impossible to judge recent media tone. Typically, when copper prices consolidate at high levels, market focus centers on macro policy signals, inventory changes, and major copper mine developments. Should supply disruptions or stronger-than-expected demand news emerge, market sentiment could ignite quickly. Investors are advised to closely monitor the news flow over the next 48 hours.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
This dataset does not provide seasonal historical statistics or year-over-year price performance for the past 10 years, so quantitative analysis is not possible. However, general experience suggests that March is typically the start of the copper consumption peak season, and a recovery in downstream operating rates may support prices. This year, however, the pace of post–Chinese New Year resumption of work and order flows remains unclear, and whether seasonal patterns will materialize is uncertain.
From a historical volatility perspective, copper prices often exhibit increased volatility in March as the market begins to assess the full-year supply-demand balance and macro policy direction. If March prices hold above the 20-day low of CNY 74,840/t, the seasonal strength pattern may reappear; conversely, a break below that support would raise the risk of a weak peak season. Due to the lack of specific historical data, this section is for reference only, and investors are advised to consult relevant statistics themselves.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors: 1) International copper prices have risen 5.44% over 20 days, with the medium-term uptrend intact, exerting positive pull on SHFE Copper; 2) Although COT net longs have declined, the absolute level remains high, indicating speculative capital has not exited en masse; 3) SHFE Copper's closing price remains above the 20-day low of CNY 74,840/t, where strong support is present; 4) The market anticipates domestic growth-stabilizing policies; if the Two Sessions deliver positive news, copper demand expectations may be lifted.
Bearish factors: 1) SHFE Copper's closing price is below both MA5 and MA20, with a short-term moving-average death cross emerging, turning the technicals bearish; 2) The international contract HG=F fell 1.07% and closed below the pivot P, suggesting overseas weakness may drag the domestic market; 3) COT net longs fell by 17,048 lots week-over-week, easing long crowding but revealing capital outflow pressure; 4) Domestic trading volume has contracted, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and a lack of upward momentum.
Short- vs medium-term balance: In the short term (1–5 days), bears hold a slight edge due to technical weakness and the overseas pullback; in the medium term (1–3 months), bulls remain in control on expectations of a tight supply-demand balance and potential policy tailwinds. If the price holds the CNY 76,750/t support, it may stabilize in the near term; if broken, it could test CNY 74,840/t.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Buy on dips within the range. If SHFE Copper retraces to around CNY 76,750/t (S1 support) and shows signs of stabilization, initiate a light long position, with a stop-loss below CNY 76,500/t and targets at CNY 77,280/t (R1 resistance) and CNY 77,500/t. Time horizon: 1–5 trading days; position size recommended at no more than 10% of total capital.
Strategy 2: Breakout long. If SHFE Copper effectively breaks above CNY 77,280/t (R1) with rising volume, go long in line with the trend, with a stop-loss below CNY 77,000/t and a target at CNY 78,580/t (20-day high). Time horizon: 1–2 weeks; position size recommended at no more than 15%.
Risk management: Set strict stop-losses to avoid a single loss exceeding 2% of total capital. Monitor onshore-offshore linkage; if HG=F breaks below 4.4960 (S1), be alert to catch-down risk in SHFE Copper. Also keep a close watch on macro policy and inventory data to adjust positions in a timely manner.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is pending update. Potential events to watch: China February CPI/PPI data, U.S. non-farm payrolls report, Fed officials' speeches, and LME copper inventory changes. Specific dates and times await official release.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.