I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-03-04, SHFE Silver main continuous contract closed at CNY 7,956.00/kg, up 1.0157% on the day, marking the largest single-day gain in the past 5 trading sessions. Daily turnover was 172,136 lots, open interest stood at 288,953 lots, with pivot P=7,958.00, R1=7,992.00, and S1=7,922.00. On the moving-average structure, MA5=7,907.20 and MA20=8,030.05; the close was about CNY 48.8 above MA5 but about CNY 74.05 below MA20, with the short-term MA still below the mid-term MA, indicating the medium-term structure has not yet been repaired. The 20-day high was 8,286.00 and the 20-day low was 7,822.00; the current price sits in the lower-middle portion of the 20-day range, about -4.0% from the high and about +1.7% from the low.
Looking at the 5-day sequence: 26 Feb closed at 7,904.00 (-1.5814%), 27 Feb at 7,900.00 (-0.3280%), 28 Feb at 7,869.00 (-0.5560%), 3 Mar at 7,907.00 (+0.0253%), and 4 Mar at 7,956.00 (+1.0157%), showing a “probe down — stabilization — rebound” rhythm. The 28 Feb print of 7,869.00 marks the stage low, and the 4 Mar close is already CNY 87 above that low. On turnover, 26 Feb saw 783,725 lots and 27 Feb 534,895 lots, a notable volume expansion, followed by a contraction to 188,556 lots on 3 Mar and 172,136 lots on 4 Mar; declining volume on the rebound points to an open-interest-cut repair rather than incremental-flow driven. Open interest rose from 259,346 lots on 27 Feb to 292,297 lots on 3 Mar, then fell back to 288,953 lots on 4 Mar, a single-day open interest cut of 3,344 lots, suggesting limited appetite from longs to chase higher.
On technical indicators, the dataset does not directly provide RSI, MACD, or ATR on a domestic basis; those readings are pending update. For reference, the international contract SI=F shows ATR=0.6661 USD/oz, in the higher end of the 5-day range (26 Feb 0.5871, 27 Feb 0.6119, 28 Feb 0.6181, 3 Mar 0.6830, 4 Mar 0.6661), indicating elevated volatility. Key levels: first resistance R1=7,992.00, second resistance MA20=8,030.05, third resistance the 20-day high 8,286.00; first support S1=7,922.00, second support MA5=7,907.20, third support the 20-day low 7,822.00. A close holding above 7,992.00 would open a test of 8,030.05; a break below 7,907.20 would raise the probability of a retest of 7,822.00. Weekly and monthly data are pending update; for now, the daily structure takes precedence.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, this data package does not provide US Treasury yields, the dollar index, or real rates; related analysis data is pending update. From the available international comparison, SI=F closed at 32.1080 USD/oz on 4 Mar, up 0.24%, with a 5-day change of +0.97 and a 20-day change of -0.88, showing a modest recovery over the past week but still weakness over the past month; the macro pricing direction remains unclear.
On inflation expectations, the data does not provide TIPS breakeven inflation rates or CPI components; data is pending update. As silver carries both precious-metal and industrial-metal attributes, its inflation sensitivity is typically higher than gold's; if upcoming inflation data surprises to the upside, silver price elasticity could be amplified, whereas if inflation eases, industrial demand expectations and safe-haven demand may offset each other.
On inventories and central-bank gold purchases, this dataset does not include SHFE silver inventories, COMEX silver inventories, LBMA inventories, or central-bank buying data; data is pending update. It should be noted that central-bank purchases usually affect gold directly, with transmission to silver occurring more indirectly through the gold-silver ratio and precious-metals sector sentiment; hence this factor's marginal impact on SHFE Silver is weaker than on gold.
On ETFs and investment demand, the data does not provide changes in silver ETF holdings such as SLV; data is pending update. On geopolitics, the package contains no domestic headlines from the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER shows N/A) and no detail on international geopolitical events; sentiment and geopolitical drivers are pending update. Overall, the currently verifiable fundamental drivers mainly come from international price stabilization and changes in domestic positioning; the evidence chain for macro and inventory links is incomplete, so overextrapolation from any single factor is not warranted.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Silver main continuous open interest stood at 288,953 lots on 4 Mar, down 3,344 lots from 292,297 lots on 3 Mar, but still 29,607 lots above 259,346 lots on 27 Feb, indicating incremental capital inflow since late February, with some positions choosing to cut on the 4 Mar rebound. Turnover fell from 783,725 lots on 26 Feb to 172,136 lots on 4 Mar; the price-volume pattern shows a “volume-shrinking rebound,” with marginal weakening of capital momentum.
On COT positioning (international comparison), the latest available reading is net long 13,124 lots, down 1,262 lots from the prior week's net long 14,386 lots; total open interest 103,745 lots, longs 20,205 lots, shorts 7,081 lots. Tracing the past 4 weeks: net longs fell from 14,073 lots (as of 25 Aug) to 12,598 lots, recovered to 14,386 lots, then declined to 13,124 lots, oscillating within a 12,598–14,386 lot band, with weekly changes of +2,378, -1,475, +1,888, and -1,262 lots respectively; neither side shows persistent one-way accumulation. Note that the COT date is labeled 2026, a basis mismatch with the report date 2025-03-04; it should be treated as the “most recent available sample,” with timeliness pending update.
Crowding assessment: with longs at 20,205 lots versus shorts at 7,081 lots, the long-short ratio is about 2.85:1, and net longs account for about 12.65% of total open interest, in the neutral-to-high zone, not yet at extreme crowding. On options and volatility, the data does not provide SHFE silver option implied volatility, skew, or positioning distribution; data is pending update. The international ATR rose from 0.5871 on 26 Feb to 0.6661 on 4 Mar, serving as indirect evidence of rising volatility. If net longs continue to decline while prices weaken in tandem, watch for negative feedback from long liquidation.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the gold-silver ratio, the data does not provide gold prices (SHFE.AU or COMEX gold), so the ratio and its historical percentile cannot be computed; data is pending update. The gold-silver ratio is a key anchor for assessing silver's relative valuation: a historically high ratio implies silver is undervalued versus gold, and vice versa; with no gold reading currently available, no directional judgment is made for now.
On the oil-gold ratio, the data does not provide crude oil prices; the ratio and its percentile are pending update. The oil-gold ratio typically reflects inflation and growth expectations and is informative for pricing silver's industrial attribute, but it cannot be quantified in this dataset.
On the copper-gold ratio, the data does not provide copper prices; the ratio and its percentile are pending update. Copper and silver share some commonality on the industrial demand side; a weakening copper-gold ratio often corresponds to softer growth expectations and may weigh on silver's industrial premium, but this chain currently lacks data support.
The only usable cross-market comparison is the SHFE silver versus international silver spread: SHFE Silver main contract closed at CNY 7,956.00/kg, SI=F closed at 32.1080 USD/oz; using the rough conversion of 1 kg ≈ 32.1507 troy oz, the international price corresponds to about USD 1,032.3/kg. With the RMB central parity rate not provided in the dataset, the specific onshore-offshore spread value and percentile are pending update. Overall, the evidence chain in this cross-asset section is incomplete; percentile regression and arbitrage assessment should wait until the data is filled in.
V. Sentiment
On sentiment scores, the data does not provide a quantitative sentiment indicator; the sentiment score is pending update. Domestic headlines from the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER) returned N/A, with no usable headline-tendency statistics; sentiment direction is pending update.
Indirectly observable sentiment proxies: first, SHFE Silver rose 1.0157% on 4 Mar while open interest fell 3,344 lots; a rebound on falling open interest typically reflects both short covering and long profit-taking, pointing to a cautious repair in sentiment. Second, international SI=F chPos=34.20% on 4 Mar, up from 31.60% on 3 Mar and significantly recovered from 4.50% on 28 Feb, showing a recovery in international long positioning share. Third, ATR rose from 0.6181 on 28 Feb to 0.6661 on 4 Mar; rising volatility often accompanies wider sentiment divergence. Taken together, sentiment is currently in a “low-level repair but unconfirmed” state; if a volume-expanding, open-interest-building rally emerges, sentiment could turn positive, whereas a volume-shrinking pullback could see sentiment weaken again.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
Seasonal dimension: this dataset does not provide SHFE Silver's same-period (early March) return distribution, probability of gain, or volatility statistics over the past 10 years; historical statistical data are pending update. March typically falls in the window between post-Lunar New Year resumption of work and the FOMC meeting, with industrial demand expectations intertwined with macro expectations, but lacking support from this data package, no quantitative conclusion is drawn.
Regarding 10-year same-period patterns, data are pending update. An alternative observation available is the 5-day series itself: from February 26 to March 4, SHFE Silver closed at 7,904.00, 7,900.00, 7,869.00, 7,907.00, and 7,956.00, a cumulative gain of about CNY 52 over 5 days, with an amplitude range of 7,822.00–8,286.00 (20-day basis), indicating a relatively wide short-term trading band. If historical same-period volatility is consistent with the current ATR uptick, range trading would be preferable to trend chasing; however, this inference requires historical data validation and is currently flagged as pending update.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments: first, the March 4 close of 7,956.00 is above MA5 = 7,907.20, so short-term moving average support holds; second, the close is near the pivot P = 7,958.00 and above S1 = 7,922.00, leaving the near-term structure biased firm; third, the international contract SI=F rose 0.24% on March 4 with a 5-day change of +0.97, and the stabilization overseas exerts positive pull on the domestic market; fourth, the international chPos rose from 4.50% on February 28 to 34.20% on March 4, indicating a rebound in the share of long positions; fifth, the 20-day low of 7,822.00 was not breached, with early signs of a rising bottom.
Bearish arguments: first, the close of 7,956.00 remains below MA20 = 8,030.05, so medium-term moving average resistance is unresolved; second, there is still about 4.0% of room to the 20-day high of 8,286.00, so the rebound is an oversold repair rather than a trend reversal; third, open interest fell by 3,344 lots on March 4, casting doubt on the durability of a volume-shrinking, open-interest-cutting rebound; fourth, the COT net long of 13,124 lots is down 1,262 lots from the prior reading, showing waning international long momentum; fifth, the ATR uptick signals rising volatility and higher stop-loss costs, which is unfavorable for holding trend positions.
Near- to medium-term balance of forces: short term (1–5 days), long and short forces are roughly balanced with a slight bullish tilt, as price holds above MA5 and S1, but insufficient volume limits the upside slope; medium term (1–4 weeks), the bears still hold the edge, as price sits below MA20 and the 20-day high of 8,286.00 forms distant resistance. A volume-backed firm hold above 8,030.05 would tilt the medium-term balance bullish; a break below 7,907.20 with a loss of 7,822.00 would extend the medium-term weakness.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range dip-buying, LONG): entry reference is the 7,907.20 (MA5) to 7,922.00 (S1) band; if the pullback holds without breaking, a light position may be initiated, with a stop-loss placed below 7,822.00 (20-day low) and targets at 7,992.00 (R1) to 8,030.05 (MA20), a horizon of 1–5 trading days, position size recommended at no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 6. If price breaks directly below 7,822.00, the strategy is invalidated and positions should be exited to the sidelines.
Strategy 2 (rebound selling, SHORT): if price rises into the 7,992.00 (R1) to 8,030.05 (MA20) band and stalls without volume expansion, a light short trial is permissible, with a stop-loss above 8,030.05 and targets back at 7,922.00 (S1) to 7,907.20 (MA5), a horizon of 1–5 trading days, position size recommended at no more than 8% of total capital, conviction 5. If price breaks above 8,030.05 on volume and holds firm, short positions should be stopped out.
Risk management key points: first, the ATR uptick (international 0.6661) implies wider intraday swings, so stop-loss width should be widened accordingly to avoid being shaken out by noise; second, against a backdrop of falling open interest, chasing rallies with heavy positions is inadvisable; third, the two strategies are mutually exclusive and must be executed separately, avoiding same-direction stacking; fourth, all levels are confirmed on closing prices, and intraday false breakouts do not constitute entry triggers.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days returned N/A; the specific event table data are pending update. Watch windows that may be flagged include: weekly updates of domestic silver inventories and positioning, the weekly release of international COT positioning, and the regular release cadence of macro interest-rate and US dollar data. Specific dates and consensus expectations for these events will be updated once the data are filled in.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.