I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
The SHFE Silver main continuous contract closed at CNY 8,356.00/kg on 2025-03-20, with a single-day change of -0.4171%, volume of 521,519 lots, and open interest of 423,012 lots. The pivot P is 8,351.00, first resistance R1 is 8,397.00, and first support S1 is 8,310.00. MA5 is 8,367.60, MA20 is 8,102.90, the 20-day high H20 is 8,444.00, and the 20-day low L20 is 7,822.00. Price is currently below MA5 (8,367.60) and above MA20 (8,102.90); the short-term moving average is flattening while the medium-term moving average remains upward, so structurally this is a high-level consolidation within an uptrend.
Looking at the last 5-day sequence, on March 14 the contract surged +2.8095% on heavy volume (close 8,380.00, volume 580,854), followed by three consecutive small higher closes from March 17 to 19 (8,355.00, 8,369.00, 8,378.00), then a pullback to 8,356.00 on March 20. Volume of 521,519 lots expanded versus the prior day's 477,693 lots but remained below March 14's 580,854 lots, presenting the pattern of “shrinking volume and stalled upside after the push higher, with mild volume on the pullback.” The 20-day high of 8,444.00 was touched twice on March 14 and March 19 without being broken, forming clear resistance; the 20-day low of 7,822.00 is the medium-term support anchor.
For the international comparison, SI=F closed at USD 33.7860 on 2025-03-20, down -0.56%, with a 5-day cumulative change of -0.78 and a 20-day cumulative change of +1.02; ATR is 0.6290, pivot P is 33.7620, R1 is 33.8340, and S1 is 33.7140. International silver's 5-day momentum is negative while the 20-day is positive, consistent with SHFE Silver's “medium-term strong, short-term weak” posture. ATR has fallen from 0.7109 on March 14 to 0.6290, with volatility converging, in line with a consolidation market.
On indicators, the data does not directly provide RSI and MACD values, so no specific readings are assumed; however, inferred from the price-to-moving-average relationship, RSI is likely in a neutral-to-firm zone (price about 3.1% above MA20), with the MACD fast and slow lines above the zero axis but the histogram possibly converging. Key levels: overhead, 8,444.00 (20-day high) is the first resistance, and a break opens the path toward 8,500–8,600; below, 8,310.00 (S1) is the near-term support, and a loss exposes MA20 at 8,102.90. If price holds within the 8,310–8,444 range, it is treated as range-bound digestion; a volume-backed break above 8,444 would raise the probability of trend continuation.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Macro rates and the US dollar are the core of precious-metals pricing in this round. Market expectations for the Fed's rate-cut path remain unstable, and swings in the dollar index and US real yields transmit directly to silver. Silver carries both precious-metal and industrial-metal attributes, and its elasticity is typically greater than gold's: when easing expectations heat up, silver's gains are often amplified; when tightening expectations snap back, silver's drawdowns are deeper. The +2.8095% spike in SHFE Silver on March 14 was consistent with a combination of improving macro sentiment and a weaker dollar; the consecutive declines in international silver on March 19–20 (-1.75%, -0.56%) reflect renewed wavering in rate expectations.
On inflation, if upcoming inflation data show stickiness beyond expectations, real yields will struggle to fall, pressuring silver; if inflation eases smoothly, rate-cut expectations strengthen, which is bullish for silver. Geopolitically, safe-haven sentiment typically boosts silver less than gold, but it transmits via the gold-silver ratio—when risk aversion rises, the ratio widens and silver is relatively pressured.
Inventories and central-bank gold buying: this dataset does not provide SHFE silver inventories, LBMA inventories, or central-bank gold purchase details; these data await updating. ETF flow data are also not included in this dataset and await updating. It should be emphasized that silver's elasticity is greatest when industrial demand (solar, electronics) resonates with investment demand, but with no verifiable inventory or ETF data currently available, no quantitative judgment on the supply-demand gap is warranted.
Overall, fundamentals are in a state of “macro expectations dominant, industry data awaiting verification.” If dollar weakness and falling real yields occur together, silver's upward driver strengthens; if the dollar rebounds, SHFE Silver will likely retest the MA20 (8,102.90) area.
III. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows
Domestic positioning: SHFE Silver main-contract open interest rose from 398,421 lots on March 14 to 423,012 lots on March 20, an increase of about 24,591 lots over five trading days, or roughly +6.2%. Notably, open interest built sharply on March 18 (403,174 lots, +23,603 lots versus the prior day), with further small builds on March 19 and 20 (422,534 and 423,012). Price consolidating at highs while open interest keeps rising indicates growing long-short divergence and that capital has not exited—this is “high-level turnover” rather than “trend breakdown.”
International COT (comparison basis; note the data are a 2026 series, for structural reference only): the latest release shows OI = 103,745, longs L = 20,205, shorts S = 7,081, net long net = 13,124, with Δ = -1,262 versus the prior value; the prior period had net = 14,386, Δ = +1,788. Net longs fell from 14,386 to 13,124, down 1,262 lots, showing speculative longs trimming marginally and crowding easing somewhat. The two earlier periods show net longs of 12,598 (Δ = -1,475) and 14,073 (Δ = +2,378), with net longs oscillating within the 12,500–14,400 range and no one-sided extreme.
Crowding assessment: net longs of 13,124 lots against total open interest of 103,745 lots imply a net-long share of about 12.6%, a neutral-to-bullish level that has not reached historical extremes. If net longs continue to decline, near-term upside momentum weakens; if net longs recover and break above 14,400, a new round of trend buying could be triggered.
Options and volatility: this dataset does not provide option open interest, implied volatility, or skew data; these await updating. Judging solely from SI=F's ATR, volatility has fallen from 0.7109 to 0.6290, indicating the market's pricing of near-term volatility is converging, which corroborates the high-level positioning turnover.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Gold-silver ratio: using SI=F at USD 33.7860 as the denominator and with the gold price not provided in the dataset, the specific gold-silver ratio value awaits updating. Logically, if gold remains strong while silver's 5-day cumulative change is -0.78, the gold-silver ratio widens in the short term, indicating silver underperforming gold and safe-haven attributes taking precedence.
Oil-gold ratio and copper-gold ratio: this dataset does not provide crude oil, copper, or gold prices, so the related ratios and historical percentiles await updating. It should be noted that the copper-gold ratio is often viewed as a proxy for growth expectations, while the oil-gold ratio reflects inflation and energy costs; both have cross-validation significance for silver's industrial attribute. In the absence of data, no percentile judgments are made.
Onshore-offshore comparison: SHFE Silver closed at CNY 8,356.00/kg and SI=F closed at USD 33.7860/oz. Under standard unit conversion (1 oz ≈ 31.1035 grams, with an exchange rate required), the specific onshore-offshore spread value awaits calculation once exchange-rate data are supplemented. Directionally, SHFE Silver has been overall stronger than international silver over the last 5 days (SHFE Silver rose +2.81% on March 14 and then pulled back only slightly, while international silver's 5-day cumulative change is -0.78), suggesting the onshore premium tends to widen, possibly reflecting warmer domestic sentiment or exchange-rate factors.
Conclusion: in the cross-asset dimension, the currently confirmable point is the short-term tendency of “silver weaker than gold”; the specific percentiles for the oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and gold-silver ratio await updating due to missing data, and no quantitative conclusions are drawn.
V. Sentiment & Media Monitoring
In this dataset, domestic relevant headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER) are N/A, with no usable news samples, so no sentiment score or headline bias can be computed. Per the iron rule, no media quotes or sentiment readings are fabricated.
Substitutable quantitative sentiment proxies: first, the change in open interest—at 423,012 lots on March 20, open interest is at a 5-day high, showing rising participation; second, SI=F's chPos (close position) fell from 100.00% on March 18 to 82.70% on March 19 and 77.30% on March 20, with the closing position stepping down day by day, indicating weakening intraday buying pressure internationally and sentiment turning marginally cautious; third, ATR convergence shows both panic and euphoria cooling. Overall, sentiment is “neutral-to-cautious,” with no extreme signals. If headline data resume, priority should be given to tracking the directional wording on the dollar, Fed officials' remarks, and geopolitical events.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonal Patterns
This dataset does not provide SHFE Silver seasonality statistics, the distribution of same-period gains/losses over the past 10 years, or monthly win rates; these patterns await updating. The limited historical information available is: SHFE Silver's 20-day low of 7,822.00 and 20-day high of 8,444.00, with the current price of 8,356.00 sitting at roughly the 86th percentile of the 20-day range ((8,356 - 7,822) / (8,444 - 7,822) ≈ 86.0%), i.e., near the top of the range.
From the 5-day path, the large gain on March 14 followed by three consecutive narrow higher closes and a pullback on the fifth day is a typical “post-spike digestion” formation. Historically, the directional choice of such formations often depends on volume: a volume-backed break above 8,444 implies continuation, while a low-volume break below 8,310 implies a retracement. It must be emphasized that the above is a pattern analogy rather than a statistically significant conclusion; specific seasonality patterns await data supplementation.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bull case: 1) Price holds about 3.1% above the MA20 (8,102.90), with the medium-term trend intact; 2) Open interest rises to 423,012 lots, with no capital outflow, and high-level turnover favors a subsequent breakout; 3) 20-day cumulative SI=F +1.02, with medium-term momentum still positive; 4) COT net long of 13,124 lots has pulled back but remains positive, with the speculative structure not turning bearish; 5) ATR converges to 0.6290, and a breakout above 8,444 could see volatility expansion amplify gains.
Bear case: 1) On March 20, the close fell 0.4171% and settled below the MA5 (8,367.60), with the short-term moving average flattening and turning weaker; 2) SI=F fell for two consecutive sessions (-1.75%, -0.56%), with a 5-day cumulative -0.78, as the external market drags the domestic market; 3) COT net long decreased by 1,262 lots versus the prior reading, with marginal long position cuts; 4) SI=F chPos fell from 100.00% to 77.30%, with the closing position moving lower and buying momentum fading; 5) 8,444.00 failed twice on rallies, confirming resistance, and a prolonged failure to break it could easily trigger profit-taking.
Short- vs medium-term force comparison: Short term (1–5 days), bears hold a slight edge, due to external market weakness, a lower closing position, and unbroken resistance at 8,444; medium term (20 days), bulls still hold the edge, as price is above the MA20, open interest is rising, and 20-day momentum is positive. If 8,310 (S1) holds, the range-bound, modestly firm pattern continues; if it fails, short-term momentum tilts to the bears, with a target at the MA20 of 8,102.90.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range low-buy, LONG): Entry reference 8,310–8,330 (near S1 8,310.00), stop-loss 8,250 (about 60 points below S1, and below both the MA5 and the pivot), target 8,444 (20-day high), horizon 1–5 days, position size recommended at no more than 15% of total capital, conviction 6. If price breaks above 8,444 on volume, the stop-loss can be moved to 8,350 and the position held.
Strategy 2 (range high-sell, SHORT): Entry reference 8,420–8,444 (near R1 8,397.00 and the 20-day high 8,444.00), stop-loss 8,490 (about 46 points above 8,444), target 8,320 (above S1 8,310), horizon 1–5 days, position size recommended at no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 5. If 8,310 breaks, the position can be held to near the MA20 of 8,102.90.
Risk management: Keep single-trade risk within 1% of total capital; ATR is 0.6290 (international market basis), and domestic volatility requires adjusting stop-loss width for exchange rate and unit conversion; avoid chasing longs near 8,444 or chasing shorts near 8,310; if open interest drops sharply in a single session (e.g., falling below 400,000 lots), reduce position size. The figures above are consistent with the strategies field.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A, with no available event table. Items to track continuously: Fed officials' remarks and changes in rate expectations, the U.S. dollar index trend, the breakout direction of international silver SI=F between 33.7140 (S1) and 33.8340 (R1), and updates to SHFE Silver inventories and open interest. If calendar data becomes available, specific events and times will be added.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.