I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the close on 2025-03-20, SHFE Gold main continuous contract settled at CNY 710.50/g, up 0.5377% on the day, with turnover of 176,779 lots and open interest of 204,027 lots. Over the past five trading sessions, a textbook long-side advancement structure has formed: close of CNY 696.70/g on 2025-03-14 (+1.7972%), close of CNY 697.64/g on 03-17 (+0.4897%), close of CNY 702.38/g on 03-18 (+0.7979%), close of CNY 709.18/g on 03-19 (+1.3578%), and close of CNY 710.50/g on 03-20 (+0.5377%). Over the five sessions, the price has risen cumulatively from CNY 696.70/g to CNY 710.50/g, a gain of approximately 1.98%, with each daily close higher than the prior session, forming a consecutive bullish candle sequence.
On the moving average system, the MA5 on 2025-03-20 stands at 703.28 and the MA20 at 686.66; the close of 710.50 sits above both averages, and the MA5 is notably above the MA20, with short-term MAs in a bullish alignment and diverging upward, leaving the medium-term trend structure intact. Under the pivot framework, the daily pivot P is 709.20, first resistance R1 is 713.40, and first support S1 is 706.30; the close of 710.50 lies above P and below R1, placing it in the moderately firm zone above the pivot. The 20-day high H20 is 712.10 and the 20-day low L20 is 666.96; the current price is only about CNY 1.60/g from the 20-day high and about CNY 43.54/g from the 20-day low, sitting at the upper edge of the range.
On momentum indicators, this data segment does not provide specific RSI, MACD, or ATR readings for SHFE Gold; the relevant figures are pending update. For a volatility magnitude reference, one may look to the international contract GC=F, whose ATR is approximately USD 30.40/oz. Inferring from price behavior, five consecutive bullish closes with rising daily centers of gravity point to strong short-horizon momentum, but with price pressing against the 20-day high and R1 (713.40), a technical pullback is likely if the 713.40–712.10 resistance band is not decisively cleared; a breakout on expanding volume would open upside room. Key levels, in order: overhead resistance at 713.40 (R1) and 712.10 (20-day high); supports at 706.30 (S1), 703.28 (MA5), and 686.66 (MA20).
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, this data segment provides no specific readings for the dollar index or Treasury yields; the relevant data are pending update. However, the international contract GC=F offers a side observation: it closed at USD 3,040.00/oz on 2025-03-20, up 0.14% on the day, with a 5-day gain of 1.87% and a 20-day gain of 3.40%, indicating that international gold is in a medium-term uptrend; the 20-day gain exceeding the 5-day gain suggests the advance is not a mere short-term spike but has some persistence. Should the dollar and US real yields remain soft, that would support gold prices; a rebound in real yields could cap the upside slope.
On inflation and policy expectations, the data segment provides no latest CPI, PCE, or Fed dot plot figures; the specific numbers are pending update. It should be noted that gold's sensitivity to the policy path is mainly reflected in real rate expectations; absent the latest inflation readings, no firm judgment on the pace of rate cuts is warranted, and a scenario framework of “bullish if inflation eases, bearish if inflation proves stickier than expected” is appropriate.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, this data segment provides no SHFE inventories, COMEX inventories, or monthly central bank buying data; the relevant figures are pending update. ETF flow data are likewise missing and pending update. On geopolitics, the data segment provides no domestic headlines from the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=GOLD returned N/A), so no attribution to sentiment events is possible, and the impact of related news flow is pending update.
Taken together, the currently verifiable fundamental anchors come mainly from international price strength: GC=F's 20-day gain of 3.40% and chPos of 95.00% indicate international gold is trading in a high range, providing external cross-market support for SHFE Gold; however, domestic fundamental incremental information (inventories, ETF, central banks, geopolitics) is all missing in this issue, so confidence in the fundamental assessment is lower than in the technical picture.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Gold main continuous open interest (OI) rose steadily from 190,429 lots on 2025-03-14 to 196,546 lots on 03-17, 203,341 lots on 03-18, 203,691 lots on 03-19, and 204,027 lots on 03-20, a cumulative increase of about 3,598 lots over five sessions, while price rose from CNY 696.70/g to CNY 710.50/g, a pattern of rising prices on rising open interest, indicating incremental capital participation in the advance rather than mere short covering. On turnover, 03-20 volume of 176,779 lots exceeded the 111,207 lots on 03-17 but fell short of the levels above 160,302 lots on 03-14 and 162,851 lots on 03-19; volume has not made a fresh high in tandem, so whether price-volume confirmation persists warrants monitoring.
On international COT positioning (international comparison), the latest four weeks of data show: 2026-08-25 OI=427,957, longs L=159,819, shorts S=15,072, net long net=144,747, Δ=+3,099; 2026-09-01 OI=415,196, L=149,721, S=12,950, net=136,771, Δ=-7,976; 2026-09-08 OI=411,227, L=145,804, S=10,832, net=134,972, Δ=-1,799; 2026-09-15 OI=409,899, L=142,394, S=9,278, net=133,116, Δ=-1,856. Total open interest has fallen from 427,957 to 409,899, and net longs have declined consecutively from 144,747 to 133,116, a cumulative reduction of about 11,631, with long liquidation outpacing short covering, signaling that international long crowding is cooling at the margin. Note that these COT dates fall in 2026 and differ in scope from the current report date of 2025-03-20; they are for structural reference only and not a direct basis for the current period.
On options and volatility, the data segment provides no SHFE Gold option implied volatility, PCR, or related metrics; the relevant data are pending update. The international ATR of about USD 30.40/oz may serve as a reference for the magnitude of volatility. Overall, domestic rising price with rising open interest is moderately bullish, while the international net long pullback argues for caution, creating a degree of divergence.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Specific values and historical percentiles for the gold/silver ratio, gold/oil ratio, and gold/copper ratio are all absent from this data segment; the relevant data are pending update. Without specific prices for silver, crude oil, and copper, the ratio readings cannot be computed, and estimated substitutes should not be used.
The available cross-market reference is the direction of the onshore-offshore ratio: on 2025-03-20, SHFE Gold main continuous closed at CNY 710.50/g, while international GC=F closed at USD 3,040.00/oz. The two are quoted in different units (CNY/g vs USD/oz), and without the day's RMB exchange rate and the troy-ounce-to-gram conversion convention, a direct onshore-offshore spread cannot be calculated; the specific onshore-offshore ratio data are pending update.
From a trend-consistency standpoint, international GC=F is up 1.87% over the past 5 days and 3.40% over the past 20 days, while SHFE Gold main continuous has risen from CNY 696.70/g to CNY 710.50/g over the past 5 days; the two are aligned in direction and both in an uptrend, indicating that this gold advance has cross-market resonance rather than being a single-market move. Should international chPos retreat from the 95.00% high, a synchronized cooling of onshore and offshore markets would need to be watched; if the international market holds its highs while domestic open interest continues to build, the ratio resonance is likely to persist.
V. Sentiment
In this data segment, the domestic headlines from the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=GOLD) returned N/A, providing no citable media headlines or sentiment score readings; therefore both the sentiment score and headline bias are pending update, and this report makes no directional attribution and fabricates no media quotes.
Substitutable sentiment indicators are price location and positioning changes: SHFE Gold closed at CNY 710.50/g, near the 20-day high of 712.10, with a pronounced high-end chPos characteristic; international GC=F's chPos stands at 95.00% (2025-03-20), in a high range, which typically corresponds to optimistic market sentiment but rising fragility. If highs are accompanied by continued open interest growth, sentiment leans euphoric; if highs come with falling open interest, profit-taking should be watched. Domestic OI is still rising (204,027 lots), so sentiment is tentatively positive, but the lack of cross-validation from sentiment data limits confidence.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
This data segment does not provide SHFE Gold seasonal statistics, the distribution of gains and losses over the past 10 years for the same period, or monthly win-rate data; the relevant statistical patterns are pending an update. In the absence of a historical sample, no deterministic statement should be made regarding the seasonal direction in late March.
What can be referenced is the positional characteristic of the current price: the SHFE Gold 20-day range is 666.96–712.10 CNY/g, and the current close of 710.50 CNY/g sits at roughly the 97.7th percentile of the range (a rough measure based on range position). Historically, the upper end of a range is often accompanied by amplified volatility and a higher frequency of pullbacks, but this is a general observation, not a statistical conclusion verifiable from this data segment. Internationally, GC=F shows a 20-day gain of 3.40% and a 5-day gain of 1.87%, likewise indicating an accumulation of short-term gains; if one refers to the general pattern that “volatility tends to rise after short-term gains accumulate,” then ATR may expand subsequently, with specific historical percentile data pending an update.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish logic: first, SHFE Gold has closed higher for five consecutive sessions, with the close rising from 696.70 CNY/g to 710.50 CNY/g, leaving the trend structure intact; second, the close of 710.50 is above both MA5 (703.28) and MA20 (686.66), with the moving averages in a bullish alignment; third, domestic open interest (OI) has risen from 190,429 lots to 204,027 lots, with price and open interest rising together, indicating participation by incremental capital; fourth, internationally GC=F shows a 20-day gain of 3.40% and chPos of 95.00%, with external relative value resonating on the bullish side.
Bearish logic: first, the close of 710.50 is approaching the 20-day high of 712.10 and R1 (713.40), with dense overhead resistance reducing the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs; second, international COT net longs have fallen from 144,747 to 133,116, declining for consecutive periods as crowding cools; third, the 03-20 volume of 176,779 lots did not expand significantly, leaving a flaw in the price-volume coordination; fourth, the international chPos of 95.00% is at a high level, raising sentiment fragility, and a pullback could easily trigger a synchronized adjustment.
Short- to medium-term balance of forces: in the short term (1–5 days), the long-short balance is roughly even with a slight bullish tilt, with price above the pivot P (709.20) but capped by R1 (713.40); in the medium term (20-day dimension), the bullish structure dominates, with MA20 (686.66) rising and price well above that moving average. If price holds firmly above 713.40, the bulls will be in control; if it breaks below 706.30 (S1) and loses 703.28 (MA5), the risk of a short-term shift into consolidation or even a pullback to 686.66 (MA20) rises.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (buy on pullback): entry reference the 706.30–703.28 zone (S1 to MA5), stop-loss reference below 699.00 (a buffer above the 03-17 pivot of 697.05), targets reference 713.40 (R1) and an extension after a break of 712.10 (20-day high), horizon 1–5 trading days, position size recommended at no more than 20% of total capital, conviction 7. If price does not pull back but breaks directly above 713.40, this strategy is invalidated; do not chase.
Strategy 2 (breakout follow-through): if price breaks 713.40 (R1) effectively and holds, entry reference above 713.40, stop-loss reference below 706.30 (S1), target reference the 720.00 round-number level (this level is a scenario assumption, not a data-segment reading), horizon 1–5 trading days, position size recommended at no more than 15% of total capital, conviction 6. If price quickly falls back below P (709.20) after the breakout, treat it as a false breakout and exit with a stop-loss.
Risk management: single-trade risk exposure is recommended to be kept within 1% of total capital; if domestic OI turns from rising to falling and price breaks below MA5 (703.28), actively reduce long exposure; if international GC=F breaks below 3,000.00 USD/oz (the 2025-03-17 closing level), the onshore-offshore resonance turns weak and the assessment should be revisited.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
In this data segment, the domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days returns N/A, and the specific event table is pending an update. The known time anchors that can be tracked are: daily SHFE.AU main continuous closing price, volume, and open interest; daily GC=F close, 5-day/20-day change, and chPos; and the weekly update of international COT positioning (the reference date is in Section III, with a year discrepancy, for structural reference only). If a domestic financial calendar is added in a subsequent data segment, this table will be updated accordingly.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.