I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the close on 2025-03-20, the SHFE.RB main continuous contract settled at CNY 3,176.00/t, up 0.22% from the previous trading day, ending four consecutive daily declines. Over the past five trading sessions, the price center of gravity has continued to shift lower: it closed at CNY 3,267.00/t on March 14 (+0.77%), CNY 3,217.00/t on March 17 (-1.23%), CNY 3,191.00/t on March 18 (-1.33%), CNY 3,162.00/t on March 19 (-1.19%), and CNY 3,176.00/t on March 20 (+0.22%). On March 20, trading volume reached 1,727,171 lots, expanding from 1,578,951 lots the prior day; open interest stood at 2,137,880 lots, edging down from 2,173,948 lots the prior day, yet still near a five-session high.
The moving average system is in a bearish alignment: the 5-day MA is at CNY 3,202.60/t and the 20-day MA at CNY 3,263.25/t, with the futures price of CNY 3,176.00/t trading below both. The 20-day high is CNY 3,377.00/t and the 20-day low is CNY 3,134.00/t, leaving the current price near the lower end of the 20-day range. The pivot point P is CNY 3,162.00/t, resistance R1 is CNY 3,190.00/t, and support S1 is CNY 3,148.00/t.
On technical indicators, since the data provide only price and moving averages, the specific RSI, MACD, and ATR readings are pending update. However, inferring from the price-to-MA relationship, near-term momentum is weak: the futures price has closed below the 5-day MA for multiple consecutive sessions, and the 5-day MA sits below the 20-day MA, forming a death-cross pattern. Comparing the March 20 close of CNY 3,176.00/t with the 20-day MA of CNY 3,263.25/t, the negative deviation is about CNY 87.25/t, leaving room for a technical repair.
Key levels: upside resistance lies at CNY 3,190.00/t (R1), CNY 3,202.60/t (MA5), and CNY 3,263.25/t (MA20) in sequence; downside support lies at CNY 3,148.00/t (S1) and CNY 3,134.00/t (20-day low). A decisive break above CNY 3,190.00/t would establish a short-term rebound; a break below CNY 3,148.00/t could open a further test of CNY 3,134.00/t.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On the macro front, as of 2025-03-20, the relevant domestic headline data (market=CN, asset=STEEL) are N/A, and the international market comparison data are also N/A, so no news-event-based fundamental driver analysis can be provided. Macro indicators such as interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations are pending update.
On inventories, Rebar social and mill inventory data are pending update. Typically, mid-to-late March is a key window for the shift from post-holiday accumulation to destocking, but with this period's data missing, the current absolute inventory level and year-on-year change cannot be determined. If subsequent data show accelerating destocking, that would support futures prices; if destocking falls short of expectations, prices would remain under pressure.
Indicators such as central bank gold purchases and ETF holdings have low direct relevance to Rebar but can serve as a gauge of macro risk appetite. Current data are pending update and cannot be incorporated into the analysis.
On geopolitics, there are no recent major event data directly targeting the steel market. Should geopolitical events emerge that affect Iron Ore supply or international trade flows, they could transmit to Rebar prices via the cost side.
Overall, this period's fundamental data are largely missing, so a complete supply-demand driver assessment cannot be formed. Attention should be paid to subsequent inventory data and macro policy signals.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
As of 2025-03-20, the SHFE.RB main continuous contract open interest was 2,137,880 lots, down 36,068 lots from 2,173,948 lots the prior day, a decline of about 1.66%. Open interest over the past five sessions: 1,963,117 lots on March 14, 2,048,428 lots on March 17, 2,164,560 lots on March 18, 2,173,948 lots on March 19, and 2,137,880 lots on March 20. Open interest peaked on March 19 before a modest pullback, yet remains significantly above the March 14 level, indicating that overall capital participation has risen.
On volume, March 20 turnover was 1,727,171 lots, up 148,220 lots from 1,578,951 lots on March 19, an increase of about 9.39%. Rising volume alongside falling open interest suggests that some shorts may be taking profit while new longs enter, pointing to widening market divergence.
Since COT disaggregated positioning data, options open interest, and volatility data are pending update, no analysis based on institutional positioning structure can be provided. However, with total open interest near a five-session high, market crowding has increased, and the risk of amplified price volatility warrants vigilance.
If open interest continues to rise while prices stabilize, that may signal long capital inflows; if open interest rises while prices fall, short pressure remains dominant.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
As of 2025-03-20, cross-asset valuation metrics such as the gold/silver ratio, oil/gold ratio, and copper/gold ratio are all pending update. As a domestically priced black commodity, Rebar's valuation relative to internationally priced products such as copper and crude oil is typically influenced by the exchange rate, tariffs, and domestic demand differentials.
In the absence of specific data, the current relative valuations and their historical percentiles cannot be calculated. If subsequent data become available, attention can be paid to inter-commodity spreads between Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil and Iron Ore, as well as the intra-industrial valuation between Rebar and copper, to gauge relative strength.
From a theoretical standpoint, a copper/gold ratio at historically low levels could imply a pessimistic market view on global growth, which would also be unfavorable for Rebar demand expectations; a weakening oil/gold ratio could reflect fading inflation expectations, weighing on overall commodity valuations. These, however, are general inferences and do not constitute judgments based on current data.
V. Sentiment
As of 2025-03-20, the relevant domestic headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=STEEL) are N/A, so no news sentiment bias can be retrieved. Sentiment score data are pending update.
Inferring from price action, the modest rebound after four consecutive daily declines may reflect some release of short-term bearish sentiment, though overall market sentiment remains cautious. Should industry policy or demand-side positive news emerge, sentiment could be lifted; if bearish developments such as inventory builds or export declines appear, sentiment could weaken further.
Attention should be paid to sentiment shifts on social media, industry forums, and brokerage research reports, but this period offers no data to support a specific judgment.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
As of 2025-03-20, same-period seasonal data over the past 10 years are pending update. Typically, from late March to early April, the Rebar market enters a spring demand ramp-up phase, with prices often showing a range-bound-to-firm pattern, though the specific outcome depends on the pace of construction starts and inventory drawdown that year.
Due to the lack of historical data, no statistically based win rates or return distributions can be provided. If subsequent data become available, the price patterns around March 20 (plus or minus five trading days) and the seasonal characteristics of open interest and volume could be analyzed.
At present, judgment can only be based on the past five sessions: the price has fallen from CNY 3,267.00/t to CNY 3,176.00/t, a cumulative decline of about 2.79%, with a rebound emerging after a short-term oversold move. If historical patterns show a high probability of a late-March rebound, the current recovery could extend; this, however, requires data verification.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish case:
1. After four consecutive daily declines, the price closed up 0.22% on March 20, showing a stabilization signal;
2. The close of CNY 3,176.00/t is above pivot support S1 (CNY 3,148.00/t) and above the 20-day low of CNY 3,134.00/t;
3. Open interest is near a five-session high, indicating rising capital attention, and a long open interest build could fuel a rebound;
4. The negative deviation from the 20-day MA of CNY 3,263.25/t is large, creating a technical repair need.
Bearish case:
1. The price remains below the 5-day MA of CNY 3,202.60/t and the 20-day MA of CNY 3,263.25/t, with the MAs in bearish alignment;
2. The price center of gravity has continued to shift lower over the past five sessions, and the March 20 rebound was limited, failing to break R1 (CNY 3,190.00/t);
3. Open interest pulled back after peaking on March 19, suggesting some longs may have exited;
4. Fundamental data are missing, with no clear bullish catalyst, and market sentiment is cautious.
Near- to medium-term balance of forces: in the short term (1–5 days), long and short forces are roughly balanced, with the price likely to oscillate within the CNY 3,148–3,190/t range; in the medium term (1–4 weeks), if the 20-day MA of CNY 3,263.25/t is not decisively reclaimed, the downtrend may extend. A break below CNY 3,134.00/t could accelerate the decline.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Short-Term Range Trading (LONG)
Entry: If the futures price pulls back to the CNY 3,150–3,160/t zone and stabilizes, a light long position may be initiated;
Stop-loss: CNY 3,140/t (below S1 and the 20-day low);
Target: CNY 3,190–3,200/t (near R1 and the MA5);
Horizon: 1–5 trading days;
Position size: No more than 10% of total capital.
Strategy 2: Short on Rebound (SHORT)
Entry: If the futures price rebounds to the CNY 3,190–3,200/t zone and meets resistance, a light short position may be initiated;
Stop-loss: CNY 3,210/t (above R1 and the MA5);
Target: CNY 3,150–3,140/t (near S1 and the 20-day low);
Horizon: 1–5 trading days;
Position size: No more than 10% of total capital.
Risk management: Set stop-losses strictly and avoid heavy one-sided positions. If the futures price breaks above CNY 3,202.60/t (MA5), the short strategy should be exited; if it breaks below CNY 3,134.00/t, the long strategy should be exited. Monitor changes in open interest and trading volume; if a key level is breached on heavy volume, adjust the strategy in line with the trend.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic economic calendar data for the next 7 days are to be updated. The following potential events merit attention: weekly Rebar inventory data (typically released on Thursday), macroeconomic data (such as PMI and credit), and geopolitical events that may affect the black series. Specific dates and times are to be updated.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.