I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the 2025-04-29 close, SHFE Gold main continuous contract settled at 785.14, up 0.4735% on the day, with turnover of 433,745 lots and open interest of 143,821 lots. The previous four sessions saw sharp volatility: on April 23 it closed at 784.28, down 4.5493%, with turnover of 1,365,148 lots and open interest of 185,564 lots; on April 24 it closed at 792.20, down 2.2241%, with turnover of 1,125,865 lots and open interest of 173,026 lots; on April 25 it closed at 787.20, down 0.1547%, with turnover of 662,672 lots and open interest of 166,311 lots; on April 28 it closed at 780.04, down 1.4379%, with turnover of 543,425 lots and open interest of 151,558 lots. After consecutive sharp declines, a modest rebound appeared on April 29, but turnover and open interest fell in tandem, indicating that long liquidation and short covering coexisted rather than incremental capital driving the move.
On the moving-average structure, on April 29 the MA5 stood at 785.77 and the MA20 at 766.58; the close of 785.14 was slightly below the MA5 but above the MA20, with the short-term average flattening while the medium-term average remains upward. The 20-day high was 836.30 and the 20-day low 701.00; the current price sits in the upper-middle of the 20-day range, but still about 6.1% below the high and about 12.0% above the low. The pivot P is 786.77, R1 is 793.03, and S1 is 778.89; price is oscillating around the pivot, and directional selection has not yet been completed.
On a weekly and monthly view, across the five sessions from April 23 to April 29, only April 29 closed higher while the other four closed lower; the cumulative weekly move from the April 23 close of 784.28 to 785.14 on April 29 was essentially flat, but the range was wide, with the single-day drop of 4.5493% on April 23 the largest one-day decline in the window. On the monthly dimension, the 20-day gain remains positive, but the 5-day move for the international contract GC=F is -2.41%, signaling weakening short-term momentum.
On technical indicators, domestic RSI, MACD, and ATR values are to be updated; for the international GC=F, ATR stands at 83.7143, a relatively high level, with ATR at 93.6214 on April 23, 90.9571 on April 24, 89.0071 on April 25, 85.3643 on April 28, and 83.7143 on April 29; ATR has declined consecutively, with volatility converging from elevated levels, though the absolute level remains high. If ATR continues to fall and price holds above the MA20, the trading range may narrow; if ATR expands again and price breaks below S1 (778.89), downside space opens up.
Key levels: overhead resistance at pivot P 786.77, R1 793.03, and MA5 785.77; downside support at S1 778.89, MA20 766.58, and the 20-day low 701.00. Internally consistent directional read: 785.14 is below 793.03, so 793.03 is resistance; 785.14 is above 778.89, so 778.89 is first support; 785.14 is above 766.58, so the MA20 is medium-term support.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the US dollar, data are to be updated. The international GC=F 5-day change is -2.41% and the 20-day gain is 6.28%, showing the medium-term uptrend is not yet broken but the short term is under pressure. If the dollar and real rates stay elevated, the upside for gold prices will be limited; if rate expectations turn toward easing, gold prices may resume their ascent.
On inflation, data are to be updated. As an inflation-hedge asset, gold pricing is closely tied to inflation expectations, but with current domestic and international inflation data unavailable, the marginal impact on SHFE Gold cannot be quantified.
On inventories and central-bank gold purchases, domestic SHFE inventories, international ETF holdings, and central-bank buying data are all to be updated. COT data show international total open interest OI falling from 427,957 on 2026-08-25 to 409,899 on 2026-09-15, longs L from 159,819 to 142,394, shorts S from 15,072 to 9,278, and net longs from 144,747 to 133,116; net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating marginal reduction in speculative exposure.
On geopolitics, data are to be updated. Domestic headlines over the past 48h are N/A, so the short-term sentiment impact on gold prices cannot be assessed.
Overall, among the fundamental drivers, only the international price and COT positioning are quantifiable; macro, inventories, ETFs, central-bank buying, and geopolitics remain to be updated. If subsequent data confirm slower central-bank buying or ETF outflows, the upward driver for gold prices weakens; if geopolitical risks intensify or rate-cut expectations strengthen, downside support for gold prices increases.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Gold main-contract open interest fell from 185,564 lots on April 23 to 143,821 lots on April 29, a cumulative decline of 41,743 lots over five sessions, or about 22.5%. Over the same period, turnover fell from 1,365,148 lots to 433,745 lots, a decline of about 68.2%. The synchronized drop in open interest and turnover indicates capital exiting after the sharp decline, with the market turning watchful.
On international COT positioning, the latest four weeks are: 2026-08-25 OI=427,957, L=159,819, S=15,072, net=144,747, Δ=3,099; 2026-09-01 OI=415,196, L=149,721, S=12,950, net=136,771, Δ=-7,976; 2026-09-08 OI=411,227, L=145,804, S=10,832, net=134,972, Δ=-1,799; 2026-09-15 OI=409,899, L=142,394, S=9,278, net=133,116, Δ=-1,856. Net longs have fallen for three consecutive weeks, cumulatively down 11,631, while shorts also declined by 5,794, showing long liquidation as the dominant flow with partial short exit; crowding has eased marginally but the absolute net-long level remains high.
On options and volatility, data are to be updated. International GC=F ATR fell from 93.6214 on April 23 to 83.7143 on April 29, with volatility retreating; if implied volatility declines in tandem, option-selling strategies would be favored; if volatility rises again, directional strategies would be preferred.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The gold-silver ratio, gold-oil ratio, gold-copper ratio, and percentile data are all to be updated. Available international reference data: GC=F closed at 3,318.80 on 2025-04-29, down 0.41%, with 5-day -2.41%, 20-day +6.28%, ATR 83.7143, and chPos 68.90%. chPos rose from 60.90% on April 23 to 68.90% on April 29, showing price moving higher within the recent range, but it reached 71.40% on April 28 before falling back on April 29, indicating softer short-term momentum.
With no contemporaneous prices for silver, crude oil, or copper, the gold-silver, gold-oil, and gold-copper ratios and their historical percentiles cannot be computed. If subsequent data become available, focus should be on whether the gold-silver ratio is elevated (implying silver relatively undervalued), whether the gold-oil ratio is depressed (implying gold relatively overvalued versus crude), and whether the gold-copper ratio is weakening (implying cooling growth expectations). For now, the only guidance is that cross-asset relative value is a key dimension for judging gold's relative worth, and trades should not be placed on this basis until data are updated.
V. Sentiment
Sentiment scores are to be updated. Domestic headlines over the past 48h are N/A, so media bias cannot be assessed. International GC=F fell 0.41% on April 29, rose 1.53% on April 28, fell 1.49% on April 25, rose 1.70% on April 24, and fell 3.66% on April 23; over the five sessions there were three down days and two up days, with a maximum single-day decline of 3.66% and a maximum single-day gain of 1.70%, showing sharp sentiment swings but no sustained direction.
If subsequent headlines turn bullish, the probability of a short-term rebound rises; if they turn bearish, the 785 level may be lost. With current sentiment data missing, price and open interest are recommended as the primary tracking indicators.
VI. Historical Statistics
Seasonality and the past 10 years of same-period data are to be updated. The available recent pattern is: across the five sessions from April 23 to April 29, SHFE Gold main contract fell 4.5493% on April 23, 2.2241% on April 24, 0.1547% on April 25, and 1.4379% on April 28, then rose 0.4735% on April 29; the first rebound after four consecutive down days was smaller than the prior single-day declines, showing a weak-rebound character.
International GC=F over the same window shows a 5-day change of -2.41% and a 20-day gain of 6.28%, indicating medium-term uptrend coexisting with short-term pullback. Historical statistical patterns require longer-cycle data; with current data to be updated, no seasonal conclusion can be drawn.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish case: 1) SHFE Gold closed at 785.14, still above the MA20 (766.58), with the medium-term moving average trending up; 2) International GC=F is up 6.28% over 20 days, with the medium-term trend intact; 3) COT short positions fell from 15,072 to 9,278, a clear cut in short positions; 4) On April 29 it closed up 0.4735%, showing signs of stabilization after the sharp drop; 5) ATR fell from 93.6214 to 83.7143, with volatility compression favoring a rebound.
Bearish case: 1) SHFE Gold open interest fell from 185,564 to 143,821, with capital exiting; 2) COT net longs fell from 144,747 to 133,116, declining for three consecutive weeks; 3) International GC=F is down 2.41% over 5 days, with weak short-term momentum; 4) On April 23 it fell 4.5493% in a single day, leaving heavy trapped longs overhead; 5) The close of 785.14 is below R1 (793.03) and the MA5 (785.77), indicating insufficient rebound strength.
Short- vs medium-term balance: Short term (1–5 days) bears hold a slight edge, as price is below the MA5 and open interest is falling; medium term (1–3 months) bulls still hold the edge, as price is above the MA20 and the 20-day return is positive. If price holds firmly above 793.03, the short-term bias turns bullish; if it breaks below 778.89, the short-term bias turns bearish.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (short-term range): Direction LONG, entry 785, stop-loss 766, target 793, horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 6. Logic: Price has stabilized above the MA20; a break above R1 would open upside space; a break below the MA20 triggers the stop-loss.
Strategy 2 (medium-term buy-the-dip): Direction LONG, entry 766, stop-loss 740, target 800, horizon 1–4 weeks, position size no more than 15% of total capital, conviction 7. Logic: The MA20 is medium-term support; if price pulls back to this zone without breaking it, the medium-term bullish structure remains; a break below triggers the stop-loss.
Strategy 3 (short-term defense): Direction SHORT, entry 793, stop-loss 806, target 778, horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 8% of total capital, conviction 5. Logic: If price rebounds to the R1 area and stalls, short-term shorts can enter; a break above 806 triggers the stop-loss.
Risk management: Risk per trade no more than 2% of total capital, total position size no more than 30%, avoid heavy positions when data is missing. If ATR expands again above 90, reduce position size.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days to be updated. Internationally, watch US inflation, employment, and Fed officials' speeches; specific dates and consensus values to be updated. Recommend daily tracking of SHFE Gold open interest, volume, and changes in international GC=F ATR.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.