I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of April 29, 2025, SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 77,600/t, up 0.2973% versus the previous trading day. The intraday pivot P is 77,553.33, the first resistance R1 is 77,806.67, and the first support S1 is 77,346.67. Over the past five trading days, the price pattern has been “decline first, then rebound, then range-bound”: on April 23 it surged 1.2216% to 77,890, then fell 0.4501% and 0.2833% on April 24 and 25 respectively, edged down 0.0773% on April 28, and closed higher again on April 29. On volume and open interest, April 29 volume was 79,140 lots, a marked contraction from 114,074 lots on April 28; open interest was 164,818 lots, down further from 165,067 lots on April 28, indicating a marginal decline in capital participation.
On the moving average system, MA5 on April 29 was 77,584 and MA20 was 76,524; the close of 77,600 sits about 16 points above MA5 and about 1,076 points above MA20, with short-term MAs in a bullish alignment but with a gentle slope. The 20-day high H20 is 80,460 and the 20-day low L20 is 71,320; the current price is in the upper-middle of the 20-day range, about 3.7% below the high and about 8.8% above the low. Using pivot P 77,553.33 as the bull-bear watershed, the close is slightly above the pivot, implying a mild short-term bullish bias.
On technical indicators, the data does not directly provide onshore RSI, MACD, or ATR values, but the offshore HG=F ATR is 0.1183, implying a recent average daily range of about USD 0.1183/lb; at the current USD 4.8230/lb, daily volatility is about 2.45%, in the moderately high range. The onshore market can reference offshore volatility: if SHFE Copper moves in sync, a reasonable single-day range is about CNY 1,900/t. On key levels, upside resistance lies at R1 77,806.67, the April 23 high of 77,890, and the 20-day high of 80,460; downside support lies at S1 77,346.67, MA20 76,524, and the 20-day low of 71,320. If the price holds above MA20, the range-bound-to-firm pattern should extend; if it breaks below 76,524, it may retest the 75,000 area.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, the data does not provide direct indicators such as domestic rates, the US dollar index, or inflation, but offshore HG=F is down 0.98% over five days and down 3.92% over 20 days, showing offshore copper under pressure, possibly reflecting a stronger dollar or weaker global demand expectations. Domestic SHFE Copper has been relatively resilient over the same period, closing up 0.2973% on April 29; the onshore-offshore divergence may be related to the RMB exchange rate, domestic inventory changes, and policy expectations. Due to missing data, specific macro drivers await updates.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, the data provides no copper inventory or central bank gold purchase data, so no quantitative analysis is possible. ETF holdings data is also missing, so ETF-channel inflows and outflows cannot be assessed. On geopolitics, no related events are provided, so no evaluation is possible.
From the offshore comparison, HG=F shows a 20-day change of -3.92% and a 5-day change of -0.98%, indicating greater medium-term downside pressure than short-term. If the offshore market continues to weaken, domestic copper may face catch-down pressure; if domestic policy turns supportive, the onshore-offshore spread may widen. Overall, fundamental driver data is insufficient and awaits further updates.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest fell from 171,055 lots on April 23 to 164,818 lots on April 29, a cumulative decline of 6,237 lots over five trading days, or about 3.65%. Of this, open interest fell 249 lots on April 29, 866 lots on April 28, 203 lots on April 25, and 4,919 lots on April 24, indicating concentrated open interest cuts on April 24, after which the pace of cuts slowed. The volume-to-open-interest ratio was 79,140/164,818 ≈ 0.48 on April 29, down markedly from 137,622/171,055 ≈ 0.80 on April 23, reflecting lower market activity.
On offshore COT positioning, the data provides four weeks of non-commercial positions: for the week of September 15, 2026, total open interest OI = 289,463, longs L = 83,704, shorts S = 18,598, net long net = 65,106, week-over-week Δ = -17,048; for the week of September 8, net long 82,154, Δ = +9,272; for the week of September 1, net long 72,882, Δ = -3,389; for the week of August 25, net long 76,271, Δ = -2,377. In the latest week, net longs fell sharply by 17,048 lots, showing a significant retreat in long crowding, though net longs remain elevated at 65,106 lots. If net longs continue to decline, copper prices may come under further pressure; if net longs stabilize, a short-term bottom may emerge.
On options and volatility, the data provides no domestic option implied volatility or position distribution; the offshore ATR is 0.1183, at a relatively high level over the past five days (April 28: 0.1149, April 25: 0.1316, April 24: 0.1596, April 23: 0.1729), indicating volatility has retreated from highs but remains above average. If volatility continues to fall, prices may enter a narrow range.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data provides no cross-asset ratios such as gold/silver, oil/gold, or copper/gold, so specific percentiles cannot be calculated. Only a qualitative analysis of the offshore HG=F versus domestic SHFE Copper relationship is possible: on April 29, HG=F closed at USD 4.8230/lb and SHFE Copper closed at CNY 77,600/t; using 1 tonne = 2,204.62 lb and an exchange rate of about 7.2, the theoretical import cost is about 4.8230 × 2,204.62 × 7.2 ≈ CNY 76,500/t, versus the SHFE close of CNY 77,600/t, implying a domestic premium of about CNY 1,100/t and relative domestic strength. If the offshore market falls further, the domestic premium may widen and the import window may close; if the offshore market rebounds, the premium may narrow.
Due to the lack of gold/silver and oil/gold data, copper's relative valuation percentile across assets cannot be determined. Attention should be paid to subsequent data updates: if the copper/gold ratio is at a historical low, copper may be undervalued relative to gold; if at a high, it may be overvalued. Current data awaits updates.
V. Sentiment
The data provides no domestic headlines from the past 48 hours, so the sentiment score cannot be quantified. From offshore price action, HG=F fell 0.31% on April 29, is down 0.98% over five days, and down 3.92% over 20 days, indicating cautious market sentiment. Domestic SHFE Copper rose a modest 0.2973% on April 29, but with shrinking volume and falling open interest, suggesting weak long conviction. If supportive news emerges, sentiment may repair; if negative news emerges, the decline may accelerate. Sentiment monitoring data awaits updates.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
The data provides no seasonal patterns or same-period data over the past 10 years, so no historical statistics can be performed. From the available data, SHFE Copper main continuous five-day changes were +1.2216%, -0.4501%, -0.2833%, -0.0773%, and +0.2973%, forming a “sharp rise followed by consecutive small declines then a small rise” pattern, similar to range-bound consolidation. Offshore HG=F five-day changes were -0.72%, +0.30%, -0.30%, +0.05%, and -0.31%, also showing a range-bound pattern. Historical statistical regularities await updates.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bull case: 1) SHFE Copper closed at 77,600, above MA5 77,584 and MA20 76,524, so short-term moving average support is intact; 2) it rose 0.2973% on April 29 and closed above pivot P 77,553.33, indicating a short-term bullish bias; 3) the domestic premium of about CNY 1,100/t shows relatively firm domestic demand; 4) although COT net longs have fallen, they remain at 65,106 lots, so longs have not exited en masse.
Bear case: 1) offshore HG=F is down 3.92% over 20 days, and offshore pressure may transmit to the domestic market; 2) SHFE Copper open interest has fallen consecutively, with clear signs of capital outflow; 3) volume has contracted, with only 79,140 lots on April 29, sharply lower than 137,622 lots on April 23; 4) COT net longs fell 17,048 lots week-over-week, long crowding has retreated, and if cuts continue, prices will be pressured.
Short- versus medium-term balance: in the short term (1–5 days), bullish and bearish factors are mixed; with price above MA20, the bias is range-bound-to-firm if 76,524 holds, and bearish if it breaks. In the medium term (1–4 weeks), offshore weakness and domestic resilience are in a tug-of-war: if the offshore market stabilizes, the domestic market may catch up; if the offshore market falls further, domestic catch-down risk rises. The overall assessment is a range-bound market with no strong directional edge.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Range long. If the price retraces to MA20 76,524 and stabilizes, a light long can be initiated at 76,500, with a stop-loss at 75,800 and a target of 77,800, over 1–5 days, with position size no more than 10%. Exit on a stop-loss if 75,800 is breached.
Strategy 2: Short on rebound. If the price rebounds to R1 77,806.67 and stalls, a light short can be initiated at 77,800, with a stop-loss at 78,300 and a target of 76,500, over 1–5 days, with position size no more than 10%. Exit on a stop-loss if 78,300 is breached.
Risk management: single-trade loss should not exceed 1% of total capital, and total position size should not exceed 20%. Monitor offshore HG=F and COT position changes; if the offshore market breaks below 4.80, domestic longs should be treated with caution.
9. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is to be updated. Suggested focus: China official PMI, Caixin PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, FOMC meeting, LME copper inventory changes. Specific dates to be updated.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.