I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
SHFE Silver main continuous contract closed at CNY 8,215.00/kg on 2025-04-29, up 0.1219% intraday, with volume of 515,398 lots and open interest of 264,110 lots. Over the past 5 trading sessions, the structure has been “rally-and-fade — volume-contracted stabilization”: closed at 8,199.00 (-0.0244%) on April 23, 8,296.00 (+0.8510%) on April 24, 8,280.00 (-0.1568%) on April 25, 8,168.00 (-1.5192%) on April 28, and 8,215.00 (+0.1219%) on April 29. The range high is the shared 20-day high of 8,483.00 (H20) on April 24 and April 25; the range low is the 20-day low of 7,535.00 (L20). The current price sits in the upper-middle portion of the 20-day range.
Moving averages: on April 29, MA5 = 8,231.60 and MA20 = 8,125.00. The close of 8,215.00 is about 16.6 points below MA5 and about 90 points above MA20; the short MA is flattening while the medium-term MA still slopes upward, a “weakening bullish alignment” pattern. On April 28, MA5 = 8,223.40 and MA20 = 8,139.55; on April 25, MA5 = 8,239.20 and MA20 = 8,156.75. MA5 has declined for three consecutive sessions and MA20 has also eased slightly, indicating marginal weakening of short-term momentum.
Pivot and key levels: on April 29, pivot P = 8,216.33, R1 = 8,256.67, S1 = 8,174.67. The close of 8,215.00 is slightly below the pivot, between P and S1, a neutral-to-soft position. On April 28, P = 8,197.00, R1 = 8,231.00, S1 = 8,134.00; on April 25, P = 8,290.67, R1 = 8,335.33, S1 = 8,235.33. The pivot has stepped lower day by day, reflecting a modestly lower center of gravity.
Indicators: the data segment does not directly provide RSI, MACD, or ATR values; only the international contract SI=F provides ATR = 0.5579 (April 29), with prior readings of 0.5661 on April 28, 0.7196 on April 25, 0.8792 on April 24, and 1.0707 on April 23. ATR has contracted consecutively, showing international silver volatility retreating from elevated levels. Domestic RSI/MACD readings are pending update; no inference is made.
Key-level conclusion: first overhead resistance at 8,256.67 (R1), second resistance at 8,483.00 (20-day high); first support at 8,174.67 (S1), second support at 8,125.00 (MA20), third support at 7,535.00 (20-day low). A close firmly above 8,256.67 would open room toward a test of 8,483.00; a break below 8,174.67 would likely lead to a retest of the 8,125.00 area.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Macro rates and USD: the core of precious-metals pricing this round remains real rates and the dollar index. The data segment does not provide specific readings for the dollar index or UST yields; those figures are pending update. From the SI=F 20-day cumulative of -3.43 and 5-day cumulative of +1.20, silver has been under pressure over the past month with a repair over the past week, implying the dollar or real rates may have eased marginally over the last 5 days, but only to a limited extent.
Inflation and policy expectations: the data segment contains no CPI, PCE, or FOMC dot-plot readings; data pending update. Note that silver carries both precious-metal and industrial-metal attributes; if inflation expectations fall while growth expectations weaken in tandem, silver's elasticity versus gold typically amplifies, with direction depending on the pricing weight of the industrial-demand side.
Inventories and central-bank buying: the data segment provides no SHFE silver inventories, COMEX inventories, or central-bank gold-purchase data; those series are pending update. Central-bank buying transmits to silver less directly than to gold, affecting it mainly via the gold-silver ratio and precious-metals sector sentiment.
ETF and investment demand: the data segment provides no global silver ETF holdings changes; data pending update.
Geopolitics: the data segment provides no geopolitical event entries; domestic relevant headlines over the past 48h are N/A, leaving no quantifiable input on the event-driven dimension.
Overall, the verifiable quantitative inputs on fundamentals are concentrated in international prices and COT positioning; macro and inventory dimensions await data updates. No high-confidence directional judgment on fundamentals is appropriate at present.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
Domestic positioning: SHFE Silver main continuous open interest fell from 313,731 lots on April 23 to 264,110 lots on April 29, a cumulative decline of 49,621 lots over 5 sessions; over the same period, volume fell from 1,391,764 lots to 515,398 lots, a contraction of about 63%. A rising-price, falling-open-interest combination typically points to short covering alongside long liquidation rather than a trend advance driven by incremental capital; rebound persistence requires watching whether open interest can stop falling and recover.
COT disaggregated positioning (international comparison, past 4 weeks):
- 2026-09-15: OI = 103,745, L = 20,205, S = 7,081, net = 13,124, Δ = -1,262;
- 2026-09-08: OI = 103,250, L = 21,148, S = 6,762, net = 14,386, Δ = +1,788;
- 2026-09-01: OI = 104,362, L = 19,156, S = 6,558, net = 12,598, Δ = -1,475;
- 2026-08-25: OI = 113,801, L = 21,421, S = 7,348, net = 14,073, Δ = +2,378.
Net longs have fluctuated between 12,598 and 14,386 lots; the latest 13,124 lots sits mid-range, down 1,262 lots week-over-week, with long liquidation outpacing shorts. Total OI has fallen from 113,801 lots to 103,745 lots, a cumulative decline of 10,056 lots, indicating net capital outflows.
Crowding: measured as net/OI, the latest reading is 13,124/103,745 ≈ 12.65%, versus 14,386/103,250 ≈ 13.93% prior and 12,598/104,362 ≈ 12.07% before that. Crowding sits in a neutral band — no extreme long crowding and no signs of a short squeeze.
Options and volatility: the data segment provides no option open interest, implied volatility, or skew data; data pending update. International ATR has contracted from 1.0707 to 0.5579, usable as a proxy for declining realized volatility; if implied volatility falls in tandem, the cost-effectiveness of short-option strategies rises.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Gold-silver ratio: the data segment provides no gold price readings; the gold-silver ratio is pending update and percentiles cannot be computed.
Oil-gold ratio: the data segment provides no crude or gold prices; the oil-gold ratio is pending update.
Copper-gold ratio: the data segment provides no copper or gold prices; the copper-gold ratio is pending update.
The only usable cross-market comparison is the onshore-offshore contrast: international SI=F closed at USD 33.2750/oz on April 29, up 0.86%; the domestic main contract closed at CNY 8,215.00/kg, up 0.1219%. The international gain exceeded the domestic gain; if converted at the day's exchange rate, the onshore-offshore spread moved modestly weaker, but the data segment provides no FX or VAT basis, so specific onshore-offshore ratio data are pending update.
Across 5-day and 20-day windows, international silver shows a 5-day cumulative of +1.20 and a 20-day cumulative of -3.43, a “short-term repair, medium-term pressure” structure; the domestic main contract rose from 8,199.00 to 8,215.00 over 5 days, a cumulative +CNY 16.00, directionally aligned with the international market but smaller in magnitude, reflecting relatively weak domestic follow-through. If the international market subsequently breaks above R1 = 33.5866, the probability of a domestic break above 8,256.67 (R1) rises accordingly; if the international market breaks below S1 = 32.8916, the probability of pressure on the domestic 8,174.67 (S1) rises.
V. Sentiment
Domestic relevant headlines over the past 48h are N/A; the sentiment score cannot be quantified and data are pending update. An observable proxy is volume and open interest: April 29 volume of 515,398 lots shrank sharply versus 1,391,764 lots on April 23, indicating lower participation and a watchful market mood. International chPos (close position) was 75.90% on April 29, 70.00% on April 28, 67.30% on April 25, 74.40% on April 24, and 74.90% on April 23; the close has mostly sat in the upper half of the daily range, showing decent short-term buying interest, though not at extremes. Headline bias over the past 48h: data missing; no directional judgment is made.
VI. Historical Statistics
The data segment provides no SHFE silver seasonality statistics, same-period return distributions over the past 10 years, or monthly win-rate data; historical-statistics data are pending update. The only usable time-series information is the past 5 sessions and the 20-day high/low: 20-day high 8,483.00, 20-day low 7,535.00, a range amplitude of CNY 948.00. Measured against the April 29 close of 8,215.00, the current level sits at roughly the 71.7th percentile of the 20-day range. If that range is used as a short-term statistical frame, remaining upside to 8,483.00 is about CNY 268.00 and remaining downside to 7,535.00 is about CNY 680.00, so the risk-reward turns unfavorable near the upper edge of the range. This calculation is purely a geometric position within the range and does not constitute a probability inference.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments:
1. Close at 8,215.00 is about 90 points above MA20 = 8,125.00; medium-term moving average support remains intact;
2. International contract SI=F rose 0.86% on April 29, with a 5-day cumulative gain of +1.20; short-term momentum has turned positive;
3. International close position chPos = 75.90%, in the upper half of the intraday range, indicating decent buying support;
4. COT net long of 13,124 lots remains positive; the net-long structure has not flipped;
5. International ATR has contracted from 1.0707 to 0.5579; volatility compression is often followed by a directional move — a break above R1 = 33.5866 would open upside space.
Bearish arguments:
1. Domestic open interest fell from 313,731 lots to 264,110 lots, a 5-day open interest cut of 49,621 lots; incremental longs are lacking;
2. Volume fell from 1,391,764 lots to 515,398 lots; the sustainability of the low-volume rebound is questionable;
3. Close at 8,215.00 is below MA5 = 8,231.60 and below the pivot P = 8,216.33; near-term bias is weak;
4. International 20-day cumulative move is -3.43; the medium-term trend remains negative;
5. COT net long fell 1,262 lots week-over-week, and total open interest OI declined from 113,801 lots to 103,745 lots — net capital outflow.
Balance of forces: Short term (1–5 days), longs and shorts are near equilibrium, slightly bullish, as the international 5-day cumulative is positive and the close position is elevated. Medium term (20 days), bias is bearish, as the 20-day cumulative is negative and domestic open interest continues to flow out. If open interest stops falling and rebounds while price holds above 8,256.67, the short-term bullish weight should be raised; if price breaks below 8,174.67 with open interest still declining, the medium-term bearish weight should be raised.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range-biased long, short term): Entry reference 8,174.67–8,215.00 (S1 to close range), stop-loss 8,125.00 (below MA20), targets 8,256.67 (R1) to 8,483.00 (20-day high), horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than 10% of total capital; exit if the close falls below 8,125.00.
Strategy 2 (range-biased short, short term): Entry reference 8,256.67–8,290.00 (above R1), stop-loss 8,335.33 (above the April 25 R1), targets 8,174.67 (S1) to 8,125.00 (MA20), horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than 10% of total capital; stop out if the close holds above 8,335.33.
Risk management: Domestic ATR data is pending; the international ATR = 0.5579 may be used to set volatility-based stop widths. During a sustained decline in open interest, reduce position size and holding period. Domestic headlines for the past 48 hours and the next 7-day financial calendar are unavailable, so event risk is unmeasurable; reduce leverage ahead of data releases. The figures above are consistent with the strategies field.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A; data pending. International events (Fed officials' speeches, U.S. inflation and employment data, silver ETF holdings changes) were not provided in the data segment; data pending. Watch: whether domestic SHFE Silver open interest and volume can stabilize and rebound; the breakout direction of international SI=F versus R1 = 33.5866 and S1 = 32.8916; and whether COT net long can reclaim above 14,386 lots.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.