1. Executive Summary
Crude oil led the commodity complex higher on 2025-05-13, with WTI (CL=F) settling at 63.67, up 2.78% on the day, and Brent (BZ=F) at 66.63, up 2.57%. The move extends a five-day advance of 7.75% in WTI and 7.21% in Brent, placing WTI in the 85.5th percentile of its 20-day range (20-day high 65.09, low 55.30). Copper (HG=F) also participated in the risk-on tone, rising 2.25% to 4.6815, though it remains down 1.13% over five sessions. Silver (SI=F) gained 1.48% to 32.8680, while gold (GC=F) rebounded 0.63% to 3240.30 following a 3.46% decline on 2025-05-12; gold is still down 5.02% over the past five sessions and sits in only the 14.5th percentile of its 20-day range (20-day high 3485.60, low 3198.60). Natural gas (NG=F) was effectively unchanged at 3.6470 (+0.03%), and soybeans (ZS=F) edged up 0.12% to 1067.25.
The macro driver remains the restrictive real-rate environment. According to the latest data, the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) stands at 2.17% as of 2025-05-13, the effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) is 4.33%, and the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) is +0.47%. The ICE US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) is quoted at 101.00, and the 10-year nominal yield (^TNX) at 4.4990%. The BofA high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 3.09% indicates no acute liquidity stress, while the VIX at 18.22 suggests moderate equity-market volatility.
Positioning data from the CFTC as of 2025-05-13 shows managed-money net length declining in crude oil by 10,479 contracts to 118,096, in silver by 1,549 to 28,333, and in gold by 864 to 101,227. Natural gas remains net short at -38,523, though the weekly change of +6,654 reflects short covering. Copper net length rose 1,707 to 23,792.
The primary risk factor for the next session is the combination of a firm dollar (DXY 101.00) and elevated real yields (2.17%), which may continue to cap upside in precious metals. EIA data for the week ended 2025-05-09 showed crude inventories rising 3,454 thousand barrels to 441,830 thousand, a bearish input that the market appears to have absorbed given the strong price action.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at 3240.30 on 2025-05-13, up 0.63% from the prior close of 3220.00. The session opened at 3232.00, traded a high of 3251.40 and a low of 3223.50, and closed near the upper end of the intraday range. The rebound follows a sharp 3.46% decline on 2025-05-12, when the metal fell from 3335.40 to 3220.00. Despite the bounce, gold remains down 5.02% over five sessions and 1.11% higher over 20 sessions. The 20-day high stands at 3485.60 (set 2025-04-22) and the 20-day low at 3198.60 (set 2025-05-01). The ATR has compressed to 72.91 from 81.00 on 2025-05-12, indicating fading realized volatility. The gold/silver ratio stands at 98.59.
Silver (SI=F). Silver outperformed gold, settling at 32.8680, up 1.48% from 32.388. The session opened at 33.200, reached a high of 33.205 and a low of 32.805. Silver is down 0.74% over five sessions but up 2.42% over 20 sessions, and sits in the 63.4th percentile of its 20-day range (20-day high 33.550, low 31.685). The ATR is 0.6418. The relative outperformance of silver versus gold on the day is consistent with a modest risk-on impulse across industrial-adjacent metals.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI crude settled at 63.67, up 2.78% from 61.95. The session opened at 62.00, traded a high of 63.90 and a low of 61.65. WTI is up 7.75% over five sessions and 3.48% over 20 sessions, and sits in the 85.5th percentile of its 20-day range (20-day high 65.09, low 55.30). Brent (BZ=F) settled at 66.63, up 2.57%, and sits in the 80.4th percentile of its 20-day range. The WTI-Brent spread implied by the two settlements is approximately -2.96. The ATR for WTI is 2.3057. The strength came despite a bearish EIA crude build (see Section 5).
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas settled at 3.6470, up 0.03% from 3.646. The session opened at 3.677, traded a high of 3.728 and a low of 3.570. NG is up 5.31% over five sessions and 9.68% over 20 sessions, and sits in the 80.3rd percentile of its 20-day range (20-day high 3.840, low 2.858). The ATR is 0.2104. The flat close masks an intraday range of roughly 0.158, or about 4.3% of the settlement price.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at 4.6815, up 2.25% from 4.5785. The session opened at 4.5705, traded a high of 4.6825 and a low of 4.5700. Copper is down 1.13% over five sessions but up 1.54% over 20 sessions, and sits in the 50.1st percentile of its 20-day range (20-day high 4.9145, low 4.4480). The ATR is 0.1135. The copper/gold ratio stands at 0.001445.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at 1067.25, up 0.12% from 1066.00. The session opened at 1069.00, traded a high of 1071.00 and a low of 1067.25. Soybeans are up 3.14% over five sessions and 2.45% over 20 sessions, and sit in the 91.5th percentile of their 20-day range (20-day high 1071.00, low 1027.00). The ATR is 13.0893. The tight intraday range (high-low of 3.75) reflects a consolidation session after the prior day's 2.11% advance.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop as of 2025-05-13 remains characterized by restrictive policy and positive real rates. The effective federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS) stands at 4.33% as of 2025-05-01, while the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) is 2.17% as of 2025-05-13. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield (^TNX) is 4.4990%. This combination of a positive real yield above 2% represents a meaningful headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, consistent with gold's 5.02% five-session decline.
The yield curve, measured by the 10-year minus 2-year spread (T10Y2Y), stands at +0.47% as of 2025-05-13, indicating a positively sloped curve and a market that is no longer pricing imminent recession risk with the same intensity as during inversion episodes. The ICE US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) is quoted at 101.00, a level that historically correlates negatively with dollar-denominated commodity prices.
Inflation data show the US CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 320.62 as of 2025-05-01, and the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) at 125.79 as of 2025-05-01. The labor market remains resilient, with total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,498 thousand and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.30% as of 2025-05-01.
Liquidity conditions appear orderly. The BofA high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 3.09% as of 2025-05-13 is well contained, and the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) stands at 144.214 billion USD as of 2025-05-13. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) was 6,710,889 million USD as of 2025-05-07, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening trajectory.
Equity market risk sentiment appears constructive, with E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES=F) at 5904.50 and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) at 21278.00. The VIX at 18.22 indicates moderate but not elevated volatility expectations. The combination of firm equities, a stable dollar, and contained credit spreads suggests a macro environment in which cyclical commodities such as crude oil and copper can rally, while precious metals face headwinds from real rates.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of 2025-05-13, positioning across the commodity complex shows a mixed picture, with notable reductions in crude oil and silver net length and a continued net-short stance in natural gas.
Gold. Managed-money net length stood at 101,227 contracts, comprising 144,410 long and 43,183 short positions against total open interest of 440,842. The weekly change was -864 contracts, a modest reduction. The net-long-to-open-interest ratio is approximately 22.96%. The relatively small weekly reduction, despite a 5.02% five-session price decline, suggests that the long base has not capitulated.
Silver. Net length was 28,333 contracts (43,522 long, 15,189 short) against open interest of 138,262, with a weekly change of -1,549. The net-long-to-OI ratio is approximately 20.49%. The reduction in silver length is consistent with the metal's 0.74% five-session decline.
Crude Oil. Net length fell by 10,479 contracts to 118,096 (191,026 long, 72,930 short) against open interest of 1,948,099. This was the largest weekly reduction among the tracked contracts. The net-long-to-OI ratio is approximately 6.06%. Notably, the reduction in net length occurred alongside a 7.75% five-session price rally, suggesting that the rally was driven by short covering and/or new short positioning rather than fresh managed-money length.
Natural Gas. Net position remained short at -38,523 contracts (134,937 long, 173,460 short) against open interest of 1,530,591. The weekly change of +6,654 reflects net short covering. The net-short-to-OI ratio is approximately -2.52%. The persistent net-short stance, despite a 5.31% five-session and 9.68% 20-session price advance, represents a potential contrarian signal if prices continue to rise.
Copper. Net length rose by 1,707 contracts to 23,792 (52,763 long, 28,971 short) against open interest of 195,840. The net-long-to-OI ratio is approximately 12.15%. The increase in copper length is consistent with the 2.25% daily gain and suggests constructive positioning.
In aggregate, the positioning data indicate that crude oil and silver saw the most significant weekly reductions in net length, while copper and natural gas saw increases. The natural gas net-short position remains the most extreme relative to its own history among the tracked contracts, though the weekly change shows covering.
5. Today's Focus
EIA Inventory Data (week ended 2025-05-09). According to EIA data, crude oil inventories rose by 3,454 thousand barrels to 441,830 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1,022 thousand barrels to 224,706 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 3,155 thousand barrels to 103,553 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization stood at 90.20%. The crude build was bearish on its face, but the product draws (gasoline and distillates) and the strong refinery run rate provided a partially offsetting bullish signal, consistent with the 2.78% rally in WTI on 2025-05-13. The crack spread (321) stands at 27.38.
Macro Data Releases. The economic calendar for the next seven days is not available in the provided data (“N/A”). Market participants will nonetheless monitor the trajectory of real yields (DFII10 at 2.17%) and the dollar (DXY at 101.00) as the primary macro inputs for commodity pricing.
Geopolitical Developments. No headline data was provided in the 48-hour news feed (“N/A”). The strong crude oil rally of 7.75% over five sessions, however, is consistent with supply-side concerns or geopolitical risk premium building into the price, though the specific catalyst is not identified in the provided data.
Positioning Flows. The CFTC data showing a 10,479-contract reduction in crude oil net length alongside rising prices suggests that the rally may be driven by short covering rather than fresh length, a dynamic that could limit the durability of the move if new buyers do not emerge.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at 3240.30, above the daily pivot of 3238.40. The first resistance level (R1) is 3253.30 and the first support level (S1) is 3225.40. The ATR is 72.91. The metal is in a short-term downtrend, having fallen 5.02% over five sessions, but the 0.63% bounce on 2025-05-13 and the close above the pivot suggest stabilization. The 20-day range is 3198.60 to 3485.60, and the current price sits in the 14.5th percentile, indicating the metal is near the lower end of its recent range. A sustained break above R1 at 3253.30 could open the path toward the 3300 area, while a break below S1 at 3225.40 would expose the 20-day low at 3198.60. Given the elevated real yield (2.17%) and firm dollar (101.00), the trend remains challenged; traders may consider buying dips toward the 20-day low with tight stops, but the risk/reward favors patience until real yields show signs of peaking.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at 63.67, above the pivot of 63.07. R1 is 64.50 and S1 is 62.25. The ATR is 2.3057. The trend is clearly upward, with a 7.75% five-session gain and a close in the 85.5th percentile of the 20-day range (high 65.09, low 55.30). The break above the prior 20-day high area near 65.09 would be a significant bullish confirmation. However, the CFTC data showing a 10,479-contract reduction in net length during the rally is a cautionary signal that the move may be short-covering-driven. Traders may consider buying dips toward S1 at 62.25, with a stop below the 61.00 area, targeting R1 at 64.50 and then the 20-day high at 65.09. A failure to hold above the pivot at 63.07 would neutralize the near-term bullish bias.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at 4.6815, above the pivot of 4.6447. R1 is 4.7194 and S1 is 4.6069. The ATR is 0.1135. The metal is in a range, sitting in the 50.1st percentile of its 20-day range (high 4.9145, low 4.4480). The 2.25% daily gain is constructive, and the increase in CFTC net length (+1,707) supports a mildly bullish bias. A break above R1 at 4.7194 could target the 4.80 area, while a break below S1 at 4.6069 would expose the 4.55 area. Given the neutral range position, traders may consider a range-trading approach, buying near S1 and selling near R1, with the caveat that a decisive break of either level could signal a directional move.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
USD vs Commodities. The ICE US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) stands at 101.00. The firm dollar is a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, yet crude oil (+2.78%), copper (+2.25%), and silver (+1.48%) all rallied on 2025-05-13, suggesting that commodity-specific factors (supply concerns, positioning) are currently outweighing the currency effect. The gold/silver ratio at 98.59 remains elevated relative to historical norms, indicating that silver is cheap relative to gold on a relative-value basis.
Gold vs Real Yields. The 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) is 2.17%, a restrictive level that historically correlates negatively with gold prices. Gold's 5.02% five-session decline is consistent with this relationship. The gold/oil ratio stands at 0.0196 (oil/gold ratio), reflecting the recent outperformance of crude oil.
Energy Complex. WTI settled at 63.67 and Brent at 66.63, implying a WTI-Brent spread of approximately -2.96. Natural gas settled at 3.6470, up 5.31% over five sessions and 9.68% over 20 sessions. The crack spread (321) at 27.38 reflects refining margins. The energy complex is broadly firm, with heating oil (HO=F) at 2.1713 (+2.85%) and RBOB gasoline (RB=F) at 2.1660 (+1.54%) both participating in the rally. The RB crack position is in the 97.2nd percentile of its 20-day range, indicating strong gasoline margins.
Base Metals Basket. Copper (HG=F) at 4.6815 (+2.25%) and aluminum (ALI=F) at 2400.75 (+0.79%) both advanced. The copper/gold ratio at 0.001445 reflects the relative underperformance of copper versus gold over the longer term, though copper's daily gain outpaced gold's on 2025-05-13.
Equities and Volatility. E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES=F) at 5904.50 and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) at 21278.00 indicate constructive risk sentiment. The VIX at 18.22 is moderate. The combination of firm equities and rising cyclical commodities (oil, copper) is consistent with a “risk-on” session, though precious metals also participated, suggesting a broad commodity bid.
8. Risk Factors
1. Real-Rate Risk. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.17% remains a significant headwind for gold and silver. A further rise in real yields could accelerate precious-metal declines, particularly given gold's 5.02% five-session drop and its position in the 14.5th percentile of its 20-day range.
2. Positioning Risk in Crude Oil. The 10,479-contract reduction in managed-money net length during a 7.75% five-session rally suggests the move may be short-covering-driven. If fresh buying does not materialize, crude oil could be vulnerable to a sharp reversal.
3. Inventory Risk. The EIA reported a 3,454 thousand-barrel crude build for the week ended 2025-05-09. A continuation of builds in subsequent weeks could weigh on crude prices despite the current rally.
4. Dollar Risk. The DXY at 101.00 represents a firm dollar. A further appreciation could pressure the entire commodity complex, particularly dollar-sensitive metals.
5. Natural Gas Short-Squeeze Risk. The persistent net-short position in natural gas (-38,523 contracts) combined with a 9.68% 20-session price advance creates the conditions for a potential short squeeze, which could drive prices sharply higher and create volatility for both longs and shorts.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next five trading days is not available in the provided data (“N/A”). Market participants will focus on the following themes:
- Real Yields and Fed Policy. With the effective fed funds rate at 4.33% and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.17%, any shift in Fed communication or incoming inflation data (CPI at 320.62, core PCE at 125.79) could move real rates and, by extension, precious metals.
- EIA Inventory Data. The next weekly EIA release will be closely watched following the 3,454 thousand-barrel crude build and the 3,155 thousand-barrel distillate draw reported for the week ended 2025-05-09.
- CFTC Positioning. The next Commitments of Traders report will reveal whether the crude oil net-length reduction continues and whether natural gas shorts continue to cover.
- OPEC+ and Supply Developments. No OPEC+ meeting is indicated in the provided data, but supply-side headlines remain a key swing factor for crude oil given the 7.75% five-session rally.
- USDA Reports. For agricultural commodities, the soybean complex (ZS at 1067.25, ZM at 285.90, ZL at 51.10) will be sensitive to any USDA updates, though none are indicated in the provided calendar.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Crude Oil (CL=F): Bullish momentum (+2.78% daily, +7.75% 5D) but positioning caution (net length -10,479). Buy dips toward 62.25 (S1), target 64.50 (R1) and 65.09 (20-day high). Stop below 61.00.
- Gold (GC=F): Stabilizing above pivot (3238.40) after a 5.02% 5D decline. Real yields (2.17%) and dollar (101.00) remain headwinds. Range trade 3225.40 (S1) to 3253.30 (R1); avoid chasing.
- Silver (SI=F): Outperformed gold (+1.48% vs +0.63%). Gold/silver ratio at 98.59 remains elevated. Constructive on relative-value basis; watch 33.1136 (R1) and 32.7136 (S1).
- Copper (HG=F): Range-bound (50.1st percentile) but net length rose (+1,707). Buy near 4.6069 (S1), sell near 4.7194 (R1).
- Natural Gas (NG=F): Flat close (+0.03%) but 9.68% 20D gain and persistent net short (-38,523) create squeeze potential. Watch 3.7266 (R1) and 3.5686 (S1).
- Soybeans (ZS=F): Consolidating near 20-day high (1071.00) in the 91.5th percentile. Constructive but overbought short-term; support at 1066.00 (S1).
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.