1. Core View
On 2025-05-20, the domestic futures market showed a clearly divergent pattern. Top gainers: Crude Oil main contract rose 0.87% to 465.40 CNY/barrel, CSI 300 Index rose 0.58% to 3865.40, Soybean Oil rose 0.49% to 7820 CNY/t, SHFE Gold rose 0.48% to 754.38 CNY/g, and Iron Ore rose 0.28% to 725 CNY/t. Top decliners: Coke led the decline, falling 1.71% to 1407.50 CNY/t, SHFE Zinc fell 1.09% to 22220 CNY/t, Lithium Carbonate fell 0.88% to 60860 CNY/t, SHFE Nickel fell 0.83% to 122870 CNY/t, and Rebar fell 0.59% to 3058 CNY/t.
In terms of the dominant logic, the ferrous complex came under broad pressure, with Coke breaking below the 1400 CNY/t mark and Rebar closing at 3058 CNY/t with open interest rising to 2,160,329 lots, indicating significantly increased long-short divergence. The energy and chemicals sector showed internal divergence, with Crude Oil strengthening while Fuel Oil fell 0.56% to 3556 CNY/t. In precious metals, SHFE Gold stabilized near MA5 (752.72), but remained at a considerable distance from MA20 (781.11), while SHFE Silver edged down 0.21% to 8074 CNY/t.
Today's main risk points: First, continued weakness in the ferrous complex could trigger negative feedback across the supply chain; second, whether the sharp drop in Coke triggers a technical rebound; third, increased market sentiment volatility amid a temporary lack of macro data. Investors are advised to watch open interest changes and key support levels.
2. Overnight Recap
In the domestic night session, SHFE Gold main contract (AU) closed at 754.38 CNY/g, up 0.48%, with volume of 268,945 lots and open interest of 211,353 lots. SHFE Gold found support near MA5 (752.72), but remained overall below MA20 (781.11), with a 20-day high of 836.30 CNY/g and a low of 732.64 CNY/g. SHFE Silver main contract (AG) closed at 8074 CNY/kg, down 0.21%, with volume of 512,126 lots and open interest of 336,223 lots, MA5 at 8102.20 and MA20 at 8185.15.
In the ferrous complex, Rebar main contract (RB) closed at 3058 CNY/t, down 0.59%, with volume of 1,285,345 lots and open interest of 2,160,329 lots. RB has weakened continuously over the past 5 trading days, retreating from the May 14 high of 3127 CNY/t to 3058 CNY/t, with MA5 (3090.80) and MA20 (3089.85) converging. Iron Ore main contract (I) closed at 725 CNY/t, up 0.28%, with volume of 323,225 lots and open interest of 734,150 lots, MA5 at 729.80 and MA20 at 714.48. Coke main contract (J) closed at 1407.50 CNY/t, down sharply 1.71%, with volume of 17,587 lots and open interest of 55,339 lots, with MA5 (1447.00) and MA20 (1507.43) both well above the current price.
In agricultural products, Soybean Meal main contract (M) closed at 2889 CNY/t, down slightly 0.14%, with volume of 1,023,983 lots and open interest of 2,567,545 lots. M has been declining continuously in recent months, retreating from the April 24 high of 3059 CNY/t to 2889 CNY/t, with MA5 (2902.20) and MA20 (2954.25) in a bearish alignment. Soybean Oil main contract (Y) closed at 7820 CNY/t, up 0.49%, with volume of 315,179 lots and open interest of 591,405 lots, with MA5 (7812.00) and MA20 (7801.50) essentially flat.
In energy and chemicals, Crude Oil main contract (SC) closed at 465.40 CNY/barrel, up 0.87%, with volume of 129,178 lots and open interest of 30,310 lots, MA5 at 464.88 and MA20 at 476.89. Fuel Oil main contract (LU) closed at 3556 CNY/t, down 0.56%, with volume of 79,187 lots and open interest of 74,815 lots, MA5 at 3586.60 and MA20 at 3472.75.
Regarding overseas comparisons, overnight international crude oil, precious metals and base metals price data are temporarily unavailable, pending subsequent release.
3. Macro Landscape
On the RMB exchange rate, the latest central parity rate and onshore/offshore spot rate data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.
On price indicators, the latest CPI and PPI data from the National Bureau of Statistics are temporarily unavailable, pending release. The market previously held divergent views on the inflation trajectory, and the impact of subsequent data on monetary policy expectations warrants attention.
On manufacturing sentiment, the latest official and Caixin PMI data are temporarily unavailable, pending release. As a leading indicator, PMI provides important guidance for industrial goods demand expectations.
On central bank operations, the latest open market operations, MLF and LPR quote data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by the People's Bank of China. The market is watching the pace of subsequent liquidity injections and interest rate policy signals.
On real estate and infrastructure policy, recent policy development data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by relevant authorities. Real estate chain-related products (Rebar, Iron Ore, Coke) are relatively sensitive to policy changes and should be closely monitored.
On fiscal policy, the latest special bond issuance and fiscal expenditure data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by the Ministry of Finance.
Overall, against the backdrop of temporarily unavailable macro data, the market lacks clear directional guidance, and commodity price action is driven more by their own fundamentals and capital flows. Investors are advised to watch for disruptions to market sentiment from subsequent data releases.
4. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory
On steel mills, the latest blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate and weekly Rebar output data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by Mysteel. From the futures market data, Rebar main contract closed at 3058 CNY/t with open interest rising to 2,160,329 lots, indicating increased long-short divergence.
On Iron Ore, the latest port inventory, daily port offtake and Australian-Brazilian shipments data are temporarily unavailable, pending release. Iron Ore main contract closed at 725 CNY/t, up 0.28%, with open interest of 734,150 lots, and MA20 (714.48) still below the current price, suggesting short-term support remains.
On coking, the latest coking plant operating rate, Coke inventory and steel mill Coke inventory data are temporarily unavailable, pending release. Coke main contract fell sharply 1.71% to 1407.50 CNY/t, hitting a near-20-day low (20-day low of 1406.00 CNY/t), indicating significant supply chain pressure.
On oil mills, the latest soybean crush volume, Soybean Meal inventory and Soybean Oil inventory data are temporarily unavailable, pending release. Soybean Meal main contract closed at 2889 CNY/t with open interest of 2,567,545 lots, declining continuously in recent months; Soybean Oil main contract closed at 7820 CNY/t, up slightly 0.49%.
On PTA, the latest PTA operating rate, polyester load and social inventory data are temporarily unavailable, pending release.
On ports, the latest Iron Ore port inventory, Crude Oil port inventory and major chemical product port inventory data are temporarily unavailable, pending release.
Overall, supply chain inventory and operating rate data are temporarily unavailable. Investors are advised to watch for weekly data subsequently released by Mysteel, SCI and other institutions to verify the fundamental support for current futures price action.
5. Positioning & Capital Flows
On main contract positioning, the latest top 20 member positioning data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by the exchanges.
From futures open interest changes, Rebar main contract open interest stood at 2,160,329 lots, up from the previous day, indicating increased long-short divergence. Iron Ore main contract open interest stood at 734,150 lots, down slightly from the previous day. Soybean Meal main contract open interest stood at 2,567,545 lots, down slightly from the previous day. Coke main contract open interest stood at 55,339 lots, at a relatively low level.
On volume, Soybean Meal main contract volume was 1,023,983 lots, the most active product of the day; Rebar volume was 1,285,345 lots, Iron Ore volume was 323,225 lots, SHFE Silver volume was 512,126 lots, Rubber volume was 383,323 lots, and Lithium Carbonate volume was 242,276 lots.
On capital flows, the latest overall commodity futures market capital flow data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by Wenhua Finance or Tonghuashun iFinD. Judging from open interest changes, capital divergence in the ferrous complex has increased, capital in the agricultural products sector is relatively stable, and positioning in the precious metals sector fluctuates slightly.
Investors are advised to watch the daily post-close positioning ranking data published by the exchanges to gauge the long-short bias of main capital.
6. Today's Focus
Focus one: Statistics bureau data release. The latest CPI, PPI and industrial value-added data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by the National Bureau of Statistics. If the data beat expectations, it could significantly impact commodity market sentiment.
Focus two: Inventory report release. The latest weekly Rebar, Iron Ore and Coke inventory data are temporarily unavailable, pending release by Mysteel. With the ferrous complex currently weakening continuously, inventory changes will be a key indicator for validating the supply-demand balance.
Focus three: Policy meetings and central bank operations. The latest State Council executive meeting, central bank open market operations and LPR quote data are temporarily unavailable, pending release. The market is watching policy signals for guidance on real estate chain and infrastructure-related products.
In addition, attention is advised on the transmission of international crude oil price trends to the domestic energy and chemicals sector, as well as the impact of US dollar index fluctuations on precious metals.
7. Technical Assessment & Trading Strategies
SHFE Gold (AU): Closed at 754.38 CNY/g, up 0.48%. Pivot at 755.69, S1 at 751.81, R1 at 758.25. MA5 at 752.72, MA20 at 781.11. The current price sits above MA5 but well below MA20, with short-term range-bound consolidation likely to persist. If it holds above 755, a probe into the 758-760 zone is possible; if it breaks below 751.81, a decline toward 745-750 may follow. On the operational side, staying on the sidelines is recommended, awaiting clearer direction.
Rebar (RB): Closed at 3058 CNY/t, down 0.59%. Pivot at 3062.67, S1 at 3045.33, R1 at 3075.33. MA5 at 3090.80, MA20 at 3089.85. The price has broken below both MA5 and MA20, with the short-term trend biased bearish. If it breaks below 3045.33, a further decline toward 3014 (20-day low) is possible; if it rebounds above 3075, a test of the 3090-3100 zone may follow. On the operational side, selling into rallies is recommended, with stop-loss set above 3080.
Soybean Meal (M): Closed at 2889 CNY/t, down marginally 0.14%. Pivot at 2881.67, S1 at 2868.33, R1 at 2902.33. MA5 at 2902.20, MA20 at 2954.25. The price sits below MA5, with moving averages in a bearish alignment. If it breaks below 2868.33, a decline toward 2861 (20-day low) is possible; if it holds above 2900, a rebound toward the 2920-2950 zone may follow. On the operational side, selling into strength is recommended, with stop-loss set above 2920.
8. Cross-Commodity Arbitrage Opportunities
Ferrous spread: On the Rebar-Iron Ore ratio, the RB/I ratio stands at approximately 4.22 (3058/725), within the historically neutral range. Coke-Coking Coal spread data is temporarily unavailable, pending release. It is recommended to monitor changes in steel mill margins for guidance on the Rebar-Iron Ore ratio.
Oils spread: Soybean Oil-Palm Oil spread data is temporarily unavailable, pending release. Soybean Oil main contract closed at 7820 CNY/t, up 0.49%, while Soybean Meal closed at 2889 CNY/t, down marginally 0.14%, with the oil-meal ratio at approximately 2.71. It is recommended to monitor the oil-meal ratio trend; if it continues to widen, going long the oil-meal ratio may be considered.
Calendar spreads: Near-far month spread data across commodities is temporarily unavailable, pending exchange release.
On the basis front: Spot-futures basis data for Rebar, Iron Ore, Soybean Meal and other commodities is temporarily unavailable, pending release by Mysteel and SCI.
Overall, cross-commodity arbitrage opportunities require confirmation pending the release of more data. Investors are advised to watch for spread mean-reversion opportunities and manage position risk.
9. Risk Warnings
1. Macro risk: The latest CPI, PPI, PMI and central bank policy data are temporarily unavailable. If subsequently released data falls short of expectations, it may trigger sentiment swings in the market.
2. Overseas market risk: Overnight international crude oil, precious metals and base metals price data are temporarily unavailable. Sharp moves in overseas markets may transmit to the domestic night session.
3. Technical risk: The ferrous complex continues to weaken, with Coke breaking below the 1400 CNY/t threshold. If Rebar breaks below 3014 CNY/t (20-day low), it may trigger technical selling.
4. Liquidity risk: Open interest in some commodities is at low levels (e.g., Coke at 55,339 lots). Insufficient liquidity may amplify price volatility.
5. Policy risk: Data on property and infrastructure policy developments is temporarily unavailable. Policy changes exceeding expectations may significantly impact related commodities.
10. Key Tracking This Week
Over the next 5 trading days, it is recommended to focus on the following data and events:
1. Statistics Bureau data: CPI, PPI, industrial value-added and fixed asset investment data, pending release.
2. Inventory reports: Mysteel weekly Rebar, Iron Ore and Coke inventory data, pending release.
3. Central bank operations: Open market operations, MLF rollover and LPR quotes, pending release by the People's Bank of China.
4. Overseas data: U.S. crude oil inventories, Eurozone PMI and Fed officials' speeches, pending release.
5. Policy meetings: State Council executive meetings and relevant ministry press conferences, pending release.
Investors are advised to closely monitor the above data and events for disturbances to market sentiment, and to adjust position structures in a timely manner.
Disclaimer:
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.