I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-05-20, SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 77,540.00/t (close), down 0.2573% on the day, with volume of 66,667 lots and open interest of 166,058 lots. Over the past five trading sessions, prices have stepped lower from CNY 78,940.00/t on May 14 (close, up 1.3611% that day) to CNY 77,870.00 on May 15, CNY 77,814.00 on May 16, CNY 77,820.00 on May 19, and CNY 77,540.00 on May 20, forming a short-term structure of lower highs.
On moving averages, MA5 stood at CNY 78,062.00/t and MA20 at CNY 77,626.00/t on May 20. The close of 77,540.00 sits roughly CNY 522 below MA5 and about CNY 86 below MA20, indicating that the short-term MA has flipped from support to resistance, though price remains tightly hugging MA20 and no decisive breakdown has formed. The 20-day high H20 is CNY 79,090.00/t and the 20-day low L20 is CNY 75,550.00/t; the current price sits in the upper-middle portion of the 20-day range (approximately (77,540−75,550)/(79,090−75,550) ≈ 58.5th percentile).
On pivot levels, the May 20 pivot P = 77,743.33, first resistance R1 = 77,976.67, and first support S1 = 77,306.67. The close of 77,540.00 lies between P and S1, internally consistent: 77,540.00 < 77,743.33 < 77,976.67, and 77,540.00 > 77,306.67, indicating price is below the pivot but above first support — a weak consolidation zone.
Against the international benchmark, HG=F closed at USD 4.6195/lb (close), down 0.30%, with a 5-day change of −1.32% and a 20-day change of −5.15%; ATR is 0.1074, continuing to contract from 0.1269 on May 19 and 0.1283 on May 16, pointing to declining volatility. HG=F pivot P = 4.6163, R1 = 4.6436, S1 = 4.5921; the close of 4.6195 is slightly above P, showing mild divergence from the weak onshore market.
On technical indicators, RSI, MACD, weekly and monthly data are pending update; no quantitative readings can be provided yet. Judging purely from price versus moving averages, short-term momentum is bearish, but MA20 and S1 (77,306.67) form the first line of defense below; a daily close below 77,306.67 would target the 20-day low of 75,550.00 next, while a reclaim of MA5 (78,062.00) would open a retracement toward R1 (77,976.67) and potentially the 20-day high of 79,090.00.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the USD, this dataset provides no US dollar index, Treasury yields, or inflation readings; related quantitative data are pending update. Judging from HG=F's 20-day change of −5.15% and 5-day change of −1.32%, offshore copper has trended lower over the past month; a stronger dollar or higher real rates would weigh on USD-denominated copper, while easing rate expectations could open a rebound window. The above is scenario-based reasoning; specific rate and FX data are pending update.
On inventories and central-bank gold buying, this dataset contains no SHFE, LME, or COMEX copper stocks, nor PBoC gold-purchase data; inventory and official-reserve data are pending update. It should be noted that as an industrial metal, copper's price drivers center on power-grid, property, new-energy, and manufacturing demand; central-bank gold buying has limited direct transmission to copper and affects it mainly indirectly via macro-liquidity expectations.
On ETF and fund flows, the dataset provides no copper ETF holdings changes; ETF data are pending update.
On geopolitics, the dataset provides no geopolitical event information; related news is pending update. From price behavior, after SHFE Copper rose 1.3611% on May 14, it fell for three consecutive sessions — down 0.8025% on May 15, 0.3189% on May 16, 0.6257% on May 19, and 0.2573% on May 20 — with declines narrowing day by day, perhaps reflecting marginally fading selling pressure; however, lacking fundamental corroboration, this should not be over-interpreted.
Overall, the available data are mainly price, open interest, and cross-market ratios; macro, inventory, ETF, and geopolitical dimensions are all pending update. In the absence of fundamental data, trading logic should rely more on technical levels and positioning structure than on fundamental narratives.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest fell from 193,911 lots on May 14 to 166,058 lots on May 20, a cumulative drop of 27,853 lots over five sessions, or about 14.4%. Over the same period, volume fell from 112,380 lots on May 14 to 66,667 lots on May 20; volume and open interest declined together, showing reduced participation and a market entering a de-risking, wait-and-see mode. Falling open interest alongside slightly weaker prices typically points to active long liquidation rather than aggressive short building.
On international COT positioning (comparative basis), the latest report (data labeled 2026-09-15) shows total OI = 289,463 lots, longs L = 83,704 lots, shorts S = 18,598 lots, net long net = 65,106 lots, with a weekly change Δ = −17,048 lots. The prior week (2026-09-08) net long was 82,154 lots, Δ = +9,272; the week before (2026-09-01) net long 72,882 lots, Δ = −3,389; 2026-08-25 net long 76,271 lots, Δ = −2,377. The latest net long fell sharply by 17,048 lots, the largest single-week drop in four weeks, with clear long-unwinding characteristics. Note that the COT date is inconsistent with the report date; it is cited only as a comparative reference for offshore positioning structure, and the exact methodology is pending confirmation.
On crowding, the latest COT longs of 83,704 lots versus shorts of 18,598 lots imply a long/short ratio of about 4.50:1, with net longs at roughly 22.5% of total OI (65,106/289,463), down about 5.1 percentage points from the prior week's 27.6% (82,154/297,491), indicating some easing of crowding.
On options and volatility, HG=F ATR fell from 0.1283 on May 16 to 0.1074 on May 20, with volatility declining; domestic options implied-volatility data are pending update. In a volatility-contraction environment, range strategies are preferable to trend strategies.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
This dataset provides no gold, silver, or crude prices; gold/silver ratio, oil/gold ratio, copper/gold ratio, and their historical percentiles are pending update. Only limited observation of copper's own onshore-offshore ratio is possible:
SHFE Copper main continuous closed at CNY 77,540.00/t on May 20, while HG=F closed the same day at USD 4.6195/lb. Using 1 tonne ≈ 2,204.62 lb, HG=F corresponds to roughly USD 10,183.4/t (4.6195 × 2,204.62); converted at the central parity rate, the onshore-offshore spread direction depends on the FX rate used, and specific FX data are pending update, so the onshore-offshore ratio percentile is not calculated for now.
Comparing moves, SHFE Copper fell 0.2573% on May 20 while HG=F fell 0.30% the same day — similar declines onshore and offshore; but over 5 days HG=F is −1.32% and over 20 days −5.15%, with the offshore medium-term decline exceeding the onshore performance over the same span (onshore 5-day from 78,940.00 to 77,540.00, about −1.77%), indicating differing medium-term rhythms between the two markets; cross-market arbitrage windows need further confirmation with FX and premium/discount data, which are pending update.
The copper/gold ratio, as a gauge of growth expectations versus risk appetite, cannot be calculated this time due to missing gold prices and is pending update. If the copper/gold ratio later sits at a low historical percentile, it typically points to weak growth expectations; if at a high percentile, it signals reflation trades dominating. No conclusion is available for now.
V. Sentiment
In this dataset, the past-48h domestic headlines (market=CN, asset=COPPER) are N/A; domestic sentiment scores and headline bias data are pending update. On the international side, HG=F chPos (position-change percentage basis) was 36.80% on May 20, 39.80% on May 19, 23.00% on May 16, 42.10% on May 15, and 34.90% on May 14; the indicator fluctuated within a 23.00%–42.10% band, with the latest reading of 36.80% at the mid-range, showing no one-sided extreme in sentiment.
In the absence of domestic sentiment data, the sentiment assessment relies on price and positioning behavior: three consecutive down days with narrowing declines (−0.8025% → −0.3189% → −0.6257% → −0.2573%), combined with continuously falling open interest, suggests cautious waiting rather than panic selling. Sentiment-monitoring conclusions will be updated once data are supplemented.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
This data segment does not provide SHFE Copper seasonal statistics, year-over-year distribution for the past 10 years, or monthly effect data; quantitative conclusions on historical statistical patterns are pending an update.
The limited information available for reference is as follows: the current 20-day range is 75,550.00 to 79,090.00 CNY/t, with an amplitude of CNY 3,540. Based on the May 20 close of 77,540.00, the price sits at roughly the 58.5th percentile of the range. If the historical same-period (late May) volatility range converges, the upper bound of 79,090.00 and the lower bound of 75,550.00 may serve as statistical reference boundaries; if a trending breakout occurred in the historical same period, it would need to be confirmed against inventories and macro data. The above are scenario-based statements; specific seasonal data are pending an update.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments:
1. The close of 77,540.00 remains about CNY 1,990 above the 20-day low of 75,550.00; the mid-to-upper structure of the 20-day range is intact;
2. The MA20 is 77,626.00, with price only CNY 86 below this moving average; medium-term moving-average support has not been effectively lost;
3. The May 20 decline of 0.2573% narrowed markedly versus 0.8025% on May 15, indicating marginal easing of selling pressure;
4. HG=F closed at 4.6195, above its pivot P = 4.6163; the offshore market did not weaken in tandem, leaving room for an onshore-offshore repair.
Bearish arguments:
1. The close of 77,540.00 is about CNY 522 below the MA5 (78,062.00), with clear short-term moving-average resistance;
2. Open interest fell from 193,911 lots (May 14) to 166,058 lots (May 20); capital outflow is unfavorable for a rebound;
3. The latest COT net long stands at 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots week-over-week, the largest long liquidation on the international side in four weeks;
4. The close of 77,540.00 is below the pivot P = 77,743.33 and approaching S1 = 77,306.67; if breached, the next downside reference is the 20-day low of 75,550.00.
Short- vs medium-term balance of forces: In the short term (1–5 days), bears hold a slight edge, with price below the MA5 and the pivot; over the medium term (20-day horizon), longs and bears are near equilibrium, with price still in the mid-to-upper part of the 20-day range and close to the MA20. If the daily close holds above the MA20 (77,626.00) and reclaims P (77,743.33), short-term momentum would shift to the bulls; if the daily close breaks below S1 (77,306.67), bearish pressure would intensify, with the next target at 75,550.00.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (range dip-buying, LONG): Entry reference near 77,306.67 (S1); stop-loss reference 76,950 (about 0.46% below S1); target reference 77,976.67 (R1); horizon 1–5 trading days; position size recommended at no more than 15% of total capital; conviction 6. Trigger condition: price retests S1 without breaking it and shows stabilization signals; if the daily close falls below 76,950, the strategy is invalidated and the position exited.
Strategy 2 (rebound selling, SHORT): Entry reference near 78,062.00 (MA5); stop-loss reference 78,400 (about 0.43% above the MA5); target reference 77,306.67 (S1); horizon 1–5 trading days; position size recommended at no more than 15% of total capital; conviction 6. Trigger condition: price rebounds to the MA5 and meets resistance; if the daily close stands above 78,400, the strategy is invalidated and the position exited.
Key risk management points: the current ATR (HG=F basis) is 0.1074 and continues to converge, so stop-losses should not be set too wide; domestic open interest keeps declining and liquidity is marginally weakening, so individual position sizes should be controlled; if price effectively breaks above the 20-day high of 79,090.00 or below the 20-day low of 75,550.00, the range strategy should switch to a trend-following framework. All strategies are scenario-based projections and do not constitute a certainty commitment.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days are N/A; specific events are pending an update. Routine items to keep tracking include: the SHFE Copper inventory weekly report, LME and COMEX copper inventory changes, domestic spot premium/discount, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the next COT positioning update for the international market. Specific dates and expected values for these events will be confirmed once the data source is supplemented.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.