I. Price Action & Technicals
As of the 2025-05-30 close, the Rebar (SHFE.RB) main continuous contract settled at 2961.00 CNY/t, with a daily change of -0.3366%, volume of 1549422 lots, and open interest of 2296076 lots. The daily pivot P was 2961.67, first resistance R1 at 2977.33, and first support S1 at 2945.33. Over the past 5 trading sessions: 26 May closed at 3004.00 CNY/t (-1.6694%), 27 May closed at 2980.00 CNY/t (-1.2264%), 28 May closed at 2964.00 CNY/t (-0.7700%), 29 May closed at 2978.00 CNY/t (+0.4723%), and 30 May closed at 2961.00 CNY/t (-0.3366%). Prices have declined cumulatively since 26 May, closing below the 3000 CNY/t round-number threshold for three consecutive trading sessions, with a clear downward shift in the center of gravity.
The moving average system is in a bearish alignment. On 30 May, MA5 was 2977.40, MA20 was 3050.75, and the close of 2961.00 was approximately 16.40 CNY/t below MA5 and approximately 89.75 CNY/t below MA20, with both short- and medium-term moving averages acting as overhead resistance. The 20-day high H20 was 3136.00, and the 20-day low L20 was 2946.00. The current price sits near the lower edge of the 20-day range, just 15.00 CNY/t from the 20-day low and 175.00 CNY/t from the 20-day high, reflecting a weak range.
On the daily timeframe, 26 May to 30 May formed a continuously descending short-term downtrend channel; the 29 May rebound failed to break the prior day's high, and 30 May closed lower again, indicating insufficient rebound momentum. On the weekly timeframe, this week's close was below last week's; if MA20 (3050.75) is taken as the medium-term bull-bear line, the weekly chart remains in a correction pattern. Monthly timeframe data is pending update, so a monthly moving-average judgment cannot be provided.
On indicators, RSI, MACD, and ATR data are pending update, so specific values and divergence judgments cannot be provided. Based solely on the relationship between price and moving averages, short-term momentum is bearish, but the 30 May decline narrowed to -0.3366%, and the close of 2961.00 was above the day's S1 (2945.33), indicating some absorption in the 2945–2946 area. On pivots and key levels, overhead resistance is, in order, R1 (2977.33), MA5 (2977.40), the 3000 CNY/t round-number threshold, and MA20 (3050.75); downside support is, in order, S1 (2945.33), the 20-day low L20 (2946.00), and the 2940 CNY/t line. If the price holds above P (2961.67) and recovers R1 (2977.33), a short-term repair toward 3000 CNY/t is possible; if it breaks below S1 (2945.33) and L20 (2946.00), downside space opens, and the next support must be dynamically assessed in conjunction with volume and open interest changes.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates, relevant domestic rate data is pending update, so the impact of real rates on Rebar valuation cannot be quantitatively assessed. The US dollar index and inflation data are pending update, so the transmission of a stronger or weaker dollar to CNY-denominated domestic steel prices cannot be judged. From a logical framework perspective, Rebar, as a domestically demand-priced product, is more influenced by domestic property, infrastructure, and manufacturing demand, while overseas dollar and inflation factors transmit more indirectly through raw material inputs such as Iron Ore. If the dollar strengthens and commodities broadly come under pressure, the Rebar cost side may shift lower; if domestic growth-stabilization policy is stepped up, improved demand expectations may support prices.
On inventories, Rebar social inventory and mill inventory data are pending update, so specific increases or decreases cannot be provided. Inventory is the core indicator for judging the tightness of supply and demand: if inventories continue to destock, apparent consumption strengthens and downside support for prices increases; if inventories accumulate, supply pressure rises and rebounds are capped. The current price is at the lower edge of the 20-day range; if subsequent inventory data shows better-than-expected destocking, short covering may be triggered; if inventories accumulate, the 2946 CNY/t support faces a test.
On central bank gold purchases and ETFs, these two indicators mainly affect precious metals and have limited direct transmission to Rebar; data is pending update. On geopolitics, the relevant domestic headlines over the past 48h are N/A, so the impact of geopolitical events on steel market sentiment cannot be assessed. If geopolitical risk escalates and raises energy and shipping costs, steel may be indirectly affected through the cost side; if geopolitics eases, the risk premium falls and prices return to supply-demand fundamentals.
Overall, Rebar fundamental drivers currently lack verifiable quantitative data, and prices are more dominated by technicals and flows. If subsequent macro data, inventory data, and policy signals form a resonance, a directional move may begin; if the data vacuum persists, range-bound trading is more likely.
III. Positioning Structure & Capital Flows
On open interest, SHFE.RB main continuous open interest on 30 May was 2296076 lots, down 81244 lots from 2377320 lots on 29 May, down 145312 lots from 2441388 lots on 28 May, down 103903 lots from 2399979 lots on 27 May, and down 53069 lots from 2349145 lots on 26 May. Open interest has declined continuously, indicating capital outflow, with both longs and shorts reducing positions.
On volume, 30 May volume was 1549422 lots, down 395634 lots from 1945056 lots on 29 May, and up 215471 lots from 1333951 lots on 28 May. After the volume-backed rebound on 29 May, 30 May saw a low-volume decline; the volume-price combination indicates the rebound lacked sustainability, but the decline also did not see panic selling volume.
COT classification data is pending update, so specific changes in commercial positions, non-commercial positions, and retail positions cannot be provided. Crowding indicators are pending update, so the degree of long or short crowding cannot be quantified. Options and volatility data are pending update, so implied volatility and skew cannot be provided.
From the relationship between positioning and price, prices declined cumulatively from 26 May to 30 May while open interest fell in tandem, constituting a deleveraging downtrend with both long liquidation and short covering. If open interest subsequently stops falling and rebounds while prices stabilize, a new long-short equilibrium may form; if open interest continues to decline and prices break below 2946 CNY/t, stop-loss orders may be triggered, accelerating the downside.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, and copper-gold ratio data are pending update, so specific ratios and historical percentiles cannot be provided. Rebar's direct correlation with the above ratios is weak, but transmission can occur indirectly through macro risk appetite and overall industrial commodity valuation.
From a logical framework perspective, if the copper-gold ratio strengthens, it typically reflects improved industrial demand expectations, which is bullish for Rebar; if the oil-gold ratio strengthens, it reflects rising inflation expectations, which may support steel prices through the cost side; if the gold-silver ratio strengthens, it reflects rising risk-aversion sentiment, which is bearish for industrial commodities. All the above data are currently pending update and cannot be verified.
Rebar-to-Iron Ore ratio and Rebar-to-Hot-Rolled Coil ratio data are pending update, so mill profitability and inter-product relative strength cannot be provided. If mill profitability compresses, production cuts may be triggered, supporting Rebar prices; if profitability expands, supply increases and prices come under pressure.
Cross-asset relative value analysis currently lacks verifiable data; it is recommended to use price and positioning technical signals as the primary reference and supplement once data is updated.
V. Sentiment
The relevant domestic headlines over the past 48h (market=CN, asset=STEEL) are N/A, so news tone and sentiment scores cannot be provided. Market sentiment indicators are pending update, so long-short sentiment cannot be quantified.
Inferring from price action, after consecutive declines from 26 May to 30 May, a 0.4723% rebound occurred on 29 May but failed to extend on 30 May, indicating cautious market sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase gains. If policy or demand-side bullish news subsequently emerges, sentiment may repair; if bearish news intensifies, sentiment may weaken further.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
Rebar seasonality patterns and data for the same period over the past 10 years are pending update, so specific statistical conclusions cannot be provided. From a general seasonal framework, late May to June typically falls in the plum rain season, marginal construction demand weakens, and the probability of price pressure is relatively high; however, if policy support intensifies or inventories are low, the off-season may not be weak. Current data is missing and cannot be verified.
Historical volatility and range statistics are pending update, so the probability of a breakout from the 2946–3136 range cannot be provided. It is recommended to supplement seasonal judgments once data is updated, in conjunction with the distribution of gains and losses for the same period over the past 10 years and inventory changes.
VII. Long-Short Game Simulation
Bullish arguments: First, the May 30 close of 2961.00 was above that day's S1 (2945.33), and the 20-day low L20 was 2946.00, with technical support in the 2945–2946 area; second, the May 30 decline narrowed to -0.3366%, significantly slower than the -1.6694% on May 26, indicating weakening bearish momentum; third, open interest has been declining continuously, and short covering could drive a price rebound; fourth, if the price holds above the pivot P (2961.67) and recovers R1 (2977.33), a short-term recovery toward 3000 CNY/t is likely.
Bearish arguments: First, the close of 2961.00 was below MA5 (2977.40) and MA20 (3050.75), with moving averages in a bearish alignment; second, three consecutive trading days closed below 3000 CNY/t, with the round-number level lost after being regained, reflecting insufficient market confidence; third, open interest fell by 145312 lots (May 28 to May 30), with capital outflow and a lack of bullish confluence; fourth, the 20-day high of 3136.00 and the 20-day low of 2946.00 form a descending box, and if 2946.00 is breached, downside space opens up.
Short- to medium-term balance of power: In the short term (1–5 days), bears hold a slight advantage, but the 2945–2946 support area may trigger a technical rebound; in the medium term (1–4 weeks), if MA20 (3050.75) cannot be recovered, the correction pattern will persist. If inventory destocking or policy tailwinds emerge, bulls may counterattack; if demand weakens or inventories accumulate, bears may continue to press.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (Buy the Dip in the Range): If the price pulls back to the S1 (2945.33) to L20 (2946.00) area and stabilizes, initiate a light long position, with entry reference 2946–2950 CNY/t, stop-loss reference below 2920 CNY/t, target reference R1 (2977.33) to 3000 CNY/t, horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 6.
Strategy Two (Sell the Rebound): If the price rebounds to the R1 (2977.33) to MA5 (2977.40) area and meets resistance, initiate a light short position, with entry reference 2977–2985 CNY/t, stop-loss reference above 3005 CNY/t, target reference S1 (2945.33) to 2946 CNY/t, horizon 1–5 trading days, position size no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 6.
Risk Management: Strict stop-loss, with single-trade loss not exceeding 1% of total capital; if the price breaks above 3000 CNY/t or below 2920 CNY/t, reassess the trend; monitor changes in open interest and volume, and if a key level is broken with heavy volume, adjust the strategy accordingly.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is pending update, with no known events. Recommended focus: weekly Rebar inventory data, steel mill operating rates, domestic macro policy signals, the US dollar index, and overseas commodity trends. If data is released, adjust the strategy based on the difference between actual values and expectations.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.