I. Price Action & Technicals
As of 2025-06-03, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at 77650.00 CNY/t, with an intraday change of -0.1286%, volume of 81917 lots, and open interest of 182260 lots. Over the past 5 trading sessions, the price oscillated downward from 77900.00 CNY/t on 2025-05-27, briefly rebounding to 78130.00 CNY/t on 2025-05-29, then closing lower for two consecutive sessions, at 77600.00 CNY/t on 2025-05-30 and 77650.00 CNY/t on 2025-06-03, with the overall center of gravity shifting slightly lower.
On the moving average system, the MA5 on 2025-06-03 was 77830.00 CNY/t, the MA20 was 77903.00 CNY/t, and the close of 77650.00 CNY/t was below both, with both short-term and medium-term moving averages acting as overhead resistance. The 20-day high H20 was 79090.00 CNY/t, and the 20-day low L20 was 77030.00 CNY/t, with the current price sitting at the lower-middle edge of the range. The pivot point P was 77763.33 CNY/t, the first resistance R1 was 78136.67 CNY/t, and the first support S1 was 77276.67 CNY/t. If the price fails to reclaim the MA20, the rangebound-to-weak pattern may persist; if it breaks below S1, it may test the L20 support.
On the international comparison, HG=F closed at 4.8095 USD/lb on 2025-06-03, down 0.52%, but its 5-day gain was 2.11% and its 20-day gain was 3.32%, indicating that international copper prices have recently outperformed the domestic market. HG=F's pivot P was 4.8045, R1 was 4.8440, S1 was 4.7700, and the ATR was 0.1019, with volatility at a moderate level. SHFE Copper has not followed the rally in tandem, and the internal-external price spread structure warrants attention.
At the technical indicator level, the data does not provide specific RSI or MACD values, so overbought/oversold conditions cannot be quantified at this time. However, inferring from the price-to-moving-average relationship and changes in open interest, short-term momentum is neutral, and trend strength is limited. The ATR (international market) of 0.1019 USD/lb corresponds to a daily average amplitude of approximately 1.5%; if SHFE Copper is estimated at a similar volatility, intraday fluctuations in the hundreds of CNY range would be normal.
On key levels, overhead resistance is, in order, the MA5 (77830), MA20 (77903), R1 (78136.67), and H20 (79090); downside support is, in order, S1 (77276.67) and L20 (77030). If the price stands above the MA20 and breaks through R1, a short-term strengthening is possible; if it breaks below S1, the risk of an accelerated decline must be watched.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, the data does not provide interest rate, US dollar index, or inflation data for 2025-06-03, so the related analysis is unavailable at this time. However, judging from the performance of international copper HG=F, which rose 2.11% over the past 5 days and 3.32% over the past 20 days, overseas macro sentiment may have some support. SHFE Copper's relatively lackluster performance over the same period may reflect a divergence in internal and external macro expectations.
Regarding inventories and central bank gold purchases, the data does not provide copper visible inventory or central bank gold purchase data, so quantitative analysis cannot be conducted. As an industrial metal, copper's inventory changes typically have a direct impact on prices, but with this data missing, an assessment is not possible at this time.
Regarding ETFs and fund flows, the data does not provide changes in copper ETF holdings, so the direction of allocation-type capital cannot be determined at this time.
Regarding geopolitical factors, the data does not provide information on related events, so the disturbance of geopolitical risk to copper prices cannot be assessed at this time.
Overall, the information on fundamental drivers in this data package is limited, and one can only indirectly infer from international price performance that overseas demand expectations or macro sentiment are somewhat warm. SHFE Copper's weak performance may be related to a phase of loose domestic supply and demand or exchange rate factors, but there is a lack of direct data verification. If inventory data or macro indicators are updated subsequently, the fundamental direction will need to be reassessed.
III. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows
On SHFE Copper open interest, it was 182260 lots on 2025-06-03, an increase of 9266 lots from 172994 lots on 2025-05-30, and a cumulative increase of 21253 lots from 161007 lots on 2025-05-27. Open interest rising continuously while prices oscillate lower suggests short-side capital entering or hedging activity increasing, with long-short divergence widening.
On the international COT positioning (for reference), the latest reporting period (2026-09-15) showed total open interest OI of 289463 lots, long positions L of 83704 lots, short positions S of 18598 lots, and net long net of 65106 lots, a decrease of 17048 lots from the previous reading. The prior week (2026-09-08) showed net long of 82154 lots, an increase of 9272 lots week-on-week. Net long has declined for two consecutive weeks, indicating that long crowding has eased somewhat, but the absolute level remains elevated.
Note that the COT data date is 2026, which is misaligned in time with the current 2025-06-03, and can only serve as a long-term reference for international positioning structure, and should not be directly mapped onto current SHFE Copper.
Regarding options and volatility, the data does not provide domestic copper option implied volatility or positioning distribution, so analysis is not possible at this time. The ATR of international HG=F is 0.1019, with moderate volatility and no extreme expansion.
Comprehensive judgment on fund flows: domestic open interest rising while prices weaken suggests a bearish short-term funding backdrop; international net long declining but still at a high absolute level, and if position reduction continues, it could pressure international copper prices and transmit to SHFE Copper through internal-external linkage.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data does not provide specific values or percentile data for the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, or copper-gold ratio, so quantitative relative value analysis cannot be conducted.
From the available data, HG=F rose 3.32% over the past 20 days, outperforming SHFE Copper (which over the same period moved from 77900 on 2025-05-27 to 77650 on 2025-06-03, a cumulative slight decline of 0.32%). From a copper-gold ratio perspective, gold price data is lacking, so it cannot be calculated.
Cross-asset relative value analysis is treated as “data pending update” for now. If gold, crude oil, and US dollar index data are supplemented subsequently, copper's relative valuation level can be assessed from the copper-gold ratio, oil-gold ratio, and other angles. At present, it can only be noted that international copper prices are relatively strong while domestic copper prices are relatively weak, and the internal-external ratio (SHFE Copper/LME Copper or SHFE Copper/COMEX Copper) may be at a low level, but with a lack of direct exchange rate and conversion data, it cannot be precisely calculated.
V. Sentiment Monitoring
Over the past 48h, domestic related headlines (market=CN, asset=COPPER) data is N/A, with no available sentiment information. The sentiment score cannot be calculated and is marked as “data pending update” for now.
Inferring indirectly from price behavior, SHFE Copper open interest rising while prices edge lower suggests market sentiment may be cautious. International HG=F, after surging 3.91% on 2025-06-02, pulled back 0.52% on 2025-06-03, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure. If there is no major macro or industry news subsequently, sentiment may remain neutral-to-weak.
VI. Historical Statistics
The data does not provide SHFE Copper seasonality patterns or performance over the same period in the past 10 years, so historical statistical comparison cannot be conducted.
From the limited price series, over the 5 trading sessions from 2025-05-27 to 2025-06-03, SHFE Copper closes were 77900, 77870, 78130, 77600, and 77650, with a mean of approximately 77830 and a standard deviation of approximately 200 CNY/t, indicating relatively moderate volatility. The same period historically (early June) is typically in the transition from the traditional consumption off-season to the peak season, but with a lack of data verification, this will not be elaborated on for now.
The historical statistics section is treated as “data pending update” for now. If seasonal data is supplemented subsequently, it can be verified from the angles of the inventory cycle and downstream operating rates.
VII. Long-Short Game Analysis
Bullish factors:
1. International HG=F rose 2.11% over the past 5 days and 3.32% over the past 20 days; strong overseas copper prices may transmit to the domestic market through the relative value effect.
2. SHFE Copper open interest has continued to increase; if this is short hedging activity, then once prices rebound, it could trigger short covering.
3. The price remains within the 20-day range, and the L20 (77030) support has not yet been broken, with the lower edge of the range potentially attracting buying.
4. The pivot P (77763.33) is close to the closing price; if it stands above P and breaks through R1 (78136.67), the technical picture turns bullish.
Bearish factors:
1. The closing price is below the MA5 (77830) and MA20 (77903), with the moving average system providing clear resistance.
2. Open interest rising while prices fall suggests short-side capital actively entering or hedging pressure increasing.
3. International COT net long decreased by 17048 lots from the previous reading; easing long crowding may be accompanied by further position reduction.
4. Domestic sentiment and fundamental data are missing, the market lacks bullish catalysts, and sentiment is cautious.
Short-to-medium-term balance of forces: in the short term (1-5 days), bears have a slight edge, as the price is below the moving averages and open interest is rising; in the medium term (1-4 weeks), the L20 support and MA20 breakout need to be watched. If L20 is broken, bearish forces strengthen; if the price stands above the MA20, bulls may counterattack.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (Short-Term Range Trading): If price pulls back and stabilizes near S1 (77276.67), a light long position may be initiated, with entry reference at 77280, stop-loss reference at 77030 (below L20), target reference at 78130 (near R1), horizon 1-5 days, position size not exceeding 10% of total capital, conviction 6.
Strategy 2 (Breakout Follow-Through): If price effectively breaks above R1 (78136.67) and holds, a trend-following long may be established, with entry reference at 78150, stop-loss reference at 77830 (below MA5), target reference at 79090 (H20), horizon 1-2 weeks, position size not exceeding 15% of total capital, conviction 7.
Risk Management: Strictly set stop-losses to avoid a single-trade loss exceeding 2% of total capital. If price breaks below L20 (77030), long strategies should be suspended and shifted to a wait-and-see stance. If open interest continues to build while price stalls, be alert to downside risk.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is N/A, with no known events. It is recommended to monitor daily changes in SHFE Copper open interest and the international session HG=F trend; if major macro data or industry news emerges, promptly assess the impact on copper prices.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.