I. Price Action & Technicals
As of 2025-06-04, the SHFE Silver main continuous contract closed at 8,463.00 CNY/kg, with a daily change of 0.0473%, closing essentially flat, but the prior trading day (2025-06-03) saw a single-day surge of 2.8460%, constituting the most significant price event in the recent period. Looking at the past 5-day sequence, prices consolidated in a narrow range of 8,218–8,225 CNY/kg from May 28 to May 30, closing at 8,218.00 CNY/kg on May 30, jumping to 8,456.00 CNY/kg on June 3, and further closing at 8,463.00 CNY/kg on June 4, forming a clear step-wise upward shift.
On the moving average system, the June 4 MA5 stood at 8,317.20 CNY/kg and MA20 at 8,223.30 CNY/kg. The close of 8,463.00 CNY/kg was simultaneously above both MA5 and MA20, with MA5 above MA20, showing the early formation of a bullish alignment in the short-term moving averages. Compared with May 28, when MA5 was 8,257.20 and MA20 was 8,195.25, the moving averages have shifted higher overall, lifting the trend's center of gravity.
On key levels, the 20-day high H20 was 8,522.00 CNY/kg and the 20-day low L20 was 7,944.00 CNY/kg. The current price sits near the upper edge of the 20-day range, only about 59 CNY/kg (roughly 0.70%) from the 20-day high. The pivot P was 8,470.67 CNY/kg, slightly above the close, with first resistance R1 at 8,490.33 CNY/kg and first support S1 at 8,443.33 CNY/kg, indicating that the short-term bull-bear dividing line is concentrated in the 8,443–8,490 range.
On volume and open interest, June 4 saw volume of 449,279 lots and open interest of 379,627 lots; June 3 saw volume of 547,586 lots and open interest of 370,146 lots; while May 30 saw volume of 658,243 lots and open interest of 334,026 lots. Open interest rose from 334,026 lots on May 30 to 379,627 lots on June 4, a cumulative increase of approximately 45,601 lots, which, combined with the price advance, constitutes an open interest build on rising prices, indicating increased capital participation.
On volatility, the international SI=F ATR was 0.5846 USD/oz (2025-06-04), down from 0.6720 on June 2 but still above the 0.6004 on May 29, indicating that the volatility center remains at an elevated level. Raw values for indicators such as RSI and MACD were not provided in the data and are pending update, but judging from the two consecutive days of sharp price gains and the close above the moving averages, short-cycle momentum is on the strong side, and a technical pullback after overbought conditions warrants caution.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On the macro rates and dollar dimension, this report's data section does not provide specific values for the dollar index, US Treasury yields, or real interest rates; the relevant quantitative data is pending update. However, indirect observation is possible through the performance of the international silver price SI=F: on June 2, SI=F rose 5.08% in a single day to close at 34.5630 USD/oz; on June 3, it edged down 0.17% to 34.5030; on June 4, it closed at 34.5190 USD/oz, up 0.05%, with a 5-day gain of 4.60% and a 20-day gain of 4.25%. Silver is highly sensitive to macro liquidity expectations and the direction of the dollar; if the dollar weakens or real rates decline, the precious metals complex benefits as a whole; if rate expectations turn hawkish again, silver's upside is constrained.
On the inflation and policy expectations dimension, the data section does not provide inflation readings such as CPI or PCE; the data is pending update. Silver possesses the dual attributes of a precious metal and an industrial metal, and its price is sensitive to both inflation expectations and manufacturing activity, so in the absence of inflation data, one should not over-extrapolate a one-sided driver.
On the inventory and central bank gold purchases dimension, the data section does not provide SHFE silver inventories, COMEX inventories, or central bank gold purchase data; the relevant data is pending update. It should be noted that central bank gold purchases primarily affect gold, and their transmission to silver is more indirect, operating through the gold-silver ratio and sector sentiment; if gold remains strong, silver often has catch-up momentum.
On the ETF and investment demand dimension, the data section does not provide changes in global silver ETF holdings; the data is pending update. ETF flows are key to gauging the stance of medium- to long-term allocation capital; if sustained net inflows subsequently appear, they would provide medium-term support to prices; if they turn to net outflows, the assessment of trend strength should be downgraded.
On the geopolitical dimension, the data section does not provide domestic related headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER returned N/A), so the sentiment shock cannot be quantified, and the relevant event-driven data is pending update. Overall, this round of SHFE silver gains is more a reflection of endogenous drivers from price and open interest, and the quantitative evidence for exogenous fundamental variables remains incomplete.
III. Positioning & Capital Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE silver main continuous open interest fell from 350,276 lots on May 28 to 334,026 lots on May 30, then rebounded to 370,146 lots on June 3 and further rose to 379,627 lots on June 4. Open interest first fell and then rose, and the open interest build accompanied the price jump, indicating that the advance since June 3 was driven by new capital rather than mere short covering. On volume, June 3 volume of 547,586 lots was down from 658,243 lots on May 30, and June 4 fell further to 449,279 lots; with prices holding steady while volume declined, this shows that the willingness to chase highs has marginally weakened in the short term.
On international COT positioning, the most recent 4-week records provided in the data section are: 2026-09-15 OI=103,745, L=20,205, S=7,081, net=13,124, Δ=-1,262; 2026-09-08 OI=103,250, L=21,148, S=6,762, net=14,386, Δ=1,788; 2026-09-01 OI=104,362, L=19,156, S=6,558, net=12,598, Δ=-1,475; 2026-08-25 OI=113,801, L=21,421, S=7,348, net=14,073, Δ=2,378. It must be specifically noted that the date convention for the above COT records is 2026, which is inconsistent with this report's data cutoff date of 2025-06-04; this is a comparative convention labeled within the data section, and caution must be exercised when citing it, as it cannot be directly equated with the current weekly positioning.
Looking at this dataset itself, net longs fluctuated within the 12,598–14,386 lot range, with the latest reading at net=13,124 lots and Δ=-1,262 lots, as longs decreased and shorts increased, and speculative net longs marginally declined. Total open interest OI fell from 113,801 lots to 103,745 lots, indicating an overall contraction in market participation. If this convention is taken as a reference for international speculative sentiment, then international capital's willingness to chase silver longs is weaker than domestic, and there is divergence between the domestic and international markets.
On crowding and options, the data section does not provide options open interest, implied volatility, or put/call ratios; the relevant data is pending update. Judging solely from SI=F's chPos (90.60%, 90.00%, 92.10%), the positioning location indicator has been at elevated levels over the past three days, suggesting that international long positioning is relatively crowded, and if profit-taking emerges, the magnitude of the pullback could be amplified.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the gold-silver ratio, the data section does not provide specific values for gold prices (such as COMEX gold or SHFE gold), so the gold-silver ratio and its historical percentile cannot be calculated; the data is pending update. The gold-silver ratio is a key indicator for judging silver's relative valuation; if the ratio is at a historical high, silver is undervalued relative to gold and has catch-up room; if at a low, silver is relatively expensive. In the absence of gold prices, this report does not make a quantitative judgment on the direction of the gold-silver ratio.
On the oil-gold ratio, the data section does not provide crude oil prices; the oil-gold ratio and its percentile are pending update. The oil-gold ratio is often used to gauge the relative strength of the inflation trade versus growth expectations and has reference significance for pricing silver's industrial attributes.
On the copper-gold ratio, the data section does not provide copper prices; the copper-gold ratio and its percentile are pending update. The copper-gold ratio is a proxy for the relative strength of pro-cyclical versus safe-haven assets; if the copper-gold ratio rises, it typically signals improving growth expectations, which is favorable to the industrial demand narrative for silver.
The only available cross-market comparison is domestic versus international silver prices: international SI=F closed at 34.5190 USD/oz on 2025-06-04, with a 5-day gain of 4.60% and a 20-day gain of 4.25%; the domestic SHFE silver main continuous closed at 8,463.00 CNY/kg on June 4, with a single-day gain of 2.8460% on June 3. The two are directionally consistent, both in an uptrend, but the domestic single-day gain on June 3 was notably large, suggesting possible catch-up or a correction of FX and domestic-international price spread effects. As the data section does not provide RMB exchange rate or domestic-international spread values, the specific relative-value percentile data is pending update.
V. Sentiment
On the sentiment score, the data section does not provide a quantitative sentiment indicator; the sentiment score data is pending update. Domestic related headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER) returned N/A, i.e., no usable headline sample, so news bias cannot be classified as bullish or bearish, and the relevant sentiment monitoring data is pending update.
Observable alternative sentiment evidence comes from price and open interest: SHFE silver surged 2.8460% on June 3 with open interest increasing, and on June 4 prices held steady at 8,463.00 CNY/kg while open interest continued to rise to 379,627 lots, indicating that market sentiment is on the positive side but the pace of chasing highs has slowed. International SI=F's chPos has been above 90% for three consecutive days (90.60%, 90.00%, 92.10%), suggesting crowded long positioning and overheating risk in sentiment. If no new bullish catalyst emerges subsequently, high-level sentiment could turn cautious.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
The data section does not provide SHFE Silver seasonal statistics, the distribution of gains/losses over the same period in the past 10 years, or monthly effect data; the relevant historical statistical pattern data is pending update. This report does not make inferences about the June seasonal direction without data support.
The only available time-series information is the past 5 days of domestic market data and the past 5 days of international market data: domestic closes from May 28 to June 4 were 8225.00, 8224.00, 8218.00, 8456.00, and 8463.00 CNY/kg, respectively; international closes from May 29 to June 4 were 33.2830, 32.8920, 34.5630, 34.5030, and 34.5190 USD/oz, respectively. Both series show a jump from late May to early June, followed by stabilization at highs. If a similar start-of-month capital rebalancing effect existed in the same period historically, more years of samples would be needed for verification; the current data is insufficient to confirm this.
VII. Long-Short Game Deduction
Bullish arguments: First, the price stands above MA5 (8317.20) and MA20 (8223.30), and MA5 is above MA20, indicating a bullish short-term trend structure; second, the single-day gain of 2.8460% on June 3 was accompanied by open interest rising from 334,026 lots to 370,146 lots, and open interest further rose to 379,627 lots on June 4, with the increase in open interest alongside rising prices indicating active long positioning by funds; third, the international market SI=F rose 4.60% over 5 days and 4.25% over 20 days, with domestic and international markets resonating, and no obvious drag from the overseas market; fourth, the close of 8463.00 CNY/kg is only about 0.70% from the 20-day high of 8522.00, and an effective breakout could open upside space.
Bearish arguments: First, trading volume on June 4 was 449,279 lots, declining consecutively from 547,586 lots on June 3 and 658,243 lots on May 30, with stable prices and shrinking volume indicating weakening momentum for chasing longs; second, on a COT basis, the latest net long position was net=13,124 lots with Δ=-1,262 lots, as longs reduced positions and shorts added positions, indicating that international speculative capital weakened at the margin; third, SI=F's chPos is at a high level of 90.60%, with crowded longs and risk of profit-taking; fourth, the pivot P=8470.67 is above the close of 8463.00, and R1=8490.33 constitutes short-term resistance; if it cannot be reclaimed, the price may retrace to S1=8443.33 or even MA5=8317.20.
Short- to medium-term balance of power: In the short term (1-5 days), bulls remain dominant, but declining volume and rising crowding at highs provide a hedge; in the medium term (1-4 weeks), direction depends on whether the price can effectively break above the 20-day high of 8522.00. If it breaks above and open interest increases simultaneously, the trend can continue; if it spikes and falls back below 8443.33, it turns into consolidation or even fills the June 3 gap. The overall judgment is bullish but with caution against repeated high-level fluctuations, and linear extrapolation is not advisable.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (buy on pullback): Entry reference range of 8443-8463 CNY/kg (near S1=8443.33 to the June 4 close of 8463.00), stop-loss set below 8317.20 (below MA5), target looking toward 8522.00 (20-day high) and even extension space above 8490.33 (R1), time horizon 1-5 trading days, position size recommended not to exceed 15% of total capital; if it breaks below 8443.33, reduce by half; if it breaks below 8317.20, exit.
Strategy Two (breakout follow): If the price effectively breaks above 8522.00 (20-day high) and open interest continues to increase, then go long with the trend, entry reference 8522-8540 CNY/kg, stop-loss set below 8443.33, target reference range 8600-8650 CNY/kg, time horizon 1-5 trading days, position size recommended not to exceed 10% of total capital; if the breakout fails (close falls back below 8522), stop-loss and exit.
Regarding risk management, three indicators require key monitoring: first, whether open interest can remain near 379,627 lots or continue to increase; if the open interest build stalls, bullish momentum is questionable; second, whether international market SI=F's chPos can fall back from the high of 90.60% without triggering a sharp price decline; if the high-level retreat is accompanied by a sharp price drop, the domestic market may catch down; third, whether the COT net long Δ can turn positive; if it remains negative, medium-term upside space is limited. All strategies must set hard stop-losses, and adding to positions without stop-loss conditions is prohibited.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The data section does not provide the domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days (returns N/A); this week's event table data is pending update. It is recommended to continue tracking: weekly changes in domestic silver inventory and open interest, weekly updates to international market COT positioning, the US dollar index and real interest rate trends, and any macroeconomic data releases that may affect the precious metals sector. If the calendar data is subsequently completed, the impact of event drivers on SHFE Silver volatility will need to be reassessed.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.