I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-06-04, SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 78,200/t, up 0.5271% versus the previous trading day, with daily volume of 111,379 lots and open interest of 195,214 lots. Over the past five trading days, price started from the 2025-05-28 close of CNY 77,870/t, and after a consolidation sequence of CNY 78,130/t on 2025-05-29, CNY 77,600/t on 2025-05-30, and CNY 77,650/t on 2025-06-03, it closed higher on rising volume on 2025-06-04, reclaiming the short-term moving average system.
On moving average structure, on 2025-06-04 MA5 stood at CNY 77,890/t and MA20 at CNY 77,933/t; the close of CNY 78,200/t is above both MA5 and MA20, with short-term averages showing signs of repairing from below. However, MA5 remains slightly below MA20, so a standard bullish alignment has not yet formed, and trend confirmation still requires validation in subsequent sessions. The pivot system shows the daily pivot P at CNY 78,163.33/t, first resistance R1 at CNY 78,436.67/t, and first support S1 at CNY 77,926.67/t; the close is slightly above the pivot, placing price in a neutral-to-firm zone.
On key ranges, the 20-day high H20 is CNY 79,090/t and the 20-day low L20 is CNY 77,280/t (the 2025-06-03 low of CNY 77,030/t indicates a higher low). Measured against the close of CNY 78,200/t, price is about 1.14% below the 20-day high and about 1.19% above the 20-day low, sitting in the upper-middle of the 20-day range. On volatility, the international contract HG=F has an ATR of USD 0.0996/lb, down modestly from 0.1019 on 2025-06-03 and 0.1046 on 2025-06-02, suggesting short-term volatility has contracted somewhat, though the absolute level remains elevated.
On the daily chart, the 2025-06-04 bullish candle body covers part of the prior two sessions' decline, and volume expanded markedly versus 81,179 lots on 2025-06-03, a positive price-volume alignment. On the weekly chart, the past five days have recovered from lower levels but have not yet broken the prior high. Monthly data are limited, so the 20-day range is used as the interim medium-term reference. RSI and MACD values are pending update; inferred from the price-versus-moving-average relationship, momentum indicators are most likely in a neutral-to-bullish zone and have not yet entered overbought territory.
Synthesizing the technical picture, near-term key levels are: resistance above at R1 (78,436.67) and the 20-day high (79,090); support below at pivot P (78,163.33), S1 (77,926.67), MA20 (77,933), and the 20-day low (77,280). A decisive close above 78,436.67 would open a test of 79,090; a loss of 77,926.67 would raise the probability of a retest of 77,280.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, this report's data segment does not provide the latest readings for interest rates, the dollar index, inflation, inventories, ETFs, or geopolitics; those data are pending update. Accordingly, this section can only draw indirect inferences from the available price and positioning information and does not cite specific figures for macro variables.
From the international comparison, HG=F closed at USD 4.8645/lb on 2025-06-04, up 1.14% on the day, with a 5-day gain of 4.75% and a 20-day gain of 2.73%, indicating firm recent momentum in international copper. SHFE Copper rose 0.5271% on the same day, lagging the international market, so the onshore-offshore ratio has converged slightly in the short term. If the dollar weakens or macro risk appetite recovers, the firm international copper pattern may transmit to the domestic market; if the dollar rebounds or risk appetite fades, the probability of synchronized pressure on both markets rises.
On inventories and central-bank gold buying, copper, as an industrial metal, is driven primarily by global manufacturing demand, power-grid investment, and new-energy-related consumption rather than central-bank gold purchases. The data segment does not provide SHFE, LME, or COMEX copper inventory figures; inventory levels are pending update. ETF holdings and geopolitical events likewise lack specific data, so no quantitative judgment is made for now.
From the open interest change, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest rose from 169,462 lots on 2025-05-28 to 195,214 lots on 2025-06-04, an increase of about 25,752 lots, or roughly 15.2%, while price rose from CNY 77,870/t to CNY 78,200/t, an early signature of an open-interest-build rally. If open interest continues to rise and price holds above the moving averages, a capital-driven rebound could have staying power; if open interest falls sharply, watch for short-term longs taking profit.
International COT data (note: the data segment is labeled 2026, inconsistent with the report date of 2025-06-04; it is used here for structural reference only, and the specific figures are pending verification) show the latest net long at 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior period, with total open interest of 289,463 lots. A decline in net longs usually implies easing speculative long crowding; if price still strengthens over the same period, it suggests strong physical or commercial buying support; if price weakens alongside falling net longs, it may reflect active long liquidation.
Overall, among the fundamental drivers, price and positioning data support a near-term bullish bias, but macro, inventory, ETF, and geopolitical data are missing, so a complete fundamental loop cannot be formed; related conclusions will need revision once data are updated.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest has risen for five consecutive sessions: 169,462 lots on 2025-05-28, 174,757 lots on 2025-05-29, 172,994 lots on 2025-05-30, 182,260 lots on 2025-06-03, and 195,214 lots on 2025-06-04. The single-day increase from 2025-06-03 to 2025-06-04 was 12,954 lots, or about 7.1%, the largest single-day build in five sessions; combined with the 0.5271% price gain that day, fund inflows are moving in sync with price.
On volume, 2025-06-04 turnover was 111,379 lots, up about 36.0% versus 81,917 lots on 2025-06-03 and about 51.7% versus 73,407 lots on 2025-05-28, a clear expansion in activity. The combination of rising volume, rising open interest, and rising price is typically read as strengthening short-term bullish momentum, though note that if volume cannot be sustained, price may slip into a range.
International COT category data show the latest period (data segment labeled 2026-09-15) with total open interest OI of 289,463 lots, longs L of 83,704 lots, shorts S of 18,598 lots, and net long of 65,106 lots, a change Δ of -17,048 lots versus the prior period. The prior period (2026-09-08) had a net long of 82,154 lots, Δ of +9,272 lots. Net longs fell sharply after two consecutive weekly increases, with long crowding declining at the margin. If this trend continues, further speculative long liquidation could weigh on international copper; if net longs stabilize and recover, the firm international pattern is likely to extend.
On options and volatility, the data segment does not provide SHFE Copper option open interest, implied volatility, or skew data; those metrics are pending update. International HG=F ATR fell from 0.1046 on 2025-06-02 to 0.0996 on 2025-06-04, a modest decline in volatility; if ATR keeps falling, trend continuation after a key-level break may strengthen; if ATR re-rises, the risk of a false break increases.
Comprehensive fund-flow assessment: domestic open-interest build with rising volume is mildly bullish, while the international net-long pullback is mildly bearish, forming a partial offset. Near-term funding conditions are neutral-to-bullish, but watch whether international net longs change direction and whether domestic open interest can keep rising.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data segment does not provide cross-asset prices such as gold, silver, or crude oil, so the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and their historical percentile data are pending update. Accordingly, this section cannot give specific ratio values or percentile judgments.
From a framework perspective, the copper-gold ratio is often treated as a proxy for global growth expectations: a rising copper-gold ratio implies improving expectations for industrial demand and risk appetite, while a falling ratio signals rising safe-haven sentiment or growth concerns. The oil-gold ratio more closely reflects the relative strength of inflation and energy supply-demand. Currently SHFE Copper and international copper are strengthening in tandem; if gold and crude oil data were available for the same period, they could further validate the direction of risk appetite.
Given the data gap, it is recommended to focus tracking on copper's own price structure and positioning changes, with cross-asset ratios to be supplemented once data are updated. If the copper-gold ratio subsequently sits in the mid-to-high historical percentile, copper is relatively strong versus gold and mean reversion should be watched; if it sits in a low percentile, copper is relatively weak versus gold, and there is room for recovery if growth expectations repair.
V. Sentiment
The data segment shows that domestic-related headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=COPPER) are N/A, i.e., no usable headline data; sentiment scores and media tone are pending update. No directional judgment can be made from media headlines, and no quotes are fabricated.
Indirectly from price behavior, SHFE Copper rose on expanding volume on 2025-06-04, and international HG=F rose 1.14% the same day, with chPos (positioning change percentage) at 88.70%, up from 77.00% on 2025-06-03 and 82.30% on 2025-06-02, indicating stronger international long positioning appetite. If this indicator stays elevated, market sentiment is optimistic; if it falls quickly, sentiment may turn cautious.
Overall sentiment judgment: with data missing, maintain neutral; price and positioning metrics are mildly bullish, but there is no media-sentiment confirmation.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
The data segment does not provide seasonal historical data for SHFE Copper or same-period statistics over the past 10 years; the seasonal pattern is pending an update. Specific statistical values such as the probability of SHFE Copper rising in June or the average gain/loss cannot be given.
From a general empirical framework, copper prices are often influenced toward the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3 by grid investment, the air-conditioning production peak season, and supply disruptions at South American mines. However, for the current year in particular, this needs to be verified against inventories, TC/RC, and downstream operating rates. The current data segment lacks these indicators, so no quantitative conclusion is drawn.
Suggested follow-ups: changes in open interest around the June contract delivery, weekly changes in LME and SHFE inventories, and progress in mine treatment-charge negotiations. If inventories are drawn down while treatment charges remain low, the downside support for copper prices is relatively strong; if inventories accumulate and treatment charges rebound, upside pressure increases.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors:
1. SHFE Copper closed at CNY 78,200/t on June 4, above the MA5 (77,890) and MA20 (77,933), with short-term moving averages repaired.
2. Open interest rose from 169,462 lots on May 28 to 195,214 lots on June 4, an open interest build of about 15.2%, indicating capital inflows.
3. Trading volume rose from 81,917 lots on June 3 to 111,379 lots on June 4, with volume and price moving in positive alignment.
4. The international contract HG=F rose 1.14% on the same day, up 4.75% over 5 days and 2.73% over 20 days, showing onshore-offshore resonance.
5. The 20-day low has lifted from CNY 77,030/t to CNY 77,280/t, with downside support moving higher.
Bearish factors:
1. The closing price of CNY 78,200/t is still about 1.14% below the 20-day high of CNY 79,090/t; overhead resistance has not been broken.
2. The MA5 (77,890) is still slightly below the MA20 (77,933); a bullish moving-average alignment has not formed.
3. The international COT net long stands at 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior release; long crowding has eased, but the open interest cut is pronounced.
4. Domestic headlines and macro/inventory data are missing, leaving insufficient fundamental validation.
5. The June 4 pivot P is 78,163.33, and the close is only slightly above it; if S1 (77,926.67) is lost, the short-term tone turns weak.
Short- vs medium-term balance: short term (1–5 days) the bulls hold a slight edge, given the open interest build with rising volume and onshore-offshore synchronization; medium term (1–4 weeks) direction hinges on whether inventories and macro data can validate, and with current evidence insufficient, a neutral stance is maintained. If the price holds firmly above 79,090, the medium-term bias turns bullish; if it breaks below 77,280, the medium-term bias turns bearish.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (short-term bullish): entry reference in the CNY 77,900–78,200/t zone; if the price retraces to near the MA20 (77,933) and stabilizes, a light position may be initiated; stop-loss reference below CNY 77,280/t (20-day low); targets for staged profit-taking at CNY 79,090/t (20-day high) and CNY 78,436.67/t (R1); horizon 1–5 trading days; position size recommended at no more than 10%–15% of total capital. If the stop-loss is breached, exit unconditionally.
Strategy 2 (range trading, sell high / buy low): if the price runs up to near CNY 79,090/t and meets resistance, a short may be considered, with a stop-loss reference above CNY 79,500/t and a target back at CNY 77,933/t (MA20); if the price retraces to near CNY 77,280/t and stabilizes, a long may be considered, with a stop-loss reference below CNY 77,000/t and a target back at CNY 78,200/t. Horizon 1–5 trading days; position size recommended at no more than 10% of total capital.
Risk management: risk per trade controlled at 1%–2% of total capital; if ATR (international contract 0.0996 USD/lb) continues to expand, the stop-loss should be widened or the position size reduced accordingly; if open interest falls rapidly or international net longs continue to decline sharply, reduce positions or exit. All strategies must be dynamically adjusted in line with real-time data and do not constitute a certainty commitment.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The data segment shows the domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days as N/A, with specific events pending an update. Suggested focus: daily SHFE Copper warrants and inventory changes, LME Copper inventories and cancelled warrants, COMEX Copper positioning reports, the US dollar index and US Treasury yield trends, and mine-supply-related news. If releases deviate materially from expectations, copper price volatility may amplify.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.