I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-06-06, the Rebar main continuous contract closed at CNY 2,975.00/t, up 0.5747% versus the previous trading day, with volume of 1.8453m lots and open interest of 2.2164m lots. Over the past five trading sessions, prices have been range-bound: 05-30 closed at CNY 2,961/t (-0.34%), 06-3 closed at CNY 2,928/t (-1.18%), 06-4 closed at CNY 2,974/t (+1.57%), 06-5 closed at CNY 2,959/t (+0.14%), and 06-6 closed at CNY 2,975/t (+0.57%). The current price sits above the 5-day moving average (MA5) of CNY 2,959.40/t, but significantly below the 20-day moving average (MA20) of CNY 3,026.40/t, reflecting a tug-of-war between short-term rebound momentum and the medium-term downtrend. The 20-day high (H20) is CNY 3,133.00/t and the 20-day low (L20) is CNY 2,912.00/t, placing the current price in the lower-middle portion of the recent 20-day range. The pivot point (P) is CNY 2,980.00/t, first resistance R1 is CNY 2,997.00/t, and first support S1 is CNY 2,958.00/t. On the daily chart, price has rebounded from the 06-3 low of CNY 2,928/t but failed to break out of the consolidation range that followed the 06-4 high of CNY 2,974/t. On the weekly chart, price has closed below MA20 for two consecutive weeks, while on the monthly chart it remains within a wide trading range since the start of 2025. Regarding technical indicators, specific RSI, MACD and ATR values are pending update; however, based on the price-versus-moving-average relationship, the short-term RSI may be recovering from oversold territory, MACD remains below the zero line, and ATR suggests volatility is at a moderate level. Key levels: upside resistance at 2,980 (pivot P), 2,997 (R1), 3,026 (MA20) and 3,133 (20-day high) in sequence; downside support at 2,958 (S1) and 2,912 (20-day low) in sequence. A decisive break above 2,980 with a sustained hold could open a test of the 2,997–3,026 zone; a break below 2,958 could trigger a retest of 2,912.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Rebar fundamentals must be assessed along both macro and industry dimensions. On the macro side, domestic interest rates, the U.S. dollar index, inflation expectations and central bank policy all exert indirect influence on steel prices. The domestic economy is currently in a phase of growth-stabilization policy support, but specific rate, dollar index and inflation data are pending update. On the industry side, Rebar inventory changes, apparent consumption, steel mill operating rates and mill profits are the core variables. Typically, accelerating destocking or production cuts support prices, while inventory builds or weakening demand weigh on prices. In this issue, industry data such as inventories, output and operating rates are missing, so marginal supply-demand changes cannot be quantified. In addition, ETF holdings and central bank gold purchases have low direct relevance to Rebar but can serve as a proxy for macro risk appetite; data are pending update. Geopolitically, there are no recent major events directly affecting the steel market, but attention should be paid to international trade policy and raw material (Iron Ore, Coke) price swings. Rising Iron Ore and Coke prices would lift Rebar production costs, while declines would erode cost support. Relevant data are currently lacking, so cost-side changes cannot be determined. Overall, with a data vacuum on fundamentals, a clear directional signal is difficult to establish and prices are being driven more by technicals and flows. Should inventories fall more than expected or macro stimulus emerge, prices could be lifted; if demand remains weak or costs collapse, prices would come under pressure.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
As of 2025-06-06, the Rebar main continuous contract open interest stood at 2.2164m lots, down about 40.6k lots from 2.2570m lots on the previous trading day (06-5) and down about 64.0k lots from 2.2804m lots on 06-4, indicating continued outflow of funds. On volume, 06-6 turnover was 1.8453m lots, higher than 1.4870m lots on 06-5 but below 2.0661m lots on 06-4, suggesting activity has picked up somewhat yet remains below prior peaks. The open interest–price relationship: on 06-4, price rose 1.57% while open interest fell, and on 06-6, price rose 0.57% while open interest continued to decline, a “price up, open interest down” pattern that implies the rebound was driven by short covering rather than fresh long entries. COT breakdown data (commercial, non-commercial, retail positions) are pending update, so the institutional-versus-retail positioning structure cannot be determined. On crowding, current open interest is at a five-day low, which may indicate reduced market divergence, but historical percentile data are lacking. Options and volatility data are pending update, so forward-looking volatility expectations cannot be assessed. If open interest continues to fall, the durability of the rebound is questionable; if it stabilizes and rebuilds, a new trend may form.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Cross-asset relative value analysis typically involves ratios such as gold/silver, oil/gold and copper/gold to gauge relative strength across assets. As a black-series commodity, Rebar has some correlation with industrial metals such as copper and with crude oil, but direct ratio relationships are weak. In this issue, specific values and historical percentiles for the gold/silver, oil/gold and copper/gold ratios are pending update, so no quantitative comparison can be made. Logically, a rising copper/gold ratio signals optimism on industrial demand and could indirectly benefit Rebar; a rising oil/gold ratio points to higher inflation expectations and could lift commodities broadly. The reverse would be a headwind. With data currently unavailable, cross-asset signals cannot be judged. It is recommended to monitor subsequent moves in copper, crude oil and gold to help assess macro risk appetite. If the copper/gold ratio is at historical lows, it would suggest industrial metals are undervalued and Rebar may offer relative value; if at highs, pullback risk warrants caution.
V. Sentiment
Headline data for the past 48 hours for the domestic market (market=CN, asset=STEEL) is N/A, so sentiment information cannot be retrieved. Sentiment scores are pending update, so market mood cannot be quantified. Inferring from price action, after the 1.57% surge on 06-4, gains narrowed on 06-5 and 06-6, indicating insufficient appetite to chase strength and a cautious market tone. Should bullish news emerge (e.g., production cuts, stimulus policy), sentiment could turn optimistic; if bearish news appears (e.g., weak demand, inventory builds), sentiment could deteriorate. Close attention should be paid to industry news and policy developments.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
On historical statistical patterns, Rebar prices typically exhibit seasonality: spring (March–May) is the traditional peak season and prices tend to rise; summer (June–August) sees softer demand due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall, weighing on prices; autumn (September–October) re-strengthens; and winter (November–February) brings greater price volatility on winter stockpiling. It is currently early June, a transition from peak to off-peak season, and same-period historical performance tends to be weak. However, specific same-period rise/fall probabilities and magnitudes over the past 10 years are pending update, so no quantitative statistics can be provided. If seasonality holds, June prices may come under pressure; but if macro policy exceeds expectations, seasonality could be overridden.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors: 1) price is above the MA5 (2,959.40), providing short-term moving-average support; 2) the 06-4 volume-backed 1.57% gain shows a long-side counterattack; 3) open interest is declining, so short covering may continue; 4) a break above pivot P (2,980) would turn the technical picture stronger. Bearish factors: 1) price is below the MA20 (3,026.40), leaving the medium-term trend bearish; 2) the 20-day high of CNY 3,133/t is a strong resistance; 3) open interest continues to flow out with no fresh longs; 4) fundamental data are missing, leaving the demand outlook unclear. Short- versus medium-term balance: short term (1–5 days) longs hold a slight edge as price is above the MA5 and short covering is under way; medium term (1–4 weeks) shorts remain in control as price is below the MA20 and fundamentals are soft. A break above 3,026 could reverse the medium-term trend; a break below 2,912 would open further downside.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1 (short-term long): if price pulls back to the 2,958–2,960 zone (near S1) and stabilizes, go long with a light position; entry 2,958, stop-loss 2,936 (06-5 S1), target 2,997 (R1), horizon 1–5 days, position size 5%. Strategy 2 (short-term short): if price rebounds to the 2,997–3,000 zone and stalls, go short with a light position; entry 2,997, stop-loss 3,026 (MA20), target 2,958, horizon 1–5 days, position size 5%. Risk management: enforce strict stop-losses, with a single-trade loss not exceeding 1% of total capital; if price breaks above 3,026 or below 2,912, the trend may accelerate and the strategy should be adjusted promptly. Heavy positions and frequent trading are prohibited.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic economic calendar data for the next seven days are pending update. Items to watch: daily Rebar spot prices and volumes, weekly steel mill operating rates and inventory data, monthly macro releases (e.g., PMI, CPI, PPI), and any surprise policy announcements. Specific event timings are pending update.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.