I. Price Action & Technical Analysis (~600 words)
As of 2025-06-09, SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at CNY 78,910/t, up 0.1269% from the previous trading day, with volume of 75,321 lots and open interest of 202,306 lots. Over the past five trading days, the price has gradually recovered from the 2025-06-03 close of CNY 77,650/t, with a single-day gain of 1.0369% on 2025-06-06, followed by a modest continuation higher on 2025-06-09. The price now stands above both the 5-day MA5 (CNY 78,372/t) and the 20-day MA20 (CNY 78,105/t), with short-term moving averages forming an incipient bullish alignment. However, the 20-day high H20 at CNY 79,180/t overhead constitutes key near-term resistance, while the 20-day low L20 at CNY 77,390/t below serves as important support. The pivot point P is CNY 78,770/t, first resistance R1 is CNY 79,060/t, and first support S1 is CNY 78,620/t.
On the weekly timeframe, the price center of gravity over the past five days has shifted higher relative to the 2025-06-03 low of CNY 77,650/t, but the upper boundary of the trading range since May has not yet been breached. Monthly timeframe data is limited; however, the range width between the 20-day high of CNY 79,180/t and the low of CNY 77,390/t is approximately CNY 1,790/t, indicating a relatively contracted consolidation pattern.
Regarding technical indicators, specific values for RSI, MACD, ATR, etc., were not provided in the data; data pending update. Based on the price-to-moving-average relationship, short-term momentum is skewed bullish. If the price can effectively break above R1 (CNY 79,060/t) and hold, it may test H20 (CNY 79,180/t); if it falls below S1 (CNY 78,620/t), it may retest MA20 (CNY 78,105/t) or even L20 (CNY 77,390/t).
The international contract HG=F closed at USD 4.9095/lb on the same day, up 1.65%, with a 5-day gain of 1.55% and a 20-day gain of 6.47%. The pivot P is 4.8898, R1 is 4.9326, S1 is 4.8666, and ATR is 0.1028. International copper prices have clearly outperformed domestic prices, and the onshore-offshore ratio has seen some repair. If the international market continues to strengthen, it will exert a positive pull on domestic copper prices.
II. Fundamental Drivers (~700 words)
On the macro front, key data such as interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations were not provided in this dataset; data pending update. Judging from the 6.47% gain in international copper prices over the past 20 days, the market may have partially priced in macro tailwinds, such as Fed rate-cut expectations or a weaker US dollar. However, lacking specific data support, no definitive judgment can be made. If the US dollar index weakens further, copper prices may gain additional upward momentum; if inflation data comes in above expectations, it could suppress rate-cut expectations and weigh on copper prices.
On inventories, LME, SHFE, and bonded zone copper stock data were not provided; data pending update. Inventory changes are one of the core variables for short-term copper price volatility; continued destocking supports prices, while accumulation weighs on them. ETF holdings data is also missing, making it impossible to assess inflows and outflows through ETF channels.
Central bank gold purchases are typically not directly correlated with copper prices, but as an indicator of macro risk-off sentiment, sustained central bank buying may reflect concerns over US dollar credit, indirectly benefiting commodities like copper. However, no such information was provided in this dataset.
Geopolitically, there were no relevant domestic headlines in the past 48 hours (N/A), with no specific news data. International geopolitical events could affect copper supply chains (e.g., political risk in major producing countries) or demand expectations (e.g., trade frictions), but quantification is impossible without data.
From the international COT positioning data, although the date is labeled 2026, the most recent week (2026-09-15) shows speculative net long positions of 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior week, indicating that speculative funds are reducing longs. Total open interest was 289,463 lots, down from 297,491 lots the prior week. Longs decreased while shorts increased (shorts rose from 15,853 lots to 18,598 lots), suggesting market sentiment is turning cautious. If this trend persists, copper price upside may face resistance; if positioning stabilizes and recovers, prices may find support.
Domestically, SHFE copper open interest fell from 204,118 lots on 2025-06-06 to 202,306 lots on 2025-06-09, a decrease of 1,812 lots. Combined with the modest price increase, this suggests some longs took profits and exited. Volume shrank sharply from 128,281 lots to 75,321 lots, indicating lower market activity and a possible shift into a wait-and-see phase.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows (~400 words)
International COT data shows that in the most recent week (2026-09-15), total open interest was 289,463 lots, down 8,028 lots from 297,491 lots the prior week. Long positions were 83,704 lots, down sharply by 14,303 lots from 98,007 lots; short positions were 18,598 lots, up 2,745 lots from 15,853 lots. Net long positions stood at 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from 82,154 lots. Net longs accounted for approximately 22.5% of total open interest, down notably from 27.6% the prior week, indicating that speculative long crowding has eased.
In terms of direction, long liquidation and short building, with shrinking net longs, suggest cooling bullish sentiment. If this trend continues, copper prices may face near-term correction pressure; if net longs stabilize, prices may resume their ascent.
Domestically, SHFE copper open interest of 202,306 lots was down 1,812 lots, or 0.89%, from 204,118 lots on 2025-06-06. Volume of 75,321 lots fell sharply by 41.3% from 128,281 lots on 2025-06-06, with trading activity turning subdued. The simultaneous decline in open interest and volume indicates reduced capital participation and a possible move into consolidation.
Options and volatility data were not provided; data pending update. On ATR, the international HG=F ATR is USD 0.1028/lb, at a moderate recent level, implying relatively stable short-term volatility. If ATR rises, it may accompany a price breakout; if ATR falls, the consolidation pattern persists.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value (~400 words)
Cross-asset ratio data such as the gold/silver ratio, oil/gold ratio, and copper/gold ratio were not provided in this dataset; data pending update. These ratios are typically used to gauge relative strength across assets and market risk appetite. For example, a rising copper/gold ratio often reflects improving growth expectations, while a rising gold/silver ratio may signal rising risk-off sentiment.
Without specific values, current percentile levels cannot be calculated. However, indirect observation is possible via the relative performance of international versus domestic copper prices. International HG=F gained 1.55% over the past five days and 6.47% over the past 20 days; the domestic SHFE Copper main continuous contract rose from CNY 77,650/t to CNY 78,910/t over the past five days, a gain of approximately 1.62%, with the 20-day gain requiring more data to compute. Onshore and offshore gains are close over five days, but the 20-day international gain is significantly larger, showing offshore outperformance. If the RMB exchange rate remains stable, the onshore-offshore ratio may continue to repair.
Additionally, copper's price ratios to crude oil and gold may be driven by macro factors. If crude oil prices rise, inflation expectations may increase, indirectly supporting copper; if gold prices rise, it may reflect safe-haven demand, with a neutral impact on copper. However, specific data is missing, precluding quantitative analysis.
V. Sentiment (~200 words)
There were no relevant domestic headlines in the past 48 hours (N/A), with no specific news data, so sentiment cannot be assessed. Sentiment score data was not provided; data pending update. Inferred from price action and positioning changes, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic: prices stand above moving averages, but open interest has declined, indicating insufficient long conviction. The reduction in international COT net longs also corroborates cooling speculative sentiment. If bullish news emerges, it may boost sentiment; if bearish news appears, it may intensify the pullback.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics) (~300 words)
Historical seasonal patterns and comparable data for the past 10 years were not provided in this dataset; data pending update. Typically, copper prices are supported by Chinese grid investment and the air-conditioning production peak season from late Q2 to early Q3, but specific statistics rely on historical data. Without data, it is impossible to verify whether current prices deviate from seasonal averages. If data is updated later, attention can be paid to the suppressive effect of the traditional consumption off-season in June–July on prices.
VII. Scenario Analysis (~400 words)
Bullish factors: 1) Price stands above MA5 and MA20, with short-term moving averages in bullish alignment; 2) International HG=F is up 6.47% over 20 days, and offshore strength may drag the domestic market; 3) Domestic prices have continued to recover from the 2025-06-03 low of CNY 77,650/t, forming a short-term uptrend; 4) A break above the 20-day high of CNY 79,180/t may attract technical buying.
Bearish factors: 1) Open interest continues to decline, with capital outflows; 2) International COT net longs fell by 17,048 lots, cooling speculative sentiment; 3) Volume has shrunk, with low market participation; 4) Price has not broken the 20-day high of CNY 79,180/t, so resistance remains effective; 5) A break below the 20-day low of CNY 77,390/t may trigger stop-loss selling.
Short- versus medium-term balance: Short term (1–5 days), longs hold a slight edge, as price is above moving averages and the external market is firm; medium term (1–4 weeks), longs and shorts are balanced, with attention on positioning changes and macro data. If open interest recovers and price breaks 79,180, the medium-term bias turns bullish; if open interest continues to fall and price breaks below 77,390, the medium-term bias turns bearish.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management (~300 words)
Strategy 1: Range-bound dip buying. Entry reference CNY 78,620/t (near S1), stop-loss CNY 77,390/t (below L20), targets CNY 79,060/t (R1) to CNY 79,180/t (H20), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 6. If price breaks below CNY 77,390/t, exit on stop-loss.
Strategy 2: Breakout long. If price effectively breaks above CNY 79,180/t (H20), enter long, stop-loss CNY 78,620/t (S1), target CNY 80,000/t (psychological level), horizon 1–5 days, position size no more than 5%, conviction 7. If the breakout fails, stop out.
Risk management: Set stop-losses strictly and avoid heavy one-sided exposure. Monitor changes in open interest and trading volume; if they continue to shrink, reduce position size. Although the international COT data shows a date anomaly, the decline in net longs warrants caution.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar (~100 words)
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A; data to be updated. Watch for China macro releases such as CPI, PPI, and Total Social Financing, as well as LME copper inventory changes. Internationally, monitor the FOMC meeting minutes and US inflation data. Any upside or downside surprise could trigger volatility in copper prices.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.