1. Price Action & Technical Analysis
Silver (SI=F) closed at 65.83 on 2026-09-21, down 1.1% on the day, according to the latest data. The five-day change is +5.79, reflecting a strong rebound from recent lows, but the 20-day change remains negative at -3.28, indicating that the broader trend over the past month is still corrective. The daily pivot point (P) is 66.98, with first resistance (R1) at 67.76 and first support (S1) at 66.41. The close is below the pivot and S1, suggesting near-term weakness. The average true range (ATR) is 1.702, which is relatively elevated, implying that daily swings of around 1.7 points are common. Open interest (OI) stands at 85,140 contracts, with volume at just 10 contracts on 2026-09-21, which is unusually low and may reflect a data quirk or a holiday-thinned session. The change in position (chPos) is 51.2%, indicating a moderate shift in positioning.
On a weekly basis, the five-day change of +5.79 points is significant, but the 20-day change of -3.28 points shows that the rally has not fully reversed the prior decline. The 20-day drawdown is 8.92%, showing that the recent pullback from the 20-day high is nearly 9%.
However, the price action suggests that RSI may be recovering from oversold levels but is likely still below 50, given the 20-day negative change. MACD would likely show a bearish crossover or a narrowing histogram. The ATR of 1.702 is a key metric for risk management, as it implies that a 1.7-point move is typical. The pivot levels are consistent with the recent close: the close of 65.83 is below the pivot of 66.98, which is bearish for the next session. The first support at 66.41 is above the close, which is unusual; typically, S1 is below the pivot and the close. Here, the close is below S1, which suggests that the market is already trading below the first support level, potentially targeting S2 or the next support zone. The next support is likely around 64.29 (the 2026-09-16 close) and then 63.81 (S1 on 2026-09-16).
On a monthly basis, the 20-day change of -3.28 points indicates a monthly decline, but the five-day rally shows that buyers are stepping in. The 52-week drawdown of 51.43% is a stark reminder that silver has fallen significantly from its peak. The 20-day drawdown of 8.92% is less severe but still notable. The Sharpe ratio over 30 days is 0.7122, which is positive but modest, indicating that the risk-adjusted return over the past month has been positive but not exceptional. The VaR95 is -6.28%, meaning that there is a 5% chance of a daily loss exceeding 6.28% based on historical volatility. The 20-day volatility is 32.91%, which is high and reflects the recent price swings.
In summary, the technical picture is mixed: short-term momentum is positive (5-day gain), but the medium-term trend is negative (20-day loss). The close below the pivot and S1 suggests further downside risk in the immediate term, with support at 64.29 and 63.81. Resistance is at 67.76 and 68.36. A break above 67.76 would signal a bullish reversal, while a break below 64.29 would open the door to a test of 63 or lower. The ATR of 1.7 provides a guide for stop placement and position sizing.
2. Fundamental Drivers
Interest rates and the US dollar are primary drivers for silver. The US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is 4.96%, down 0.7% on 2026-09-21. This is a high yield in absolute terms, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. The US dollar index (DXY) is 100.43, up 0.2% on the day. A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers, which is a headwind. The combination of high yields and a firm dollar is typically bearish for precious metals. However, the slight decline in yields on the day may have provided some support, but the dollar's gain offset it.
If inflation expectations rise, silver could benefit as an inflation hedge. Conversely, if they fall, silver may face pressure. The Federal Reserve's policy stance is not explicitly mentioned, but the high 10-year yield suggests that the market is pricing in a restrictive policy environment. The ECB President Lagarde speaks on 2026-09-22, and the SNB policy rate decision on 2026-09-24 could influence global monetary policy expectations. A dovish SNB could weaken the Swiss franc and potentially boost silver, but the impact is usually indirect.
Inventories: SHFE warrant stocks stood at 1,423,316 kg on 2026-09-21, up 15,935 kg week-over-week. This increase in inventories suggests that supply is ample in the Chinese market, which is bearish for silver prices. COMEX registered stocks were 3,026,059.52 kg on 2026-09-17, with no weekly change provided. The high level of COMEX stocks indicates that there is no physical shortage. The term structure is in contango, with M1-M2 at -0.77 (-1.16%) and a roll yield of -13.89%. Contango means that futures prices are higher than spot prices, which encourages storage and reflects ample supply. The slope is 0.3262, indicating a moderate contango. This structure is bearish for spot prices as it incentivizes selling in the spot market and buying futures.
However, the COT data shows that managed money net length is 13,124 contracts, down 1,262 from the previous week. This reduction in net length suggests that speculative demand is waning. The open interest in the COT report is 103,745 contracts, which is higher than the OI in the daily price data (85,140), possibly due to different reporting dates or contract months. The COT data is as of 2026-09-15, while the price data is as of 2026-09-21.
However, the ECB President's speech and the SNB decision could have geopolitical undertones. The Australian employment data on 2026-09-23 could impact the Australian dollar and, by extension, commodity currencies and silver. The Chinese bank holiday on 2026-09-24 may reduce liquidity in Asian markets. Overall, the fundamental backdrop is mixed: high yields and a strong dollar are bearish, but the slight decline in yields and potential inflation hedging could provide support. The contango and rising inventories are bearish, while the reduction in managed money net length could be a contrarian signal if it becomes extreme, but at 13,124 contracts, it is not yet at extreme levels.
3. Positioning & Fund Flows
The CFTC COT data for silver as of 2026-09-15 shows that managed money long positions are 20,205 contracts, short positions are 7,081 contracts, and net length is 13,124 contracts. This net length is down 1,262 from the previous week (2026-09-08), when net length was 14,386. The week before that (2026-09-01), net length was 12,598, and on 2026-08-25, it was 14,073. So over the past four weeks, net length has fluctuated between 12,598 and 14,386, with no clear trend. The recent decrease suggests that some longs have exited or shorts have increased. The open interest in the COT report is 103,745 contracts, down from 113,801 on 2026-08-25, indicating a decline in overall market participation.
Crowding metrics: The net position as a percentage of open interest (netPct) is 12.65% on 2026-09-15, down from 13.93% on 2026-09-08. The crowding score is 55.04, down from 58.85. The CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) position is 62, unchanged over the four weeks. The hedge position is 25.81%, slightly down from 25.91%. These metrics suggest that positioning is moderately crowded on the long side, but not at extreme levels. The crowding score of 55.04 is above 50, indicating a slight long bias. The CTA position of 62 is stable, suggesting that trend-following funds are not aggressively adding to positions. The hedge position of 25.81% is relatively low, indicating that commercial hedgers are not heavily short.
Options and volatility: The CBOE Silver Volatility Index (^VXSLV) is 39.97, unchanged on 2026-09-21. This is a high level, indicating that options market participants expect significant price swings. The VIX is 14.87, up 0.41%, which is relatively low, suggesting that equity market volatility is subdued. The high VXSLV relative to VIX indicates that silver-specific uncertainty is elevated. This could be due to the recent price volatility or upcoming events. The 20-day volatility is 32.91%, which is close to the VXSLV, confirming high realized volatility. The VaR95 of -6.28% is a measure of tail risk.
This could be a bearish signal in the short term, but if positioning becomes too light, it could set the stage for a rally. The contango structure may discourage long-only ETF holders, as roll costs are negative. Overall, positioning is moderately long but not extreme, and the high volatility suggests that risk management is crucial.
4. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The gold-silver ratio (GC_SI_RATIO) is 65.65. This ratio is in the 50th percentile of its one-year range and the 17th percentile of its three-year range. A lower percentile means that silver is relatively expensive compared to gold. Over the past year, the ratio has been higher on average, so silver has outperformed gold recently. Over three years, the ratio is near the bottom of its range, indicating that silver is historically expensive relative to gold. This could mean that either silver is overvalued or gold is undervalued. If the ratio mean-reverts, silver could underperform gold. However, the ratio is still above 65, which is historically high in absolute terms (the 10-year average is around 70-80), so silver is not extremely expensive. The one-year percentile of 49.6% suggests that the ratio is near its median, so it is not a strong signal.
We cannot comment on these ratios without data. Therefore, we will focus on that. The gold-silver ratio is a key metric for relative value traders. A ratio of 65.65 means that one ounce of gold buys 65.65 ounces of silver. If the ratio falls, silver outperforms gold; if it rises, gold outperforms. The current ratio is below the 1-year median (since percentile is 49.6%, median is 50%), so it is slightly below the median. The 3-year percentile of 16.53% indicates that the ratio is in the lower quartile of the 3-year range, meaning silver is relatively expensive compared to gold over a longer horizon. This could be a warning sign for silver bulls.
Other cross-asset metrics: The US 10-year yield at 4.96% and the dollar at 100.43 are relevant. A high yield and strong dollar are typically negative for silver. The VIX at 14.87 is low, which is generally positive for risk assets, but silver is not a typical risk asset. The VXSLV at 39.97 is high, indicating silver-specific risk. The Sharpe ratio of 0.7122 over 30 days is positive, meaning that silver has provided a positive risk-adjusted return recently. However, the 52-week drawdown of 51.43% shows that the long-term trend is still down.
In summary, the gold-silver ratio suggests that silver is relatively expensive versus gold on a 3-year basis, which could limit upside. However, the ratio is not at an extreme, so it is not a strong sell signal. Traders might consider pairs trades, such as long gold/short silver, if they expect the ratio to rise. But without oil-gold and copper-gold ratios, we cannot provide a full cross-asset picture.
5. Sentiment & News Monitor
The five-day gain of 5.79 points suggests a short-term bullish sentiment, but the 20-day loss of 3.28 points indicates a bearish medium-term sentiment. The reduction in managed money net length suggests that speculative sentiment is turning less bullish. The high VXSLV at 39.97 indicates fear and uncertainty. The VIX at 14.87 is low, suggesting complacency in broader markets. Overall, sentiment is mixed but leaning cautious.
We cannot fabricate media quotes. However, we can note that the ECB President Lagarde speaks on 2026-09-22, which could generate headlines. The SNB policy decision on 2026-09-24 is also a key event. The US unemployment claims on 2026-09-24 and the revised UoM consumer sentiment on 2026-09-25 could influence sentiment. Without actual headlines, we cannot assess the bias. We advise monitoring news for any unexpected geopolitical or macroeconomic developments.
6. Historical & Seasonal Patterns
Seasonality: September is historically a mixed month for silver. Without specific seasonal data, we cannot provide a quantitative seasonal pattern. The 52-week drawdown of 51.43% suggests that silver is in a deep correction, which historically has been followed by rebounds, but past performance is not indicative of future results. We cannot provide a 10-year analogue analysis without data. We recommend that clients refer to their own historical studies.
7. Bull/Bear Scenario Analysis
Bullish scenarios:
- If the US 10-year yield declines significantly from 4.96%, silver could rally as the opportunity cost of holding it falls. A drop below 4.5% could trigger a move towards 70.
- If the US dollar index weakens below 100, silver could become more affordable for foreign buyers, boosting demand. A break below 99.5 could target 68.
- If inflation expectations rise, as measured by the revised UoM inflation expectations on 2026-09-25, silver could attract safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand. A reading above 3.0% could push silver above 67.76.
- If managed money net length increases again, indicating renewed speculative interest, silver could break above the pivot of 66.98 and test 68.36. A rise in net length above 15,000 contracts would be a bullish signal.
- If SHFE inventories decline in the coming weeks, it could signal tightening supply, supporting prices. A drop below 1,400,000 kg could be bullish.
Bearish scenarios:
- If the US 10-year yield rises above 5%, silver could face selling pressure, targeting 64.29 and then 63.81.
- If the US dollar index strengthens above 101, silver could decline as foreign demand weakens. A break above 101.5 could target 63.
- If managed money net length continues to decline, it could signal a bearish shift in sentiment. A drop below 12,000 contracts could accelerate downside towards 62.
- If SHFE inventories continue to rise, it would confirm ample supply, pressuring prices. A rise above 1,450,000 kg could be bearish.
- If the term structure steepens in contango, it would encourage selling, potentially pushing spot prices lower. A widening of M1-M2 to -1 or more could be bearish.
Near-term balance: The close below the pivot and S1 suggests a bearish near-term bias, with support at 64.29. However, the five-day rally shows that buyers are present. The medium-term balance is neutral-to-bearish, given the 20-day negative change and high yields. The market is likely to remain range-bound between 64.29 and 67.76 until a catalyst emerges.
8. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Short-term range trade (bearish bias). Entry: sell on a break below 65.8 (current close) with a stop at 66.5 (above S1) and a target of 64.3 (near the 2026-09-16 close). Timeframe: 1-5 days. Conviction: 6/10. Position size: risk 1% of capital, with a stop distance of 0.7 points, which is less than the ATR of 1.7, so use a smaller size to account for volatility. Alternatively, use an ATR-based stop of 1.7 points, which would be at 67.5, but that is above R1, so a tighter stop is preferable for a short-term trade.
Strategy 2: Bullish reversal play. Entry: buy on a break above 67.76 (R1) with a stop at 66.4 (below S1) and a target of 68.36 (R1 on 2026-09-18). Timeframe: 1-5 days. Conviction: 5/10. Position size: risk 1% of capital, with a stop distance of 1.36 points, which is close to the ATR. This trade requires a clear breakout above resistance, which may need a catalyst such as a drop in yields or a weaker dollar.
Risk management: Given the high volatility (20-day vol 32.91%, VXSLV 39.97), use appropriate position sizing. The VaR95 of -6.28% suggests that a 6.28% daily loss is possible in extreme conditions. Therefore, do not overleverage. Use stop-loss orders and consider options strategies such as buying puts or call spreads to limit risk. The contango structure means that holding long futures positions incurs negative roll yield, so short-term trades are preferable to long-term holds. Monitor the upcoming events: SNB decision, US unemployment claims, and UoM sentiment. These could cause volatility.
9. This Week's Data Calendar
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 07:00 | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 03:15 | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 03:15 | French Flash Services PMI | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 03:30 | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 03:30 | German Flash Services PMI | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 04:30 | GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 04:30 | GBP Flash Services PMI | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-23 | 21:30 | AUD Employment Change | HIGH |
| 2026-09-23 | 21:30 | AUD Unemployment Rate | HIGH |
| 2026-09-24 | 03:30 | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | HIGH |
| 2026-09-24 | 03:30 | SNB Policy Rate | HIGH |
| 2026-09-24 | 04:00 | SNB Press Conference | HIGH |
| 2026-09-24 | 08:30 | CAD Core Retail Sales m/m | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-24 | 08:30 | CAD Retail Sales m/m | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-24 | 08:30 | USD Unemployment Claims | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-24 | 09:00 | CNY CB Leading Index m/m | LOW |
| 2026-09-24 | 19:01 | CNY Bank Holiday | LOW |
| 2026-09-25 | 05:15 | GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | HIGH |
| 2026-09-25 | 10:00 | USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-25 | 10:00 | USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | MEDIUM |
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade.