1. Executive Summary
Gold settled at 4286.2 on 2026-09-25, up 0.54%, while silver eased 0.21% to 64.25 and crude oil fell 2.29% to 92.44. Natural gas was the session's largest decliner, dropping 3.93% to 3.886, and copper slipped 0.34% to 6.696. Soybeans were essentially flat at 1319, up 0.11%.
The dominant macro backdrop remains restrictive. The 10-year TIPS real yield stands at 2.76% (2026-09-23), and the 10-year nominal yield at 4.96% sits in the 100th percentile of its one-year range, a structurally hostile configuration for non-yielding assets. The dollar index closed at 101.04, down 0.25%, offering only marginal relief. The 10-year/2-year spread at 0.31% (2026-09-24) remains positive but narrow, and the high-yield credit spread at 2.73% (2026-09-23) signals no imminent liquidity stress.
CFTC data as of 2026-09-15 shows managed-money net length declining across every major contract we track: gold net long 133,116 (-1,856 w/w), crude oil 106,279 (-5,452), copper 65,106 (-17,048), silver 13,124 (-1,262), and natural gas net short -100,205 (-3,463). The copper liquidation is the most violent weekly reduction in the dataset and coincides with a 63.36 crowding score. Positioning in gold remains the most crowded at 92.58, with net length equal to 32.48% of open interest.
The primary risk factor for today is the tension between elevated real rates and stretched positioning. Gold's 20-day drawdown of 5.09% and 20-day realized volatility of 18.4% suggest the market is repricing, while crude's 48.51% 20-day volatility and 12.92% 20-day drawdown reflect a violent geopolitical premium unwind. Brent at 97.47 fell 8.56% on the session, with the WTI-Brent spread at -5.84. The 3:2:1 crack spread at 71.65 sits in the 98th one-year percentile, an extreme reading that argues for product strength even as crude weakens.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). COMEX gold closed at 4286.2 on 2026-09-25, up 0.54% on the session. Open interest stood at 317,452 contracts, matching reported volume of 317,452. The move followed a sharp prior-session decline of 0.43% to 4263 and a 1.33% drop on 2026-09-23. Over five sessions gold is down 2.36% and over twenty sessions down 7.36%, with the 20-day range spanning 4688 to 4273.3. The channel position reads 11.4%, placing spot near the lower boundary of its recent range. The ATR of 94.18 remains elevated relative to the 20-day realized volatility of 18.4%. According to the World Gold Council, cited in overnight headlines, the AI boom has failed to lift gold demand.
Silver (SI=F). COMEX silver closed at 64.25, down 0.21%. The contract traded an intraday range of 63 to 64. Silver has been notably volatile: it fell 2.35% on 2026-09-23 and 1.44% on 2026-09-24 before stabilizing. The gold-silver ratio stands at 67.18 (2026-09-24), in the 59th one-year percentile and 20th three-year percentile, a depressed reading that historically has not favored silver outperformance. Silver's 52-week drawdown of 51.43% is the deepest in our coverage set.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at 92.44, down 2.29%, with open interest of 304,677. The session high of 94.75 was set at the open, and the contract sold off through the day to a low of 91.51. Over five sessions WTI is down 7.84%, though it remains up 10.67% over twenty sessions. The 20-day range is 106.75 to 82.25, with channel position at 41.6%. Brent (BZ=F) fell 8.56% to 97.47, a far larger decline, widening the WTI-Brent spread to -5.84. Headlines noted that roughly 40 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz in the prior 48 hours, with about 60 vessels passing and 40 receiving US Navy escort, the highest single-day flow since July. The term structure remains in backwardation, with M1-M2 at 0.94 (1%) and roll yield of 12.04%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Henry Hub natural gas closed at 3.886, down 3.93%, the largest percentage decline in the complex. The contract had rallied 4.79% on 2026-09-24 to 4.045 before giving back gains. The EIA noted that summer Henry Hub prices ran 6% below year-ago levels, with weak demand suppressing net length. The curve is in contango, with M1-M2 at -0.082 (-2.52%) and roll yield of -30.2%.
Copper (HG=F). COMEX copper closed at 6.696, down 0.34%, with open interest of 174,125. The contract is up 2.37% over five sessions and 2.8% over twenty, with channel position at 89.3%, near the top of its 20-day range of 6.83 to 6.281. The ICSG reported a global copper market deficit of 51,000 tonnes for July 2026. LME copper closed at 14,625.50, down 0.14%.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at 1319, up 0.11%, with open interest of 467,717. The contract traded a range of 1297.5 to 1320.5. Over twenty sessions soybeans are up 3.82%, with channel position at 62.9%. The crush margin stands at 7.892 USD/bu, in the 80th one-year percentile.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration remains the single most important driver of commodity pricing. The US 10-year TIPS real yield stands at 2.76% as of 2026-09-23, a level that imposes a substantial opportunity cost on gold and silver. The nominal 10-year yield at 4.96% (2026-09-14) sits in the 100th one-year percentile, the 100th three-year percentile, and the 100th five-year percentile, with a three-year Z-score of 2.6, classified as extreme high. This is a historically restrictive rate environment.
The dollar index closed at 101.04 on 2026-09-25, down 0.25% on the day but up 0.81% over five sessions and 1.89% over twenty. The DXY sits in the 93rd one-year percentile but only the 47th three-year percentile, indicating the current strength is a recent phenomenon. The 30-day correlation between gold and the dollar is -0.5312, with a beta of -2.13, confirming the strong inverse relationship. Crude's correlation to the dollar is weaker at -0.2664 over 30 days.
The Fed funds effective rate stands at 3.63% (2026-08-01). The Fed's total balance sheet is 6,746,548 million dollars (2026-09-16), and overnight reverse repo volume has collapsed to 0.63 billion dollars (2026-09-24), indicating the financial system's excess liquidity buffer is effectively drained. The 10-year/2-year spread at 0.31% (2026-09-24) remains positive, signaling no imminent recession signal from the curve. The high-yield credit spread at 2.73% (2026-09-23) is tight, indicating no liquidity crisis.
Inflation data shows CPI at 334.13 (2026-08-01) and core PCE at 130.66 (2026-07-01). Unemployment stands at 4.1% (2026-08-01), with nonfarm payrolls at 159,075 thousand. Overnight headlines included Trump economic adviser Hassett criticizing the Fed as “abnormally partisan,” questioning rate hikes when core inflation is annualizing at 2%, and warning that pushing short rates to 6% would damage markets. Separately, Xi Jinping formally invited Trump to the November APEC summit and confirmed attendance at the December G20 in Florida, improving risk sentiment.
Equity markets were firm: S&P 500 futures closed at 7812.3, up 0.68%, in the 99th one-year percentile. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.48% to 30,883.75. The VIX closed at 15.67, up 3.23%, in the 19th one-year percentile, indicating subdued volatility expectations. Gold's GVZ at 22.58 and oil's OVX at 54.45 reflect elevated commodity-specific volatility.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of 2026-09-15, managed-money positioning deteriorated across the entire commodity complex. This uniform reduction in net length is a notable signal of broad de-risking rather than contract-specific repositioning.
Gold. Managed-money net length stood at 133,116 contracts, down 1,856 week-over-week. Long positions totaled 142,394 against shorts of 9,278, giving a net-long-to-open-interest ratio of 32.48%. The crowding score is 92.58, the highest in our coverage set, indicating an extremely crowded long. Producer hedging accounts for 14.85% of open interest. The CTA proxy reading is 62. Gold's net positioning sits in the 79th one-year percentile and 80th five-year percentile.
Crude Oil. Net length was 106,279, down 5,452 week-over-week. Longs of 221,896 against shorts of 115,617 produce a net ratio of just 5.43% of open interest. The crowding score is 21.27, the lowest among the metals and energy contracts, indicating positioning is not stretched. Producer hedging is 50.06%. The CTA proxy is 98. Notably, the net ratio sits in the 98th one-year percentile despite the low absolute ratio, reflecting how compressed positioning has been over the past year.
Copper. Net length fell 17,048 to 65,106, the largest weekly decline in the dataset. Longs of 83,704 against shorts of 18,598 give a net ratio of 22.49%. The crowding score is 63.36, and the CTA proxy is 98. Producer hedging is 58.27%. The net ratio sits in the 31st one-year percentile but the 85th five-year percentile.
Silver. Net length was 13,124, down 1,262 week-over-week. Longs of 20,205 against shorts of 7,081 give a net ratio of 12.65%. Crowding is 55.04, with a CTA proxy of 62 and producer hedging at 25.81%.
Natural Gas. The market remains net short at -100,205 contracts, with the short side deepening by 3,463 week-over-week. Longs of 264,362 against shorts of 364,567 give a net ratio of -5.51%. Crowding is 33.17, with a CTA proxy of 74 and producer hedging at 26.69%. The net ratio sits in the 38th one-year percentile.
The contrarian signal here is copper: a 17,048-contract liquidation on a 63.36 crowding score, combined with an ICSG-reported 51,000-tonne July deficit, sets up a potential positioning-versus-fundamentals divergence. Gold's 92.58 crowding score is the more immediate caution flag.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar is light. The only scheduled releases in the coming days are China Industrial Profits year-to-date/year on 09-28 at 09:30 Beijing time (medium importance, prior and forecast unavailable) and China Manufacturing PMI on 09-30 at 09:30 Beijing time (high importance, prior and forecast unavailable). No US data releases are scheduled for today.
Geopolitical developments warrant close attention. Overnight reporting indicated that approximately 40 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz in the prior 48 hours, with about 60 vessels passing and 40 receiving US Navy escort, the highest single-day crude flow since July. This normalization of flows reduces the geopolitical supply risk premium that had supported crude, consistent with the 8.56% Brent decline. Traders should monitor whether this de-escalation persists.
On the policy front, the Xi-Trump diplomatic engagement — the November APEC invitation and confirmed December G20 attendance — represents a potential tailwind for industrial metals and agricultural commodities via improved trade sentiment. Any concrete tariff or supply-chain signals would be material for copper and soybeans specifically.
Inventory data to watch: the most recent EIA report (2026-09-18) showed crude inventories at 426,398 thousand barrels, up 2,969 week-over-week; gasoline at 206,046 thousand barrels, down 1,686; distillate at 107,431 thousand barrels, down 428; and refinery utilization at 94%. The next EIA release is awaited. COMEX copper registered stocks stand at 432,817.96 MT, and LME copper warehouse stocks at 251,175 MT.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at 4286.2, below its pivot of 4320.4. Resistance R1 sits at 4351.7 and support S1 at 4289.3 — notably, spot closed marginally below S1, a bearish signal. The ATR is 94.18. The trend is decisively down: gold is down 2.36% over five sessions and 7.36% over twenty, with the 20-day range of 4688 to 4273.3 and channel position at 11.4%, near the range floor. The 20-day drawdown is 5.09% and the 52-week drawdown 25.06%. The 30-day Sharpe ratio is -0.5121, and 20-day realized volatility is 18.4%. With the 30-day gold-dollar correlation at -0.53 and gold-10Y correlation at -0.35, the path of real rates remains the key variable. Given the extreme 92.58 crowding score and negative momentum, the technical posture argues for caution on longs; rallies toward 4320-4351 may meet selling pressure. A sustained break below 4273.3 would open further downside.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI closed at 92.44, below its pivot of 92.9. Resistance R1 is 94.29 and support S1 is 91.05. The ATR is 5.137. The trend is mixed: down 7.84% over five sessions but up 10.67% over twenty, with channel position at 41.6% and a 20-day range of 106.75 to 82.25. The 20-day drawdown is 12.92%, 52-week drawdown 39.31%, and 20-day realized volatility an extreme 48.51%. The 30-day Sharpe is 2.699, reflecting the strong prior uptrend. Backwardation persists (M1-M2 at 0.94, roll yield 12.04%), which supports roll-based long positioning. The 30-day crude-dollar correlation is -0.27. With positioning uncrowded at 21.27 and the curve in backwardation, dips toward 91.05 may attract buyers, though the geopolitical premium unwind is a live risk.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at 6.696, below its pivot of 6.765. Resistance R1 is 6.804 and support S1 is 6.733 — spot closed below S1, a bearish near-term signal. The ATR is 0.1274. The trend is up on a medium-term basis: +2.37% over five sessions and +2.8% over twenty, with channel position at 89.3% and a 20-day range of 6.83 to 6.281. The 20-day drawdown is 6.96%, 52-week drawdown 13.49%, and 20-day realized volatility 25.45%. The 30-day Sharpe is 0.9897. The curve is flat (M1-M2 at -0.003). The 30-day copper-gold correlation is 0.39. The extreme 97th one-year percentile valuation and the 17,048-contract CFTC liquidation argue for near-term consolidation despite the supportive ICSG deficit.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The dollar-commodity axis remains the dominant cross-asset relationship. The DXY at 101.04 (down 0.25%) shows a 30-day correlation of -0.53 with gold and -0.2664 with crude. Gold's beta to the dollar is -2.13, meaning a 1% dollar move implies roughly a 2.13% inverse gold move on a 30-day basis. The dollar sits in the 93rd one-year percentile, a headwind.
The gold-real-yield relationship is equally critical. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.76% and the gold-10Y correlation of -0.35 (beta -0.59) confirm that rising real rates pressure gold. With the nominal 10-year at the 100th five-year percentile, the rate backdrop is the single largest constraint on precious metals.
The energy complex shows internal divergence. WTI at 92.44 versus natural gas at 3.886 — the crude-gas ratio is elevated. Crude's backwardation (roll yield 12.04%) contrasts sharply with natural gas contango (roll yield -30.2%), reflecting very different supply-demand balances. The 3:2:1 crack spread at 71.65 sits in the 98th one-year percentile, an extreme high, while the RBOB-heating oil spread is -1.235 USD/gal. Heating oil at 4.685 is in the 95th one-year percentile and gasoline at 3.393 in the 86th, both extreme-high readings that suggest product markets are far tighter than crude.
The base metals basket is mixed: LME aluminum at 3276 (+0.75%), LME copper at 14,625.50 (-0.14%), LME nickel at 16,365.00 (-0.91%), LME zinc at 3892 (-1.84%), LME lead at 1929.5 (-0.16%), and LME tin at 54,230.00 (+0.71%). The copper-gold ratio at 0.0016 sits in the 98th one-year percentile but only the 54th three-year percentile. The oil-gold ratio at 0.0221 is in the 92nd one-year percentile.
8. Risk Factors
1. Real-rate risk. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.76% and nominal 10-year at the 100th five-year percentile represent a structural headwind. Any further rise in real yields would pressure gold and silver, which already show negative 30-day Sharpe ratios (-0.5121 and -0.3314 respectively).
2. Positioning unwind risk. Gold's crowding score of 92.58 and net-long ratio of 32.48% of open interest leave it vulnerable to further liquidation. Copper's 17,048-contract weekly reduction may not be complete.
3. Geopolitical premium collapse. The normalization of Strait of Hormuz flows (40 million barrels in 48 hours) removes supply-risk support from crude. Brent's 8.56% single-session decline demonstrates how quickly this premium can evaporate.
4. Volatility risk. Crude's 20-day realized volatility of 48.51% and OVX at 54.45 signal extreme price swings. Silver's 52-week drawdown of 51.43% and 20-day volatility of 31.16% indicate similar fragility.
5. Liquidity drain. Overnight reverse repo volume at 0.63 billion dollars indicates the financial system's liquidity buffer is effectively exhausted, which could amplify any funding stress.
9. Week Ahead
The week ahead is light on scheduled data. China Industrial Profits year-to-date/year is due 09-28 at 09:30 Beijing time (medium importance). China Manufacturing PMI follows on 09-30 at 09:30 Beijing time (high importance). Both prior values and forecasts are unavailable in the current dataset.
No US economic releases, OPEC+ meetings, or central bank decisions are listed in the seven-day calendar. Traders should nonetheless monitor for unscheduled EIA inventory data, USDA reports, and any OPEC+ commentary given crude's recent volatility. The Xi-Trump diplomatic track — the November APEC invitation and December G20 confirmation — may generate trade-related headlines relevant to copper and soybeans.
Key levels to watch into next week: gold's 4273.3 twenty-day low, crude's 91.05 S1, and copper's 6.733 S1. The 3:2:1 crack spread at 71.65 (98th one-year percentile) and heating oil at the 95th percentile bear watching for product-market tightness.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Closed 4286.2 (+0.54%), below S1 of 4289.3. Crowding at 92.58 and negative 30-day Sharpe (-0.5121) argue for caution on longs; rallies toward 4320-4351 may face supply.
- Crude Oil: Closed 92.44 (-2.29%), below pivot 92.9. Backwardation (roll yield 12.04%) and uncrowded positioning (21.27) support dips toward 91.05, but the geopolitical premium unwind is a live risk.
- Copper: Closed 6.696 (-0.34%), below S1 of 6.733. The 17,048-contract CFTC liquidation versus the ICSG 51,000-tonne deficit sets up a positioning-fundamentals divergence.
- Natural Gas: Closed 3.886 (-3.93%), the session's worst performer. Contango (roll yield -30.2%) and a -100,205 net short reflect persistent bearishness.
- Silver: Closed 64.25 (-0.21%). Gold-silver ratio at 67.18 (depressed percentile) and a 51.43% 52-week drawdown argue for relative caution.
- Soybeans: Closed 1319 (+0.11%). Crush margin at 7.892 USD/bu (80th one-year percentile) supports processing demand.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.