I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the close on September 24, 2026, Rebar (SHFE.RB) main continuous contract settled at CNY 3,118, up 0.03% from the previous session, with a cumulative gain of approximately 0.71% over the past five trading sessions (from CNY 3,096 on September 18 to CNY 3,118 on September 24). The 20-session high stands at CNY 3,203 and the low at CNY 3,081; the current close sits at the 37.7th percentile of the 20-session range (based on a range width of CNY 122), placing it in the lower half of the band.
On the moving-average structure, the 5-day MA is at CNY 3,111.6 and the 20-day MA at CNY 3,134.9. The close of CNY 3,118 is CNY 16.85 below the MA20, a discount of roughly 0.54%, marking the third consecutive session closing below the MA20. The short-term MA cluster remains in a bearish alignment, though the slope is flattening. ATR14 is at CNY 29, a clear sign of recent volatility compression; intraday high-low spreads have generally ranged between CNY 20 and CNY 30. For September 24, the pivot P is CNY 3,112.7, first resistance R1 is CNY 3,125.3, and first support S1 is CNY 3,105.3; the close sits slightly above the pivot, indicating a weak balance.
On key levels, upside resistance lies sequentially at CNY 3,125.3 (R1), CNY 3,134.9 (MA20), and CNY 3,203 (20-session high); downside support lies at CNY 3,105.3 (S1) and CNY 3,081 (20-session low). Should price hold above CNY 3,125 and break the MA20 on expanding volume, it could open room for a recovery toward the CNY 3,165–3,180 band; a break below CNY 3,105 confirmed at the close could see a retest of the CNY 3,081 prior low for support. Price is currently at the apex of a converging triangle, with a directional choice imminent.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and FX, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 100.97 on September 25, down 0.32%, weakening for a second consecutive session, a marginal tailwind for USD-denominated commodities. The US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is at 5.18%, up 0.43%, remaining elevated; high real rates weigh on risk-asset valuations, but as a China-priced instrument, Rebar has limited direct transmission from UST yields, with effects mostly indirect via sentiment and risk appetite.
On China policy and demand expectations, China's manufacturing PMI (consensus 50.1, prior 49.8) and non-manufacturing PMI (consensus 49.3, prior 49.0) will be released on September 30; RatingDog manufacturing PMI is expected at 51.7 (prior 51.5) and services PMI at 51.2 (prior 51.4). If the official manufacturing PMI crosses the 50 boom-bust line as expected, it would signal a marginal improvement in manufacturing activity, lending expectation support to Rebar downstream demand (construction, infrastructure, machinery); a miss would force the market to reprice the substance of the “Golden September, Silver October” peak season.
On the supply side, international headlines over the past 48 hours show ArcelorMittal suspending production at its Kryvyi Rih steel plant due to Russian attacks, a regional disruption to global steel supply with limited direct impact on China's Rebar supply-demand balance, mostly a sentiment effect. In China, open interest of 1,615,888 lots rose 8,724 lots from the prior day, a mild recovery in participation willingness, but volume of 570,630 lots contracted sharply from 884,858 lots on September 18, pointing to heavy pre-holiday caution.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On open interest, total OI on September 24 was 1,615,888 lots, up 8,724 lots from 1,607,164 lots on September 23, a gain of about 0.54%, an open interest build for a second straight session. Combined with a marginal price rise and shrinking volume, the build has produced only a limited advance; both longs and shorts are positioned within the CNY 3,110–3,120 band, but neither side is exerting dominance.
On the rhythm of positioning changes, OI of 1,642,367 lots on September 18 was the recent peak; it then fell over the next three sessions to 1,589,847 lots (September 22), before recovering over September 23–24 to 1,615,888 lots. This suggests some capital is testing entries near CNY 3,100, though overall positioning remains below the September 18 level, with only mild fund inflows.
On volatility, the international benchmark ^VIX is at 14.87, down 5.11%, reflecting a recovery in global risk appetite, but China's black complex is driven by its own supply-demand and policy cadence, limiting transmission. ATR14 at CNY 29 is near recent lows; if volatility expands once PMI data lands, a single-session range of CNY 30–50 could emerge, with attention on the breakout direction.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Within the black complex, the price ratio between Rebar and upstream raw materials is a key window into steel mill margins and production willingness.
Across markets, a softer dollar (100.97, -0.32%) offers marginal support to USD-denominated nonferrous metals such as copper and aluminum; international headlines over the past 48 hours show broad declines in overseas metals, LME tin up over 1%, and LME zinc down nearly 2%, with clear divergence across nonferrous. As a China-priced instrument, Rebar has weak direct linkage to macro ratios such as copper/gold and oil/gold, transmitting mostly through the chain of “China demand expectations — macro sentiment — black complex valuation.” If the dollar stays weak, the overall commodity valuation center could drift higher, a mild positive for Rebar; a dollar rebound would cap upside in the black complex.
V. Sentiment
China-related headlines over the past 48 hours focused on nonferrous metals: SMM reported “gold, silver and oil down on the week; overseas metals broadly lower; LME tin up over 1%; LME zinc down nearly 2%; US stocks higher,” leaving overall commodity sentiment neutral to slightly bearish, though Rebar was not directly mentioned and black-complex sentiment remains relatively independent. Another headline, “Peru's mining minister: Peru's copper output this year is expected to be between 2.5 and 2.7 million tonnes,” is a copper supply-side item with no direct transmission to Rebar.
Internationally, ArcelorMittal's suspension of Kryvyi Rih production is a supply-contraction event, sentiment-positive for steel prices, but highly regional with limited impact on China's futures. Overall, market sentiment sits in a “waiting for PMI guidance” window, with neither bulls nor bears lacking a strong catalyst and sentiment in the neutral zone.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
From the 20-session positioning view, the current close of CNY 3,118 sits at the 37.7th percentile of the 20-session high-low range (CNY 3,081–3,203), below the mid-axis of CNY 3,162, placing it in the lower-middle part of the band. Over the past five sessions, price has recovered from CNY 3,096 (September 18) to CNY 3,118, a cumulative gain of 0.71%, but has not yet recouped the 1.02% single-day drop on September 18, indicating a weak rebound.
On MA deviation, the close is CNY 16.85 below the MA20, a deviation of about 0.54%, less than 1x ATR14 (CNY 29), a mild discount state. Using ATR14 as the volatility unit, the current price is about 2.93x ATR14 from the 20-session high of CNY 3,203, with support closer below, so near-term downside room is relatively limited.
From the historical pairing of positioning and price, an open interest build on shrinking volume with a marginal rise usually signals widening bull-bear divergence without a clear direction; a volume-backed break above CNY 3,125 would confirm a short-term bottom, while a low-volume break below CNY 3,105 could accelerate the move toward CNY 3,081.
VII. Long-Short Scenario Analysis
Bull case: first, the dollar index has weakened to 100.97, offering marginal support to commodity valuations; second, the September 30 manufacturing PMI consensus of 50.1 would repair demand expectations if it crosses the boom-bust line; third, the ArcelorMittal shutdown, though regional, reinforces the global steel supply-contraction narrative; fourth, open interest has risen for two straight sessions, with capital testing entries near CNY 3,000; fifth, ATR14 has compressed to CNY 29, and low volatility often precedes a directional choice, with greater upside elasticity if the break is higher.
Bear case: first, the close has traded at a discount to the MA20 for three straight sessions, with MA resistance intact; second, volume has contracted from 884,858 lots to 570,630 lots, a pre-holiday liquidity squeeze that leaves the rebound without volume support; third, the UST yield at 5.18% remains elevated, restraining global risk appetite; fourth, the non-manufacturing PMI consensus of 49.3 is still below the boom-bust line, with weak construction and infrastructure demand expectations; fifth, the 20-session high of CNY 3,203 is far from the current price, with heavy hedging pressure overhead.
Near- to medium-term balance: in the short term (1–5 sessions), bulls and bears are in a weak balance, with CNY 3,105–3,125 the core battleground and PMI data the key variable to break the stalemate; in the medium term (1–4 weeks), confirmation of a PMI recovery could see price repair toward CNY 3,165–3,200, while a PMI miss could bring a retest of CNY 3,081 or even CNY 3,050. The current setup leans slightly toward “bad news dull, good news awaiting validation.”
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Primary strategy: buy on dips. If price pulls back to stabilize near CNY 3,105 (intraday low holding above CNY 3,095), initiate a light long trial at CNY 3,105, stop-loss at CNY 3,075, target CNY 3,165, a risk-reward ratio of about 2.0, over a 1–5 session horizon, with position size no more than 15% of total capital.
Invalidation: if price breaks below CNY 3,095 and the break is confirmed at the close, exit longs and stand aside; if price breaks directly above CNY 3,135 (MA20) on volume and holds, chasing longs may be considered, but entry and stop-loss levels should be reassessed. Liquidity may contract further in the final two pre-holiday sessions (September 29–30); position control is advised, and heavy positions over the holiday should be avoided.
This Week's Data Calendar
- Beijing 2026-09-28 Mon 09:30 / New York 2026-09-27 Sun 21:30: China Industrial Profits YoY
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:30 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:30: China Manufacturing PMI (forecast 50.1, prior 49.8)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:30 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:30: China Non-Manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.3, prior 49.0)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:45: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.7, prior 51.5)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:45: RatingDog Services PMI (forecast 51.2, prior 51.4)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 21:45 / New York 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45: Chicago PMI (forecast 51.3, prior 47.1)
- Beijing 2026-10-01 Thu 07:01 / New York 2026-09-30 Wed 19:01: China Bank Holiday
- Beijing 2026-10-01 Thu 22:00 / New York 2026-10-01 Thu 10:00: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 55.0, prior 54.6)
- Beijing 2026-10-02 Fri 07:01 / New York 2026-10-01 Thu 19:01: China Bank Holiday
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.