📅 2026-10-01 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-01 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-01 07:01:00 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-01
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-01: Gold Holds 4186 (settle), WTI Backwardation Narrows to 1.8

1) Gold settled 4186.7 (+0.17%) and is 4184.4 in early Asian trade, holding the 11th-percentile 20D position with GVZ 24.37 only at the 31st percentile — the 4143.1 20D low is the line that decides whether the oversold bounce survives; watch 4232.5 (R1).
2) WTI settled 90.42 (+1.16%) but M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.8 from 3.65, so prompt tightness is fading even as the 3:2:1 crack sits at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) — a settle below 88.68 (S1) breaks the buy-dip structure.

Data revision (2026-10-07 02:09 EDT): after publication the closes below were updated to final exchange values. They affect trade ideas, the headline, spreads, or moved more than 0.5%; read the listed sections against the revised values.

- CC=F 09-30: 5338 → 5367 (+0.54%)

- PL=F 09-30: 1702.3 → 1718.9 (+0.98%)

- VX=F 09-30: 17.9 → 17.8 (-0.56%)

- Plus 7 minor revision(s) (≤0.5%, conclusions unchanged); see the revision details on the page

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Gold settled 4186.7 (+0.17%) and trades 4184.4 in early Asian trade, holding above the 4143.1 20D low with the 20D position at 10.5% and GVZ 24.37 at only the 31st percentile. For futures this is a market where downside momentum has stalled but sponsorship is thin — CFTC managed money cut net length by 5,727 lots into 2026-09-22 while price rose 1.01%, a divergence that argues against chasing strength. Watch 4232.5 (R1) on the topside and 4159.6 (S1) as the first shelf; a settle below 4143.1 invalidates the bounce.

2. WTI settled 90.42 (+1.16%) but the front spread narrowed: M1-M2 backwardation fell to 1.8 from 3.65 day-on-day, even as the 3:2:1 crack printed 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) and heating oil backwardation widened to 0.3213. Prompt tightness is easing while product margins stay extreme — that combination favours the back of the curve over the front. Watch 88.68 (S1); a settle below it breaks the buy-dip structure.

3. Silver settled 60.57 (-0.96%) at the 2nd percentile of its 20D range, with COMEX registered +90,822 kg d/d and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d. The gold/silver ratio at 68.35 sits in the 14th percentile of five years — silver has been structurally strong versus gold over that window, but the near-term tape is the weak leg. Watch 59.93 (S1); a settle above 61.66 (R1) is the first sign of a turn.

2. Best Trade Today

Short COMEX白银 (SI=F) · entry 61.02 (limit) · stop 62.75 · target 59.29 · R:R 1:1 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 6/10

Thesis: Silver settled at the 2nd percentile of its 20D range with COMEX registered stocks up 90,822 kg d/d and SHFE warrants up 30,504 kg d/d, so the physical tightness story is not confirmed by the inventory tape; the 68.35 gold/silver ratio still has silver as the laggard and the 61.02 pivot caps the bounce.
Invalidation: A settle above 62.75 (R2) puts price back inside the 20D range and neutralises the breakdown; ATR 2.32 (3.84% of price) means the stop sits roughly three-quarters of a daily range beyond entry.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Bullish | driver: settle 4186.7 (+0.17%) holding above the 4143.1 20D low with the 20D position at 10.5% and GVZ 24.37 at the 31st percentile | key level: 4232.5 (R1); support 4159.6 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 4143.1 | vs last issue: unchanged — the bullish stance stands, though the prior 4145 limit entry was never touched and remains unfilled.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 60.57 (-0.96%) at the 2nd percentile of the 20D range, COMEX registered +90,822 kg d/d and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d, ratio 68.35 still favours gold | key level: 61.02 (pivot); support 59.93 (S1) | invalidation: settle above 62.75 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 90.42 (+1.16%) with the 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) and heating oil backwardation widening to 0.3213, though M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.8 from 3.65 | key level: 90.32 (pivot); support 88.68 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 88.68 | vs last issue: unchanged — buy-dips retained, entry zone 89.4-90.3.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 97.68 (+1.58%) with WTI-Brent at -6.78 (16th percentile 1Y) leaving Brent the tighter marker | key level: 97.77 (pivot); support 97.59 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 94.38 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.03 (+0.5%) with contango narrowing to -0.021 from -0.106 and the 20D position at 25.2% | key level: 2.98 (S1); resistance 3.07 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.11 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.62 (+0.27%) with contango narrowing to -0.0315 from -0.0455, LME stocks -875 MT d/d and SHFE warrants -721 MT d/d, but managed money net length up 17,416 lots w/w into a 27.4% netPct (97th percentile 5Y) | key level: 6.64 (pivot); support 6.59 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 6.55 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged from Neutral — the curve flip has partially reversed but positioning is now crowded long.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1293 (-0.37%) at the 25th percentile of the 20D range with contango unchanged at -24 and crush at 2.44 USD/bu (84th percentile 3Y) | key level: 1284.7 (S1); resistance 1306.4 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 1319.8 (R2) | vs last issue: new.

Corn (ZC) — Bearish | driver: settle 500.75 with the last-day jump flagged as a contract roll; 20D position 3.9% and contango widened to -14 from -13.75 | key level: 498.75 (20D low); resistance 508.58 (pivot) | invalidation: settle above 518.42 (R1) | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 09-30	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-01 07:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4186.7	+0.17%	-3.05%	4184.4	-0.05%
Silver	60.57	-0.96%	-6.77%	60.71	+0.24%
WTI Crude	90.42	+1.16%	-1.89%	90.06	-0.4%
Brent Crude	97.68	+1.58%	-5.24%	97.6	-0.08%
Natural Gas	3.03	+0.5%	-4.03%	3.01	-0.59%
Copper	6.62	+0.27%	-1.95%	6.63	+0.09%
Soybeans	1293	-0.37%	-1.9%	—	—
Corn	500.75	-4.07%	-5.34%	—	—
Wheat	675.75	-2.45%	-4.62%	—	—

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-09-30 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = last trade before 08:00 Beijing time, not a settlement; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Asia is trading a very tight range against the prior settle. Gold is 4184.4 (-0.05% vs settle), WTI 90.06 (-0.4% vs settle) and silver 60.71 (+0.24% vs settle) — all inside a fraction of one ATR, which is normal for the first hours of a report-date bar. The only outsized relative move is platinum at 1717.8 (+0.91% vs settle), with palladium flat at 1212.5 (+0.01% vs settle); nothing in the Asia tape yet contradicts the settle-based structure.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

GC=F LONG entry 4145, stop 4045, target 4250 (1-5d, conv 5) → PENDING (entry not yet touched); last settle 4186.7.
Stats (system-computed, quoted as given): 1 idea · limit fill 0/1 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a.

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve. WTI M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.8 (2.05%) from 3.65, a 1.85 day-on-day compression — prompt tightness is easing even as the 3:2:1 crack holds 61.46. Brent's WTI spread at -6.78 (16th percentile 1Y) keeps Brent the tighter marker. Gold contango widened to -16.2 from -12.9, a pure carry cost for longs, not a cap. Copper contango narrowed to -0.0315 from -0.0455, partially reversing the flip flagged yesterday. Nat gas contango narrowed to -0.021 from -0.106. Heating oil backwardation widened to 0.3213 from 0.2834 — the distillate leg remains the tightest barrel in the complex.

Inventories. LME copper -875 MT d/d to 250,475 MT and SHFE warrants -721 MT d/d to 10,011 MT; COMEX registered -5,200 short tons d/d to 470,300 short tons. Silver is the outlier: COMEX registered +90,822 kg d/d to 99.2 Moz (3,085,467 kg) and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d to 1,490,865 kg — both rising into a falling price. Gold COMEX registered -1,866 kg d/d to 15.1 Moz (469,663 kg). SHFE aluminium warrants -6,880 MT d/d to 121,863 MT, extending the 5-report draw to -47,532 MT.

Positioning. CFTC managed money into 2026-09-22: copper net +82,522 (+17,416 w/w) with netPct 27.4% at the 97th percentile of five years — crowded long, and price has since fallen from the 6.93 20D high. Gold net 127,389 (-5,727 w/w) while price rose 1.01% — a divergence that flags weak sponsorship. Crude net 101,828 (-4,451 w/w) into a 10.15% price drop, netPct 5.5% at the 98th percentile of one year but only the 34th of five. Nat gas net -65,547 (+34,658 w/w) — shorts covering hard. Silver net 13,309 (+185 w/w), essentially unchanged.

Vol. WTI IV 53.74 vs RV20 41.2% → IV-RV +12.5 vol points (IV/RV 1.3): options are paying up for event risk. Gold GVZ 24.37 vs RV20 20.4% → +4.0 points (1.19), a modest premium with GVZ at the 31st percentile of one year. Silver IV 39.13 vs RV20 35.5% → +3.6 points (1.1), the cheapest relative premium of the three. VIX 16.04 at the 28th percentile keeps the macro vol backdrop subdued.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-01 22:00 / ET 10-01 10:00 — FOMC Member Waller Speaks — GC, SI, DXY — no forecast; headline risk only.
BJT 10-01 22:00 / ET 10-01 10:00 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (F 54.8, P 54.6) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 54.6-55.0.
BJT 10-01 22:00 / ET 10-01 10:00 — ISM Manufacturing Employment (F 51.5, P 51.2) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 51.2-51.8.
BJT 10-02 20:30 / ET 10-02 08:30 — Non-Farm Employment Change (F 90K, P 162K) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 18K-162K; the widest band of the week.
BJT 10-02 20:30 / ET 10-02 08:30 — Unemployment Rate (F 4.1%, P 4.1%) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 4.0-4.2%.
BJT 10-02 20:30 / ET 10-02 08:30 — Average Hourly Earnings m/m (F 0.3%, P 0.3%) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 0.2-0.4%.
BJT 10-05 22:00 / ET 10-05 10:00 — ISM Services PMI (F 54, P 55.4) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 52.6-55.4.
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — no forecast; the week's main rate-path event.

8. Risk Factors

Gold below 4143.1 (20D low). A settle under the 20D low would break the oversold-bounce thesis and open the 52W low at 3793.4; the 11th-percentile 20D position means there is little long inventory to cushion the move.
WTI below 88.68 (S1). With M1-M2 backwardation already compressed to 1.8 from 3.65, a settle below S1 would confirm that prompt tightness is gone and shift the curve from support to headwind.
Silver above 62.75 (R2). A settle above R2 would put price back inside the 20D range and invalidate the short; the 3.84% ATR means this can happen inside two sessions.
Copper positioning unwind. Managed money net length at the 97th percentile of five years with price already off the 6.93 20D high; a settle below 6.55 (S2) would likely trigger a disorderly long liquidation.
Non-Farm Payrolls at BJT 10-02 20:30. A print outside 18K-162K resets the rate path; the dollar index at 101.46 sits in the 95th percentile of its 20D range, so a hot print squeezes gold and silver simultaneously.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-01

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-01 — Long into 4,143 Support, Invalidation 4,132 | 2026-10-01

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-01: Gold Holds 4186 (settle), WTI Backwardation Narrows to 1.8

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