📅 2026-10-02 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-02 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-02 07:00:41 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-02
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-02: Brent Settles 102.58 Above 102.47 S1, WTI Backwardation Widens to 2.43

1) Brent settled 102.58 (+4.64% settle) and WTI 92.87 (+2.71% settle), with WTI M1-M2 backwardation widening to 2.43 from 1.8 — prompt tightness is the cleanest bullish signal on the board; watch WTI 94.77 (R1) and Brent 102.8 (R1).
2) Gold settled 4202.3 (+0.37% settle) but sits at the 14th percentile of its 20D range with managed money net length cut 5,727 lots into a rising tape — weak sponsorship; watch 4173.5 (S1) and 4143.1 (20D low).

Data revision (2026-10-09 11:31 EDT): after publication the closes below were updated to final exchange values. They affect trade ideas, the headline, spreads, or moved more than 0.5%; read the listed sections against the revised values.

- CC=F 10-01: 5448 → 5381 (-1.23%)

- DBI=F 10-01: 103 → 99.57 (-3.33%)

- GF=F 10-01: 334.08 → 336.7 (+0.78%)

- Plus 8 minor revision(s) (≤0.5%, conclusions unchanged); see the revision details on the page

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1) Crude led the board and the curve confirms it. Brent settled 102.58 (+4.64% settle), WTI settled 92.87 (+2.71% settle), and WTI M1-M2 backwardation widened to 2.43 from 1.8 (Δ +0.63). Prompt tightness plus a 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) is the cleanest bullish configuration on the board. Watch WTI 94.77 (R1); a settle below 89.88 (S1) kills it.

2) Gold is holding but nobody is sponsoring it. Gold settled 4202.3 (+0.37% settle) yet sits at the 14th percentile of its 20D range, and managed money cut net length 5,727 lots into a rising Tuesday-to-Tuesday window — a divergence. GVZ 23.32 sits at the 16th percentile, so optionality is cheap relative to realized. Watch 4173.5 (S1); a settle below 4143.1 (20D low) breaks the structure.

3) Silver's supply build is fighting a firm tape. Silver settled 61.18 (+1.01% settle) with COMEX registered +73,404 kg d/d and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d, but Asia is +0.32% at 61.37. The prior short from 61.02 is running. Watch 61.86 (R1) — a settle above it invalidates the bear case.

2. Best Trade Today

Long NYMEX WTI (CL=F) · entry 91.8 (limit) · stop 87.3 · target 96.6 · R:R 1:1.1 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 7/10

Thesis: WTI M1-M2 backwardation widened to 2.43 from 1.8 with the 3:2:1 crack at the 96th percentile 3Y, so pullbacks are being absorbed by physical tightness rather than momentum.
Invalidation: A Hormuz de-escalation headline or a European diesel reserve release would hit prompt barrels hardest; a settle below 89.88 (S1) invalidates.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4202.3 (+0.37%) but only the 14th percentile of the 20D range, with managed money net length cut 5,727 lots w/w into a rising price — weak sponsorship | key level: 4173.5 (S1); resistance 4226.9 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4143.1 (20D low) | vs last issue: changed from Bullish because the CFTC divergence (price up, net length down) and the 14th-percentile range position no longer support a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 61.18 (+1.01%) with COMEX registered +73,404 kg d/d and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d, ratio 68.35 still favouring gold | key level: 61.86 (R1); support 60.37 (S1) | invalidation: settle above 62.55 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 92.87 (+2.71%) with M1-M2 backwardation widening to 2.43 from 1.8 and the 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) | key level: 91.78 (pivot); support 89.88 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 89.88 | vs last issue: unchanged — buy-dips retained, entry zone lifted to 91.3-92.0.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 102.58 (+4.64%) with WTI-Brent at -7.61 (12th percentile 1Y) leaving Brent the tighter marker | key level: 102.69 (pivot); support 102.47 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 102.36 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 2.97 (-1.95%) with contango widening to -0.345 from -0.021 and the 20D position at 13.2% | key level: 2.94 (S1); resistance 3.01 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.05 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.54 (-1.26%) with LME stocks -1,075 MT d/d and SHFE warrants -721 MT d/d, but managed money net length up 17,416 lots w/w into a falling price — crowded at the 97th percentile 5Y | key level: 6.48 (S1); resistance 6.62 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.43 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1284 (-0.7%) at the 17th percentile of the 20D range with M1-M2 contango narrowing to -16.5 from -24 | key level: 1273.5 (S1); resistance 1294.8 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 1305.5 (R2) | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-01	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-02 07:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4202.3	+0.37%	-2.23%	4208.5	+0.15%
Silver	61.18	+1.01%	-4.42%	61.37	+0.32%
WTI Crude	92.87	+2.71%	-1.84%	93.03	+0.17%
Brent Crude	102.58	+4.64%	+2.35%	102.56	-0.02%
Natural Gas	2.97	-1.95%	-11.96%	2.95	-0.64%
Copper	6.54	-1.26%	-3.71%	6.57	+0.52%
Soybeans	1284	-0.7%	-2.54%	—	—
Corn	502.25	+0.3%	-4.79%	—	—
Wheat	682.75	+1.04%	-3.43%	—	—

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-01 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = last trade before 08:00 Beijing time, not a settlement; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Asia is quietly firmer across the metals complex: gold +0.15% at 4208.5, silver +0.32% at 61.37, copper +0.52% at 6.57 and palladium +0.69% at 1188.1 versus their settles. Crude is flat-to-marginal, with WTI +0.17% at 93.03 and Brent -0.02% at 102.56, so the prior session's energy strength is being held rather than extended. Nat gas is the notable soft spot, -0.64% at 2.95, extending the settle's -1.95% decline.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

SI=F SHORT entry 61.02 stop 62.75 target 59.29 (1-5d, conv 6) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 61.18 (unrealized -0.25%).
Stats (system-computed): 1 ideas · limit fill 1/1 (100%) · avg MFE +0.25R (n=1) · avg MAE 0.42R (n=1) · avg realized n/a.

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve. WTI M1-M2 backwardation widened to 2.43 from 1.8 (Δ +0.63), the strongest prompt signal on the board; Brent's own curve is not shown but the WTI-Brent spread at -7.61 (12th percentile 1Y) keeps Brent the tighter marker. Heating oil backwardation narrowed to 0.173 from 0.3213, and RBOB backwardation widened to 0.2178 from 0.137 — the product complex is rotating from distillate to gasoline tightness. Gold contango narrowed to -15.5 from -16.2, which is carry, not a signal. Nat gas contango widened sharply to -0.345 from -0.021, the clearest bearish curve move in the complex.

Inventories. Copper: LME -1,075 MT d/d to 249,400 MT, SHFE warrants -721 MT d/d to 10,011 MT, but COMEX registered +1,100 short tons d/d to 471,400 short tons — the COMEX build is the offset. Silver: COMEX registered +73,404 kg d/d to 101.56 Moz (3,158,871 kg) and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d to 1,490,865 kg, a two-venue build. Gold: COMEX registered +1,244 kg d/d to 15.14 Moz (470,907 kg). Aluminium SHFE warrants -6,880 MT d/d to 121,863 MT. Zinc LME -1,950 MT d/d to 121,600 MT.

Positioning. Copper managed money net +17,416 lots w/w to 82,522 (netPct 27.36%, crowding 69.05) while price fell — a divergence, and netPct sits at the 97th percentile 5Y, so the long is crowded. Gold net -5,727 lots w/w to 127,389 (netPct 30.86%, crowding 92.46) while price rose — weak sponsorship. Crude net -4,451 lots w/w to 101,828 (netPct 5.53%, crowding 21.83) into a -10.15% price move, so the long base is thin. Nat gas net +34,658 lots w/w to -65,547, still net short. Silver net +185 lots w/w to 13,309 (netPct 12.5%, crowding 55.01).

Vol. WTI IV 51.69 vs RV20 42.2% → IV-RV +9.5 vol pts (IV/RV 1.22), a modest event premium. Gold GVZ 23.32 vs RV20 20.4% → +2.9 vol pts (IV/RV 1.14) and GVZ at the 16th percentile 1Y, so gold optionality is cheap in absolute terms. Silver IV 37.23 vs RV20 35.8% → +1.4 vol pts (IV/RV 1.04), essentially fair. VIX 16.39 at the 35th percentile keeps the macro vol backdrop contained.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-02 20:30 / ET 10-02 08:30 — Non-Farm Employment Change, F 89K vs P 162K — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±73K.
BJT 10-02 20:30 / ET 10-02 08:30 — Average Hourly Earnings m/m, F 0.3% vs P 0.3% — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.1%.
BJT 10-02 20:30 / ET 10-02 08:30 — Unemployment Rate, F 4.1% vs P 4.1% — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.1%.
BJT 10-05 22:00 / ET 10-05 10:00 — ISM Services PMI SEP, F 54 vs P 55.4 — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±1.4.
BJT 10-07 04:30 / ET 10-06 16:30 — API Crude Oil Stock Change — CL, BZ.
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — CL, BZ.
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — CL, BZ.
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Minutes — GC, SI, DXY.

8. Risk Factors

Hormuz headline risk. A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz with fire reported; a further escalation lifts WTI toward 94.77 (R1), while a de-escalation sends it back to 89.88 (S1).
European diesel reserve release. The US Energy Secretary said he is “highly confident” Europe will release emergency diesel stocks; an actual release would pressure heating oil below 4.54 (S1) and drag crude with it.
Gold's 20D low at 4143.1. A settle below it confirms the weak-sponsorship divergence and opens 4110.8; a settle above 4226.9 (R1) would neutralize the bear case.
Silver's two-venue inventory build. COMEX registered +73,404 kg d/d and SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d; a settle above 62.55 (R2) would squeeze the short regardless of the build.
Copper crowding at the 97th percentile 5Y. Managed money net length rose 17,416 lots into a falling price; a settle below 6.43 (S2) risks a disorderly long liquidation toward 6.35 (20D low).

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-02

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-02 — Bearish Below Pivot 4198, GCZ26 | 2026-10-02

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-02: Brent Settles 102.58 Above 102.47 S1, WTI Backwardation Widens to 2.43

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