📅 2026-10-03 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-03 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-03 07:00:24 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-03
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-03: Gold Holds 4,143 Floor, WTI Backwardation Narrows

1) Gold settled 4162.3 (settle, -0.95%) at the 5th percentile of its 20D range with the 20D low at 4143.1 — the floor that has held all week; a settle below it opens 4086.5 (S2), while a reclaim of 4229.6 (R1) is needed to break the downtrend.
2) WTI settled 91.11 (settle, -1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.34 from 2.43 — prompt tightness is fading even as Brent settled 102.7 (settle, +0.38%) and the 3:2:1 crack sits at the 96th percentile; watch 88.28 (S1) as the bull's line.

Data revision (2026-10-09 11:31 EDT): after publication the closes below were updated to final exchange values. They affect trade ideas, the headline, spreads, or moved more than 0.5%; read the listed sections against the revised values.

- CC=F 10-02: 5609 → 5670 (+1.09%)

- DBI=F 10-02: 100.89 → 99.86 (-1.02%)

- KC=F 10-02: 290.75 → 288.75 (-0.69%)

- QG=F 10-02: 2.995 → 3.035 (+1.34%)

- Plus 9 minor revision(s) (≤0.5%, conclusions unchanged); see the revision details on the page

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Gold settled 4162.3 (settle, -0.95%), pinned at the 5th percentile of its 20D range (4143.1–4537.8). The 20D low at 4143.1 has held for five sessions while managed money net length was cut 5,727 lots w/w into a rising price (as-of 2026-09-22) — weak sponsorship, not accumulation. For futures, this is a coiled range: ATR14 is 89 (≈2.14% of price), so a single session can resolve it. Watch 4143.1 on a settle basis; below it, 4086.5 (S2) is the next shelf. A settle above 4229.6 (R1) is the first evidence the sellers are done.

2. WTI settled 91.11 (settle, -1.9%) and M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.34 from 2.43. Prompt tightness is bleeding even with the 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) — the refinery pull is not translating into front-month scarcity. Brent settled 102.7 (settle, +0.38%) and the WTI-Brent spread at -9.44 (6th percentile 1Y) keeps Brent the tighter marker. Watch 88.28 (S1) on WTI; a settle below it breaks the buy-dip structure.

3. Nat gas settled 3.04 (settle, +2.29%) with contango narrowing to -0.327 from -0.345. The 20D position is 27% and the Asia bar at 05:00 sits at 3.03 — the bounce is a squeeze inside a downtrend, not a reversal. Watch 3.09 (R1); a settle above it invalidates the short.

2. Best Trade Today

Long NYMEX WTI (CL=F) · entry 90.89 (limit) · stop 88.28 · target 96.34 · R:R 1:2.1 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 6/10

Thesis: WTI settled 91.11 with the 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) and Brent the tighter marker at a -9.44 WTI-Brent spread — buy dips at the pivot with support at 88.28.
Invalidation: A settle below 88.28 (S1) breaks the buy-dip structure and opens 85.44 (S2); M1-M2 backwardation has narrowed three sessions running.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4162.3 (-0.95%) at the 5th percentile of the 20D range with managed money net length cut 5,727 lots w/w into a rising price (as-of 2026-09-22) | key level: 4143.1 (20D low); resistance 4229.6 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4086.5 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged — the CFTC divergence and the low range position still argue against a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 60.42 (-1.24%) at the 5th percentile of the 20D range with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and the gold/silver ratio at 68.35, a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold | key level: 59.45 (S1); resistance 61.92 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 63.42 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 91.11 (-1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.34 from 2.43 and the 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y) | key level: 90.89 (pivot); support 88.28 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 88.28 | vs last issue: unchanged — buy-dips retained, entry zone 90.5-91.1.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 102.7 (+0.38%) with WTI-Brent at -9.44 (6th percentile 1Y) leaving Brent the tighter marker | key level: 101.39 (pivot); support 99.74 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 99.74 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.04 (+2.29%) with contango narrowing to -0.327 from -0.345 and the 20D position at 27% | key level: 3 (pivot); resistance 3.09 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.09 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.55 (+0.17%) at the 35th percentile of the 20D range with COMEX registered flat d/d at 471,400 short tons and LME stock -1,325 MT d/d, but managed money net length at the 97th percentile 5Y (as-of 2026-09-22) | key level: 6.5 (S1); resistance 6.61 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.46 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1278.3 (-0.45%) at the 8th percentile of the 20D range with M1-M2 contango widening to -16.75 from -16.5 | key level: 1272.4 (S1); resistance 1284.9 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 1291.6 (R2) | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-02	1D (settle)	5D (settle)
Gold	4162.3	-0.95%	-3.68%
Silver	60.42	-1.24%	-6.77%
WTI Crude	91.11	-1.9%	-1.41%
Brent Crude	102.7	+0.38%	+5.4%
Natural Gas	3.04	+2.29%	-5.89%
Copper	6.55	+0.17%	-3.21%
Soybeans	1278.3	-0.45%	-3.09%
Corn	497.75	-0.9%	-5.77%
Wheat	683	+0.04%	-2.88%

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-02 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. No Asia intraday snapshot was captured this session, so the Asia column is omitted — do not quote any Asia-session price in the body._

Asia is trading the report-date bar with nat gas the only clean read: the 05:00 print at 3.03 sits below the 3.04 settle, fading the +2.29% bounce. Precious metals are holding just above the 20D lows — gold's 4143.1 and silver's 59.99 remain the lines that matter on a settle basis. Crude is quiet after the -1.9% settle, with the backwardation narrowing the story rather than the flat price.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

CL=F LONG entry 91.8 stop 87.3 target 96.6 (1-5d, conv 7) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 91.11 (unrealized -0.75%).
NG=F SHORT entry 3.01 stop 3.11 target 2.9 (1-5d, conv 5) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 3.04 (unrealized -0.83%).
Stats (system-computed, quoted as-is): 2 ideas · limit fill 2/2 (100%) · avg MFE +0.14R (n=2) · avg MAE 0.62R (n=2) · avg realized n/a.

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve. WTI M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.34 from 2.43 (Δ -1.09), the third straight session of compression — prompt tightness is fading even with the 3:2:1 crack at 61.46 (96th percentile 3Y). Brent's own curve keeps it the tighter marker, with WTI-Brent at -9.44 (6th percentile 1Y). Nat gas contango narrowed to -0.327 from -0.345, a marginal improvement that does not change the shape. Gold contango narrowed to -15.3 from -15.5, pure carry. Copper contango widened to -0.026 from -0.019.

Inventories. LME copper stock fell 1,325 MT d/d to 248,075 MT, with COMEX registered flat at 471,400 short tons and SHFE warrants -721 MT d/d. LME zinc rose 2,375 MT d/d to 123,975 MT, the only build in the base complex. LME aluminium -750 MT d/d to 240,625 MT, with SHFE warrants -6,880 MT d/d. COMEX gold registered -1,555 Moz d/d to 15.09 Moz (469,352 kg); COMEX silver registered -5,599 Moz d/d to 101.38 Moz (3,153,273 kg) while SHFE silver warrants rose 30,504 kg d/d.

Positioning. Managed money copper net length rose 17,416 lots w/w to 82,522 (netPct 27.36%, 97th percentile 5Y) into a +6.09% price move — crowded, and the 5Y percentile says so. Crude net length fell 4,451 lots w/w to 101,828 (netPct 5.53%, 34th percentile 5Y) into a -10.15% price drop, so the selling was not positioning-driven. Gold net length fell 5,727 lots w/w to 127,389 (netPct 30.86%, 77th percentile 5Y) into a +1.01% price rise — the divergence flagged last issue persists. Nat gas net short shrank 34,658 lots w/w to -65,547 (netPct -3.57%). All CFTC data as-of 2026-09-22.

Vol. WTI IV 51.69 vs RV20 42.9% leaves IV-RV at +8.8 vol points (IV/RV 1.2) — a modest event premium. Gold IV 23.32 vs RV20 17% is +6.3 points (IV/RV 1.37), the widest ratio in the complex, though the GVZ 1Y percentile is only 16%. Silver IV 37.23 vs RV20 33.1% is +4.1 points (IV/RV 1.12), the cheapest relative optionality of the three. VIX at 16.39 (35th percentile 1Y) keeps the macro vol backdrop contained.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-05 22:00 / ET 10-05 10:00 — ISM Services PMI SEP (F 54, P 55.4) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 54 ± 1.4.
BJT 10-07 04:30 / ET 10-06 16:30 — API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — no published forecast; watch for a build above 3.0 mbbl.
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — no published forecast; prior week was +2,969 kbbl.
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — no published forecast; prior week was -1,686 kbbl.
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — no forecast; a hawkish read lifts DXY toward 102.21 (20D high).

8. Risk Factors

Gold breaks 4143.1 (20D low) on a settle. That would confirm the five-session floor has failed and open 4086.5 (S2); the 52W low at 3823.7 is the deeper reference.
WTI settles below 88.28 (S1). The buy-dip structure from the prior issue is invalidated there, with 85.44 (S2) the next shelf and the 20D low at 85.92 in between.
Nat gas settles above 3.09 (R1). That invalidates the short and puts the 20D high at 3.4 in play; ATR14 of 0.127 means one weather headline can cover the distance.
DXY pushes through 102.21 (20D high). The dollar sits at the 92nd percentile of its 20D range and the 100th percentile 1Y; a break higher pressures gold, silver and copper simultaneously.
FOMC Minutes (BJT 10-08 02:00) read hawkish. With the 10Y at 5.18% (100th percentile 1Y, stale as-of 2026-09-25), a hawkish tone lifts real rates and hits the precious complex hardest.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-03

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-03: Bearish While Below 4191.7 Pivot | 2026-10-03

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-03: Gold Holds 4,143 Floor, WTI Backwardation Narrows

本日のリスクマップ

銘柄別深度レポート 深度分析

過去のレポート

⟠ 今月の戦略バックテスト

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析