📅 2026-10-06 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-06 07:00:24 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-06
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-06: Gold Holds 4th Percentile, WTI Backwardation Narrows to 1.42

1) Gold settled 4156.8 (settle, -0.13%) at the 4th percentile of its 20D range with managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall; Asia trades 4168.1 (+0.27% vs settle) — the CFTC divergence and low range position still argue against a directional long; watch 4143.1 (20D low) on a settle basis.
2) WTI settled 89.43 (settle, -1.84%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y)

Data revision (2026-10-09 11:31 EDT): minor settlement revisions after publication; conclusions unchanged.

- Plus 9 minor revision(s) (≤0.5%, conclusions unchanged); see the revision details on the page

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Gold settled 4156.8 (settle, -0.13%) at the 4th percentile of its 20D range, with managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall. The positioning divergence and the depressed range position still argue against a directional long, even as Asia trades 4168.1 (+0.27% vs settle). Watch 4143.1 (20D low) on a settle basis; a settle below 4120.2 (S2) would invalidate the neutral stance.

2. WTI settled 89.43 (settle, -1.84%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68, while the 3:2:1 crack held at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y). Prompt tightness is easing but refining margins remain extreme, keeping the buy-dip structure intact; Asia is 89.25 (-0.2% vs settle). Watch 88.28 (S1) — a settle below it invalidates the bullish view.

3. Silver settled 61.3 (settle, +1.46%) at the 15th percentile of the 20D range, with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and COMEX registered -8,709 Moz d/d. The warrant build keeps the bearish case alive against a still-low range position; Asia is 61.42 (+0.19% vs settle). Watch 61.92 (R1) as resistance and 63.42 (R2) as the invalidation level.

2. Best Trade Today

Short COMEX白银 (SI=F) · entry 61.92 (limit) · stop 63.42 · target 59.45 · R:R 1:1.6 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 5/10

Thesis: Silver settled 61.3 at the 15th percentile of the 20D range with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and COMEX registered -8,709 Moz d/d, while the gold/silver ratio at 68.35 sits at a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold.
Invalidation: A settle above 63.42 (R2) invalidates the bearish view.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4156.8 (-0.13%) at the 4th percentile of the 20D range, managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall, GVZ 23.23 vs RV20 16.6% | key level: 4143.1 (20D low); resistance 4187 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4120.2 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged — the CFTC divergence and the low range position still argue against a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 61.3 (+1.46%) at the 15th percentile of the 20D range, SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d, gold/silver ratio 68.35 at a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold | key level: 59.45 (S1); resistance 61.92 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 63.42 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 89.43 (-1.84%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y) | key level: 90.02 (pivot); support 88.15 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 88.15 | vs last issue: changed from Bullish because the entry zone 90.5-91.1 was filled and the position is running; the backwardation narrowing to 1.42 is a mild negative but the crack at 64.65 keeps the buy-dip structure intact.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 100.22 (-1.99%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) and OPEC+ holding November output steady | key level: 100.28 (pivot); support 100.16 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 100.16 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.07 (+1.02%) with M1-M2 contango narrowing to -0.293 from -0.306 and managed money net -132,799 lots (-67,252 w/w) | key level: 3.05 (pivot); resistance 3.1 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.1 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.64 (+1.4%) at the 51st percentile of the 20D range, COMEX registered 471,400 short ton d/d 0, LME warehouse_stock 248,650 MT d/d +575 | key level: 6.62 (pivot); resistance 6.68 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.58 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1280.8 (+0.2%) at the 12th percentile of the 20D range, M1-M2 contango widening to -16.5 from -16.25 | key level: 1270.6 (S1); resistance 1294.1 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 1294.1 | vs last issue: unchanged.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-05	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-06 07:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4156.8	-0.13%	-0.28%	4168.1	+0.27%
Silver	61.3	+1.46%	-0.68%	61.42	+0.19%
WTI Crude	89.43	-1.84%	-3.42%	89.25	-0.2%
Brent Crude	100.22	-1.99%	+2.44%	100.24	+0.02%
Natural Gas	3.07	+1.02%	-1.29%	3.08	+0.42%
Copper	6.64	+1.4%	+0.11%	6.64	+0%
Soybeans	1280.8	+0.2%	-0.58%	—	—
Corn	497.25	-0.1%	-4.92%	—	—
Wheat	692.25	+1.35%	+0.51%	—	—

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-05 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = last trade before 08:00 Beijing time, not a settlement; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Asia is trading marginally higher across the metals complex relative to settle: gold at 4168.1 (+0.27% vs settle), silver at 61.42 (+0.19% vs settle), and copper flat at 6.64 (+0% vs settle). Crude is softer, with WTI at 89.25 (-0.2% vs settle) and Brent at 100.24 (+0.02% vs settle), while natural gas is at 3.08 (+0.42% vs settle). The moves are small relative to ATR and do not change any of the settle-based views above.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

ZS=F SHORT entry 1279.1 stop 1300.5 target 1236 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 1280.8
CL=F LONG entry 90.89 stop 88.28 target 96.34 (1-5d, conv 6) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 89.43 (unrealized -1.61%)
SI=F SHORT entry 61.92 stop 63.42 target 59.45 (1-5d, conv 5) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 61.3 (unrealized +1%)
NG=F SHORT entry 3.04 stop 3.14 target 2.86 (1-5d, conv 5) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 3.07 (unrealized -0.86%)

Stats (system-computed, quote as-is, no commentary): 4 ideas · limit fill 3/4 (75%) · avg MFE +0.38R (n=3) · avg MAE 0.51R (n=3) · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve — WTI M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.42 from 1.68 (Δ -0.26), a mild negative for prompt tightness but still backwardated. Gold contango narrowed to -14.4 from -15.2 (Δ +0.8), reflecting carry. Silver contango widened to -0.27 from -0.227 (Δ -0.043). Nat gas contango narrowed to -0.293 from -0.306 (Δ +0.013). Copper contango unchanged at -0.0315. Heating oil backwardation widened to 0.1515 from 0.1438 (Δ +0.008). RBOB backwardation narrowed to 0.1979 from 0.2005 (Δ -0.003). Soybeans contango widened to -16.5 from -16.25 (Δ -0.25).

Inventories — LME aluminum warehouse_stock 240,375 MT d/d -250 (-0.1%); SHFE aluminum warrant 121,863 MT d/d -6,880 (-5.3%). COMEX copper registered 471,400 short ton d/d 0 (+0.0%); LME copper warehouse_stock 248,650 MT d/d +575 (+0.2%); SHFE copper warrant 10,011 MT d/d -721 (-6.7%). COMEX gold registered 15.09 Moz (469,352 kg) d/d 0 (+0.0%); SHFE gold warrant 116,028 kg d/d -3 (-0.0%). COMEX silver registered 101.1 Moz (3,144,564 kg) d/d -8,709 (-0.3%); SHFE silver warrant 1,490,865 kg d/d +30,504 (+2.1%).

Positioning — CFTC managed money for the week to 2026-09-29: gold net 120,318 (Δ -7,071 w/w) with price -4.49% over the same window — a divergence as longs trimmed into weakness. Crude net 79,592 (Δ -22,236 w/w) with price -1.26% — heavy liquidation. Copper net 78,058 (Δ -4,464 w/w) with price -3.4%. Nat gas net -132,799 (Δ -67,252 w/w) with price -3.4% — shorts added aggressively. Silver net 7,614 (Δ -5,695 w/w) with price -8.08%. Gold netPct 29.6% sits at a 92.51 crowding percentile — crowded long. Nat gas netPct -7.45% is at a 38.38 crowding percentile.

Vol — WTI OVX 51 vs RV20 43.4% → IV-RV +7.6 vol pts (IV/RV 1.18), a modest event premium. Gold GVZ 23.23 vs RV20 16.6% → IV-RV +6.6 vol pts (IV/RV 1.4), the richest premium in the complex. Silver VXSLV 36.9 vs RV20 33.7% → IV-RV +3.2 vol pts (IV/RV 1.09), close to fair. VIX 15.31 at the 15th percentile 1Y. Gold optionality is the most expensive relative to realized; silver is the cheapest.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-07 04:30 / ET 10-06 16:30 — API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Meeting Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — surprise threshold: any hawkish/dovish tilt beyond consensus
BJT 10-08 16:30 / ET 10-08 04:30 — FOMC Member Waller Speaks — GC, SI, DXY — surprise threshold: any rate-path guidance shift
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China CPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China PPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)

8. Risk Factors

Gold: a settle below 4120.2 (S2) would break the 20D low and invalidate the neutral stance; a settle above 4187 (R1) would signal a range breakout.
WTI: a settle below 88.15 (S1) would invalidate the bullish view; the backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68 is a warning that prompt tightness is easing.
Silver: a settle above 63.42 (R2) would invalidate the bearish view; the gold/silver ratio at 68.35 (14th percentile 5Y) means silver has been structurally strong vs gold over time, so a sharp ratio reversal is a risk.
Nat gas: a settle above 3.1 (R1) would invalidate the bearish view; managed money net -132,799 lots (-67,252 w/w) is already heavily short, so a short-covering squeeze is a risk.
Macro: the FOMC Minutes on BJT 10-08 02:00 and China CPI/PPI on BJT 10-14 09:30 are the two highest-impact events; a hawkish Minutes print would pressure gold and silver, while a weak China PPI would pressure copper.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-06

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-06 — Oversold Bounce Setup, LONG | 2026-10-06

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-06: Gold Holds 4th Percentile, WTI Backwardation Narrows to 1.42

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