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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Backwardation & Tight Distillates | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on Brent Crude (BZ=F) driven by a steep prompt-term backwardation, structurally tight distillate inventories, and resilient refinery utilization, with a daily close below 99.02 serving as the invalidation level. The market is currently trading at 100.2 (settle 10-07), supported by a 20-day channel that has held above 93.68, and an Asia session bid of 101 as of 08:00 on 2026-10-08. While the broader macro environment remains volatile, the physical fundamentals of the crude complex point to sustained upward pressure. The 3:2:1 crack spread at 69.72 USD/bbl reflects robust refining economics, and the oil/gold ratio sits at a 1-year high of 92.06%, signaling relative strength in energy versus safe-haven assets. We target a move toward the 103.77 R2 level, contingent on holding the 99.02 support. This thesis relies on the continuity of current supply constraints and demand resilience, with a specific focus on the distillate deficit which has widened to -12.0% versus the 5-year average. Any sustained break below the 99.02 S1 pivot would invalidate the bullish narrative, suggesting a deeper correction toward 97.83.