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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FCPO=F Deep Dive | Bearish Breakdown to 4472 | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bearish stance on FCPO=F, targeting a decline toward 4472 with invalidation at a daily close above 4591. This outlook is anchored in sustained downward momentum, a technical breakdown below key support levels, and weakening demand fundamentals that favor a surplus. The instrument has fallen 9.12% over the past 20 days, trading well below its 20-day moving average, while the oil/gold ratio sits at a 92nd percentile, signaling significant relative weakness. A daily close above the R2 pivot at 4591 would negate this thesis. Clients should consider short positions with tight risk management, aiming for the S2 support zone. The current market structure offers a clear path lower, supported by both technical and fundamental evidence.