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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | Bullish on Oversold Rebound | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on FEF=F, targeting a rebound from current oversold levels as technical support aligns with fundamental supply constraints. The commodity is trading near multi-month lows with significant downside momentum exhausted, while inventory data suggests tightening fundamentals that should support prices in the near term. A sustained break above the 20-day resistance at 98.25 would confirm the reversal, whereas a daily close below 91.25 invalidates the thesis. Current positioning shows reduced long exposure, creating room for short-covering rallies. Cross-asset metrics indicate relative weakness in precious metals compared to copper, but FEF=F's specific supply-demand dynamics offer a distinct opportunity. The path of least resistance appears upward from these depressed levels, supported by technical oversold conditions and potential macro catalysts.