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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Lean Hogs (HE=F) Deep Dive | Bearish on Weak Demand & Carry | 2026-10-08

We maintain a Bearish bias on Lean Hogs (HE=F) as the market grapples with persistent oversupply and softening demand signals, with a reversal condition defined by a daily close above 70.733. The instrument settled at 69.1 [2026-10-07], marking a 1.81% daily decline and a 7.37% drop over the past 20 sessions, reflecting a structural shift away from the previous year's highs. While the weekly bar from 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-02 closed at 70.125 (+1.59% w/w), the current week remains unfinished, and the immediate price action suggests further downside pressure as the contract tests support levels near 68.492. The term structure indicates a backwardation with a 10.53% slope, yet the 20-day channel remains negative, and volatility metrics suggest limited immediate upside catalysts. We see the path of least resistance as lower, targeting the 20-day low of 67.95 before any meaningful technical rebound can be considered.