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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

VX=F Deep Dive | Volatility Compression Signals Long Bias | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on VX=F, targeting a reversion to the 20-day high as volatility compresses following a sharp drop. The primary thesis rests on three pillars: the current price is trading near the lower bound of its 20-day range, the 5-day decline has exhausted momentum, and implied volatility remains elevated relative to realized volatility, suggesting optionality is cheap. A daily close below 16.68 would invalidate this setup. The instrument settled at 17.35 on October 7, reflecting a 1.46% daily gain despite a 2.53% drop over the past five days. This divergence between short-term weakness and recent daily strength indicates a potential bottoming process. The 20-day channel spans 16.4 to 19.6, with the current price at the 30th percentile of that range. With the 52-week low at 15.85 and high at 30.19, the market is in the lower half of its annual range but showing signs of stabilization. The Asia session on October 8 held steady at 17.351, confirming the lack of immediate downside pressure. We expect a move back toward the 18.08 pivot as mean reversion takes hold.