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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

XAG=F (XAG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20-Day Channel Floor at Risk | 2026-10-08

Call: Bearish silver (XAG=F) — the 20-day channel floor at 58.964 [settle 10-07] is the line that matters, and a settle below it opens 57.559 (S2) and then the 52-week base at 45.528; invalidation is a settle back above pivot P 60.068 that holds. Three reasons. First, trend and momentum: settle 59.766 [10-07] is down 11.14% over 20 sessions and sits at the 9th percentile of the 20-day range 58.964–67.913, with the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closing at 60.343, -6.15% w/w — the burden of proof is on the bulls. Second, positioning: the 20-day slide has been driven by long liquidation rather than fresh shorts, so the market is not yet washed out and rallies remain sellable. Third, cross-asset: the gold/silver ratio at 69.95 [2026-10-08] sits at the 80th percentile of its 1-year range, meaning silver is lagging gold, not leading it, and copper/gold at 1.58 (1Y percentile 96.83%) shows the pro-growth impulse is being expressed in industrial metals, not in silver. Asia trade on 2026-10-08 at 08:00 is 59.78 (+0.02% vs settle), a flat, low-conviction bounce inside the prior day's range.