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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

YM=F (YM=F) Deep Dive | Neutral-to-long base, 50859 floor defines the call | 2026-10-08

Call: NEUTRAL with a long-lean — YM=F holds a constructive base above the 20-day low at 50859 but lacks the momentum to break the 52844 20-day high, so the trade is to buy the 50859–51137 shelf and stand aside if 50859 fails on a settled basis. Three reasons: (1) price sits at 51449 [settle 10-07], only 29.7% of the 20-day 50859–52844 channel, with 5D +0.33% showing stabilization after the 20D -1.86% drawdown; (2) ATR14 578.07 (1.12% of price) against RV20 10.8% means realized movement is compressed, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closed at 51477, -1.32% w/w, with the current week unfinished at 51449; (3) the macro backdrop is mildly supportive — DXY 102.11 and 10Y at 5.23% [2026-10-08], with VIX 15.08 [settle 10-07] at the 12th percentile, i.e. no equity-stress impulse to force a futures breakdown. Invalidation: a settled break below 50859 (20-day low) turns the stance outright bearish toward the 52-week 45052 region; a settled reclaim of 51810 (R1) opens 52171 (R2) and then 52844.