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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybean Oil (ZL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Technical Support & Margin Strength | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on Soybean Oil (ZL=F) as the market stabilizes near key technical support while underlying crush margins remain robust. The primary catalyst is the resilience of US soybean crush margins, which have expanded to the 61st percentile over the past year, signaling sustained demand for crushing despite price volatility. Technically, the contract is holding above the S1 pivot at 66.787 (settle), suggesting that selling pressure is being absorbed by buyers at lower levels. While the broader 20-day trend remains negative, the recent consolidation within the 20-day channel indicates a potential bottoming process. We target a retest of the 20-day moving average at 66.61 (settle) as a support floor, with a break above 68.393 (Pivot P) required to confirm a trend reversal. Invalidation occurs if price decisively closes below 65.893 (S2), which would signal a breakdown of the current support structure and open the door to deeper corrections.