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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Margin Support | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on Soybeans (ZS=F) as the market stabilizes near key technical support while fundamental drivers, particularly robust crush margins, underpin the downside. The current setup suggests a rebound from oversold conditions, with the 20-day channel acting as a dynamic floor. While macro headwinds persist, the underlying supply-demand mechanics favor higher prices in the near term. A sustained break below 1283.5 invalidates this view. The 20-day channel, currently ranging from 1273.25 to 1335.25, provides a clear framework for mean reversion. With implied volatility elevated relative to realized volatility, option markets are pricing in potential upside surprises. Seasonality also supports a positive bias, with historical data showing an average gain of 1.96% over the next 20 sessions. We expect prices to test the upper end of the 20-day channel, targeting 1316, provided the 1283.5 support holds. This call is based on a confluence of technical oversold conditions, strong crush margins, and favorable seasonal patterns.