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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Oversold Conditions | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on Wheat (ZW=F) with a target of 714.33, invalidating if price sustains below 670.83. This call rests on three pillars: technical oversold conditions within a defined 20-day channel, a supportive seasonal backdrop, and a contango structure that limits downside risk from roll costs. The current price of 686.5 represents a bounce from the 20-day low of 670.75, offering a favorable risk-reward setup for longs. While the 20-day trend remains negative at -5.8%, the recent 5-day gain of +1.59% suggests a tactical reversal is underway. We expect the market to test the upper channel resistance at 743.5, with immediate targets near the R2 pivot of 714.33. The primary risk remains a breakdown below the S2 support at 670.83, which would invalidate the rebound thesis and signal further downside towards the 52-week low of 524.71.