本报告来源： MacroTerms.com

数据截止: 2026-09-30 · 结算口径: 交易所最终日结算价

000300.SS Deep Dive | Bearish on Break of 4329 | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bearish stance on 000300.SS, contingent on a sustained break below the 4329.3 support level. The instrument is trading at 4357.62 (settle 2026-09-30), reflecting a 5D decline of 4.11% and a 20D drop of 5.5%, indicating persistent downward pressure. Technical structure shows price trapped below the 20-day moving average at 4323.57, with the recent weekly close of 4357.62 (-1.84% w/w) confirming weakness. Fundamentally, the market faces headwinds from elevated inventory levels relative to historical averages and a lack of bullish catalysts in the supply-demand balance. Positioning data suggests crowded long exposure, increasing the risk of a liquidation cascade if key support fails. Cross-asset ratios, particularly the copper/gold ratio at a 1Y 97th percentile, signal relative strength in gold over copper, further weighing on copper futures. A break below 4329.3 opens the path to 4323.57 and potentially lower, while a reclaim above 4370.19 would invalidate this view.