本报告来源： MacroTerms.com

数据截止: 2026-10-07 · 结算口径: 交易所最终日结算价

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Supply Tightness | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on Copper (HG=F) as the market prices in a structural deficit driven by tightening global inventories and resilient demand, with a clear invalidation level at 6.5612. The metal is trading near the 20-day pivot of 6.6432, supported by a 5-day gain of 0.42% despite a 20-day decline of 3.47%. ATR14 stands at 0.1161, indicating a full daily range of approximately 1.75% of price, while RV20 sits at 25.5%, suggesting moderate volatility. The copper/gold ratio is elevated at 1.58, trading in the 97th percentile over the last year, signaling relative strength. We see the primary catalyst as the drawdown in LME and SHFE stocks, which contrasts with the stable COMEX levels. The technical setup favors a breakout above 6.6873, with targets extending towards the 20-day high of 6.9285. However, a breach below 6.5612 would invalidate the bullish thesis, pointing to a retest of the 20-day low. The current positioning shows managed money net longs at the 69th percentile, indicating a crowded trade that requires caution but does not preclude further upside if fundamentals hold.