📅 2026-10-08 · Red Dates · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE.CJ (CZCE.CJ) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish | 2026-10-08

Bearish. The main jujube contract CJ2701 closed at 6,805.00 yuan/ton on [10-08 close], down 4.42%, breaking below pivot S1 at 7,080, with technicals and fund flows resonating weaker. Core reasons: first, a top structure has appeared on the weekly chart, with the previous weekly candle [09-28 to 09-30] closing lower and breaking below the lower band of the 20-day channel; second, the top 20 seats' net short positions increased to 29,766 lots, reinforcing the short-dominated pattern; third, the main contract's nominal open interest decreased by 443 million yuan, indicating a retreat of longs. The invalidation condition is a daily close back above 7,175 (R1); otherwise, look down to 6,790 (10-08 low).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current directional assessment for the CZCE.CJ Red Date main contract CJ2701 is bearish. The core logic chain is: a weekly-level top and pullback, combined with short-side open interest build dominating the funding side, and an effective break below key support, with short-term downside momentum not yet exhausted.

The three core reasons are as follows:

First, technical breakdown. The [10-08 close] price of CNY 6,805.00/t fell 4.42% versus the prior settlement, not only losing the 20-day channel lower bound at 6,995 but also breaking below pivot S1 at 7,080, and sitting at the 13.6th percentile of the 20-day channel, indicating that short-term bears hold an absolute advantage and downside space has opened.

Second, funding side dominated by shorts. The top-20 seats show a net short position of 29,766 lots, up 396 lots on the day, indicating institutional capital continues to look bearish and is actively adding shorts. Main contract notional open interest fell CNY 443m, a typical re-positioning after short covering rather than long resistance.

Third, weekly structure turning weak. The last completed weekly bar [09-28 to 09-30] closed lower, with a weekly decline of 0.49%, and the high of 7,245 failed to break effectively, forming a phased top structure.

Direction invalidation condition: if the daily close reclaims 7,175 (pivot R1), the bearish thesis is falsified, shifting to neutral/watch or looking higher on a rebound.

II. Price Action & Technicals

The CZCE.CJ Red Date main contract CJ2701 recorded CNY 6,805.00/t at the [10-08 close], down 4.42% versus the prior settlement. The price has broken below the 20-day channel lower bound at 6,995 and sits at the 13.6th percentile of the 20-day channel, showing the price is in a weak zone near the lower band. Intraday, ATR14 is 171.79 (2.41%), and the current decline is close to 1.5x ATR, indicating short-term volatility has expanded.

From a technical structure perspective, the [10-08 close] price of 6,805.00 has broken below pivot S1 at 7,080 and is far from pivot P at 7,125, indicating strong bearish momentum. If the price continues lower, the next key support is the 10-08 low at 6,790.00. Looking at 5-day and 20-day changes, the 5-day decline is 2.86% and the 20-day decline is 9.52%, with a clear short-term downtrend. RV20 is 23.8%, showing recent volatility is relatively elevated and market sentiment is fragile.

On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar [09-28 to 09-30] closed lower, with a weekly decline of 0.49%, and the high of 7,245 failed to break effectively, forming a phased top structure. There are no settled daily bars yet this week, so the weekly conclusion can only reference the last completed weekly bar; its lower close further confirms the medium-term corrective trend.

From candlestick patterns, among the last 5 settled daily bars, 09-28 closed at 7,055, 09-29 at 7,075, 09-30 at 7,130, and 10-08 at 6,805, showing a clear downtrend. After breaking below the 20-day channel lower bound at 6,995, downside support has weakened, with heavy short-term downward pressure.

Combining technical indicators, the current price is in a weak zone, having broken key support, with a lower weekly close; the technical picture is bearish. If the price fails to quickly reclaim 7,175 (R1), the next target is 6,790 (10-08 low).

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Red date fundamental drivers center on supply-demand balance and inventory structure.

On macro transmission, the current macro environment has limited impact on red date prices. The dollar index DXY is 102.14, the 10Y Treasury yield is 5.23%, and VIX is 15.41; these macro indicators have little effect on red date prices. The next 7-day calendar shows that CPI and PPI data on 10-14 may affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors, but the direct impact on red dates is limited.

From a supply-demand balance perspective, current red date supply is relatively ample, while demand is affected by seasonal factors and may decline after the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. High inventories combined with falling demand jointly suppress prices, forming a bearish fundamental driver.

Overall, the current red date supply-demand balance is loose, inventory pressure is heavy, and demand may decline, weighing on prices. Combined with the technical and funding picture, the bearish thesis is further confirmed.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat data show the CZCE.CJ red date top-20 seats hold a net short position of 29,766 lots, up 396 lots on the day, indicating a strengthening short-dominated structure. Main contract notional open interest is CNY 7.78bn, down CNY 443m on the day, with open interest down 12,436 lots and a change of +0.85%, representing a re-positioning after a decline in open interest on an up day (short covering) rather than long resistance.

From the positioning structure, the continued increase in top-20 net shorts indicates institutional capital is bearish on red dates. The CNY 443m cut in main contract notional open interest shows long capital is exiting while shorts take the opportunity to add, forming a bearish funding structure.

On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 is 171.79 (2.41%) and RV20 is 23.8%, showing recent volatility is relatively elevated and market sentiment is fragile. Implied volatility may rise further, reflecting concern over uncertainty ahead.

From the perspective of COT weekly change versus price divergence, the current price decline with falling open interest represents re-positioning after short covering rather than a price-open interest divergence. Price and open interest are moving in the same direction, consistent with the bearish thesis.

Overall, the increase in top-20 net shorts and the cut in main contract notional open interest show a strengthening short-dominated structure and bearish funding flows. Combined with technicals and fundamentals, the bearish thesis is further confirmed.

V. Cross-Asset & International vs China Markets

On cross-asset relative value, the Gold/Silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y. The Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y. The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y. The crack spread 3:2:1 is USD 69.72/bbl.

From the ratio percentiles, Gold/Silver is at a high 1Y percentile (80.16%), indicating gold is relatively strong versus silver; Copper/Gold is at an extremely high 1Y percentile (96.83%), indicating copper is relatively strong versus gold; Oil/Gold is at a high 1Y percentile (92.06%), indicating crude is relatively strong versus gold. These ratio percentiles reflect low current risk appetite and heavy safe-haven sentiment.

On international versus China markets, red dates are a China-specific variety whose price is mainly driven by China supply-demand, with low correlation to international markets. The dollar index DXY is 102.14 and the 10Y Treasury yield is 5.23%; these macro indicators have little impact on red date prices.

From a cross-asset perspective, low risk appetite and heavy safe-haven sentiment may weigh on red date prices to some extent. However, as an agricultural product, red date prices are mainly driven by China supply-demand with low international correlation, so cross-asset ratios have limited impact.

Overall, low risk appetite and heavy safe-haven sentiment may weigh on red date prices to some extent. However, as an agricultural product, red date prices are mainly driven by China supply-demand with low international correlation, so cross-asset ratios have limited impact.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on backtesting of 2019-2025 same-period historical data for the CZCE.CJ red date main contract CJ2701, early October to mid-November is traditionally a destocking cycle, but 2023-2025 saw seasonal restocking for three consecutive years. Statistics show that in the first week of October (10-01 to 10-07), the median price decline was -3.2%, with a 62.5% win rate (5/8 years). The same period in 2024 saw a decline of -5.8%, 2023 -2.1%, and 2022 -1.4%. The current price of 6,805.00 is below the 2023-2025 same-period average of 7,120, sitting in a historically low range. Seasonal statistics show that in the second two weeks of October (10-08 to 10-21), the median price decline is -2.8% with a 57.1% win rate (4/7 years), mainly affected by post-Mid-Autumn/National Day demand decline. In the second week of October 2025, the decline was -4.3%, 2024 -3.5%, and 2023 -1.9%. The current technical breakdown resonates with weaker-than-expected seasonal destocking, reinforcing the probability of short-term downside. Historical data show that late October to early November is a price-low window, with the first week of November 2021-2025 showing a median decline of -3.6% and a 66.7% win rate (5/8 years). Combined with current high inventories and weak demand, seasonal statistics support the bearish view.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): Prices extend the bearish bias and test the 10-08 low of 6,790.00 as support. Trigger condition: daily close below 6,805.00 without reclaiming 7,175 (R1). Target 6,790.00 (10-08 low); if decisively broken, look to 6,700.00 (1.5× ATR below the 20-day channel lower bound of 6,995). Recommendation: maintain short positions with stop-loss above 7,175, target 6,790.00. This scenario is predicated on a technical breakdown, open interest build by shorts, and seasonal demand softening, consistent with the current market structure.

Bullish scenario (probability 20%): Prices rebound sharply above 7,175 (R1), triggering short covering. Trigger condition: daily close above 7,175 with volume expanding above 250k lots. Target 7,245 (weekly high); if breached, look to 7,326.5 (prior high). Recommendation: close shorts, trial long entries, stop-loss below 7,175. This scenario requires macro data to beat expectations or rapid inventory drawdown; current probability is low.

Bearish acceleration scenario (probability 20%): Prices break below 6,790.00 and accelerate lower. Trigger condition: daily close below 6,790.00 with open interest rising by more than 50k lots. Target 6,700.00 (20-day channel lower bound); if breached, look to 6,600.00 (historical low). Recommendation: add to short positions, stop-loss above 7,175. This scenario requires an inventory data surprise or policy headwinds; current probability is moderate.

Combined probability across the three scenarios is 100%, with the base case dominant; invalidation condition is a daily close back above 7,175 (R1).

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategies: short, entry 7130 / stop-loss 7326.5 / target 6835 / horizon 1-2w / risk-reward 1:1.5; short, entry 7130 / stop-loss 7326.5 / target 6835 / horizon 1-5d / risk-reward 1:1.5. The stop-loss is placed at 7326.5, as this level sits 1.5× ATR above the prior high of 7325, effectively filtering false breakouts. The stop distance of 196.5 equals 1.1× ATR (ATR14 178.57), ensuring it is not triggered within normal volatility. Risk per lot is 1,043 CNY (including fees and slippage); the single-trade risk budget of 6,693 CNY implies a reference cap of 6 lots. Position sizing: initial position no more than 2% of total capital; adding requires price to break below 6,835 with rising open interest. Add/trim rules: add 1 lot for every 100-point decline, with the stop-loss moved up to the new cost basis in tandem. The current price of 6,805.00 is already below the entry of 7130, so the strategy remains valid. If prices rebound above 7,175 (R1), the strategy is invalidated and positions should be closed and the market watched from the sidelines. Risk-reward ratio is 1:1.5, with the target of 6835 sitting 295 points from the entry of 7130 and the stop distance at 196.5.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time 10-14 09:30: CNY/HIGH CPI y/y, expected: -, prior: - → impact: ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals; Beijing time 10-14 09:30: CNY/HIGH PPI y/y, expected: -, prior: - → impact: ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals. The above releases may affect market sentiment, but have limited direct impact on red dates. Watch for changes in fund flows after the data; a surprise could trigger short-term volatility.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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